Mock 10/22/2021

[kccrow]

Just throwing something out for fun at the 1/3 point of the season...

Chiefs make the playoffs but lose in the divisional round

Offseason Moves:

Release: LB A. Hitchens, ER F. Clark

Let Walk: SS T. Mathieu, DT J. Reed, OL L. Duvernay-Tardif, OL M. Remmers, SS D. Sorensen, QB C. Henne, LB B. Niemann, OL K. Long, TE B. Bell, WR D. Robinson, ER A. Okafor, OL A. Blythe, RB J. McKinnon, WR M. Kemp, LB D. O'Daniel, SS A. Watts

Minimal/ERFA Re-Sign: QB S. Buechele, FB M. Burton, TE J. Fortson, LB D. Harris, CB D. Baker, CB C. Lammons, LS J. Winchester, OT P. Tega-Wanogho, RB D. Gore, OG A. Wylie, WR B. Pringle, CB M. Hughes, RB D. Williams, WR D. Fountain,

Re-Sign:
WR J. Gordon - 1 y 3.0 m (1.5m in per game roster bonuses and 500k in workout bonus + minimum salary).
DT D. Nnadi - 1 y 3.5 m
CB C. Ward - 4 y 41.5 m w/ 23.5 m guaranteed

Franchise Tag: LT O. Brown Jr. - 16.7 m guaranteed. Based on what I've seen so far, if I'm Veach I'm not committing $100 m to Brown until he proves he can drop some weight and get quicker on the edge. With that, the Chiefs can't afford to draft a LT yet either, so I'm locking Veach into the franchise tag option.

Extension: WR T. Hill - 4 y 101.0 m with 56.5 m guaranteed + convert 2022 roster bonus to signining bonus.

Restructure: QB P. Mahomes - Convert roster bonus to signing bonus

Sign:
As a preface, I'm not enamored with the pass rush talent that is hitting the market. There just isn't much for the under 30 crowd and you can't go handing big deals out to 33-year-olds.
DE D. Barnett (PHI) - 3 y 25.0 m w/ 11.0 m guaranteed - He gets some silly penalties, which likely drives his price down, but he brings energy and a decent pass rush.
LB N. Morrow (LV) - 2 y 10.0 m w/ 6.5 m guaranteed - He got banged up and probably doesn't get as much on the market as he would have. Looks like a solid rival pickup that can cover as an off-ball backer.
FS M. Williams (NO) - 4 y 71.0 m w/ 38.0 m guaranteed - I get it, you want Mathieu back. If I'm Veach and I'm going to hand a market contract out to a safety, I'm giving it to a 26-year-old playmaker rather than one that's 30. This move puts Thornhill at SS where his speed on the blitz and tackling can be an asset.
DE D. Fowler Jr. (ATL) - 1 y 6.5 m w/ 3.0 m guaranteed - Another guy that hasn't quite lived up to expectations over the years but can provide a pass rush presence on the cheap.
NB M. Stewart (CLE) - 1 y 1.5 m w/ 500k guaranteed - Quietly a really solid nickle safety that got banged up this year a bit.
OL G. Christian (HOU) - 1 y 1.5 m - Starting experience at LT in the league never hurts. He's probably not quite starter material, but he could be our next Remmers.
OL W. Clapp (NO) - 1 y 1.5 m w/ 500k guaranteed - A very solid jack-of-all-trades lineman that will give you quality reps at OC and OG if needed.

