***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Donger

The Florida Department of Health is reporting 10,109 additional coronavirus cases, bringing the state total to 169,106, according to data released by the state.

Today's numbers mark a new record daily high of infections in the state of Florida since the start of the pandemic. The previous record was set on Saturday, when the start reported just more than 9,500 new cases.

What are the odds they break NY's daily record? I am thinking they will do it by next week.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Yeah, clearly there's no run on hospitals...

In large part there isn't. You can be as smug as you want but the fact of the matter is hospitals across the country are taking hits and laying people off because elective procedures were shut down for too long. Now that you have some areas flaring up you have decreased medical staff to handle it.

So say what you want, what I said stands and is not even debatable.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

What are the odds they break NY's daily record? I am thinking they will do it by next week.

And still have almost 30k less deaths. Lets hope as you cheer for them to break the record the deaths don't follow.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

What are the odds they break NY's daily record? I am thinking they will do it by next week.

The worst day for NY was 11,661. Let's hope not.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

And still have almost 30k less deaths. Lets hope as you cheer for them to break the record the deaths don't follow.

Originally Posted by Donger

The worst day for NY was 11,661. Let's hope not.

No cheering just looking at the reality of their situation which isn't good. My uncle lives in the Villages and as long as the state doesn't lock down I suspect the case count will go much higher.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

No cheering just looking at the reality of their situation which isn't good. My uncle lives in the Villages and as long as the state doesn't lock down I suspect the case count will go much higher.

I guess we can hope that if it's accurate that younger people are getting infected at a higher rate than previously, the deaths will also be lower. But it's not like the infections stop with them.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is ‘a substantial undercount’ of actual tally, Yale study finds

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/offi...r&par=sharebar

The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years.

Researchers found that the excess number of deaths over normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those fatalities were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. State reporting discrepancies and a sharp increase in U.S. deaths amid a pandemic suggest the number of Covid-19 fatalities is undercounted, they said.

“Our analyses suggest that the official tally of deaths due to Covid-19 represent a substantial undercount of the true burden,” Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study, told CNBC. Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks. However, he doesn’t think that is the main driver.

The study was supported by the National Institute of Health.

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were about 122,300, or nearly 19% higher, than what would normally be expected, according to the researchers. Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus.

The number of excess deaths from any causes were 28% higher than the official tally of U.S. Covid-19 deaths during those months. The researchers noted the increase in excess deaths in many states trailed an increase in outpatient visits from people reporting an “influenza-like illness.”

Here's the actual study if anyone is interested. Should be pretty clear at this point that they're not overestimating covid deaths.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2767980

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Donger

I guess we can hope that if it's accurate that younger people are getting infected at a higher rate than previously, the deaths will also be lower. But it's not like the infections stop with them.

yup. I am really hoping that deaths don't significantly increase but I suspect they will increase some with all the infections unfortunately.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

yup. I am really hoping that deaths don't significantly increase but I suspect they will increase some with all the infections unfortunately.

I think the odds are they will increase some. Lets hope though it is not to the extent of what we saw a couple months ago.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

yup. I am really hoping that deaths don't significantly increase but I suspect they will increase some with all the infections unfortunately.

And just keep this in mind because it really surprised me the other day. And I do not pretend to say this is how it is everywhere but in Johnson County, Ks there has not been a single death outside of a care facility since April 16th. There have been no mask requirements. There have been some people wearing masks and a lot not wearing masks. Gyms have been open. Restaurants have been open. We had the Ozarks ordeal where a person in JoCo got the virus.

So that's a little perspective that things are not always what the media makes them out to be. AZ is in a bad way. CA I say is even worse but no one wants to talk about them for some reason or other. But other places are not like that and not even close. It's a tough balancing act for sure but we have to maintain perspective. Right now at least at this moment, we have seen a huge increase in cases for the better part of 3 weeks and we have seen deaths continue to drop. I hope that continues as I think we all do but I think we know deaths will probably rise some. But that doesn't mean it will be NY all over again either.

[TLO]

653 is the number to stay under today. I'm skeptical we'll come in under that mark.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

653 is the number to stay under today. I'm skeptical we'll come in under that mark.

It's gonna be close and while we want under as long as it isn't too far above I'd say we are still good.

[TLO]

I have a question about cases.

Nobody seems to put much stock into "well we're testing more, therefore we're finding more cases."

My question is this. We all remember the stories back in March and April of individuals that were sick and couldn't get a test because of the ridiculously stringent guidelines.

Isn't it feasible we're finding many more asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic cases that are leading to some of the increase?

I'm not saying this is the lone reason for the increase.. but doesn't it seem likely to be playing some role?

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Donger

The worst day for NY was 11,661. Let's hope not.

This is a perfect example of how dangerous it is when people just accept numbers at face value without thinking. Do both of you really believe that any reported number TODAY has any comparative value to any number