Draft:
1. ER Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina (6'4" 260)
The Chiefs probably end up out of range for Thibodeau (duh), Hutchinson, and Johnson so I have them going with Enegbare. I think Enegbare is that type of player you want in terms of going full tilt every snap, plus he has great getoff and a well-built frame that allows him to stay stout against the run.
2. LB Damone Clark, Louisiana State (6'4" 236)
Clark is an athletic linebacker that can match up with TEs and RBs and is pretty solid coming downhill. I might have him underrated. It may seem counterproductive to draft Clark and sign Morrow, but it's part about being able to put athletes on the field in situations and the fact that Gay hasn't been as available as you'd like and also looking at developing for the future.
3. WR Romeo Doubs, Nevada (6'2' 200)
Doubs is long, smooth receiver that can get over the top of defense and is a really good red zone target. I think he'll be underrated coming out of Nevada, but he should probably go earlier.
4. CB Coby Bryant, Cincinnati (6'1' 198)
Bryant's lack of deep speed wont' be for every team, but he's a good cover corner with good technique and ball skills as well as being a plus tackler. His size and ability to play man coverage will likely appeal to KC on the outside.
6. SS Smoke Monday, Auburn (6'1" 204)
Monday plays a bit interchangeably on Auburn's defense but he seems to be a much better player closer to the LOS. Monday has alot of athleticism and alot of passion but those both can lead to him making some questionable decisions at times. He's definitely moldable and could be a really good player in a limited role in the box that expands over time.
7. RB Greg Bell, San Diego State (6'0' 200)
Bell is an explosive, fast, elusive back that can take any play the distance but has the unfortunate distinction of playing for SDSU (Nebraska tranfer). He did put up over 100 yards on both Arizona and Utah this year though. He's one of those MAC guys I love ala Aaron Jones a few years back.
7 (f/NE). WR Danny Gray, Southern Methodist (5'11" 190)
Gray looks like he could end up being a solid slot option in the NFL with his speed and quickness. He's produced some high-quality stats the past two seasons with some big yards per catch.
7 (f/ MIN). DT Matthew Butler, Tennessee (6'4" 291)
Probably a fringe player but he has some quickness to him and could develop.

Post-draft cap space around 6.5 m

Roster:
QB: P. Mahomes, S. Buechele
RB: C. Edwards-Helaire, D. Williams, G. Bell, D. Gore, M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, J. Fortson
WR: T. Hill, J. Gordon, M. Hardman, R. Doubs, C. Powell, B. Pringle, D. Gray, D. Fountain
OL: O. Brown Jr., J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, L. Niang, N. Allegretti, P. Tego-Wanogho, G. Christian, W. Clapp, A. Wylie

ST H. Butker, T. Townsend, J. Winchester

ER D. Barnett, D. Fowler, M. Danna, K. Enegbare, J. Kaindoh
DT C. Jones, D. Nnadi, K. Saunders, T. Wharton, M. Butler
LB W. Gay, N. Bolton, N. Morrow, D. Clark, D. Harris
CB C. Ward, L. Sneed, R. Fenton, C. Bryant, M. Hughes, D. Baker, C. Lammons
DB M. Williams, J. Thornhill, M. Stewart, S. Monday

[Stryker]

So question. Where do you think we will be drafting? What position in the draft? Teens, twenty's? Based on your assessment.

[Chris Meck]

I actually like Ward, but there's no way in hell I'm signing him for 2022 at anywhere near market value when I've got Sneed, Fenton, Baker, and Hughes. I think CB is a position where we're going to need to draft, develop, and churn.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Stryker

So question. Where do you think we will be drafting? What position in the draft? Teens, twenty's? Based on your assessment.

Well, 8 teams left in the Divisional round of the playoffs, 4 move on to the Championship round. That is Pick 25 to 28. It'll depend on record vs the other losers.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Well, 8 teams left in the Divisional round of the playoffs, 4 move on to the Championship round. That is Pick 25 to 28. It'll depend on record vs the other losers.

that's probably about right.

If we don't win the SB this year, it won't be because of our corners. It'll be because of our D-line, non-existent pass rush and poor gap discipline against the run.

With the current rules, I don't think corners are worth what they cost on the free agent market. The effective difference between a decent corner and a great one is not enough to justify the price difference.

I'd put money and draft resources into pass rushers primarily. The one coverage area I would prioritize would be coverage LB's as they're rare and allow you to be able to do so many things with a defense. But as for corners? Nah. The mid round and later picks along with reclamation projects we've been successful with so far is a good plan.

[duncan_idaho]

I like it a lot and would like it with Doubs in the second round instead, too.

I will bet on the "over" of the Chiefs making it past the divisional round, though.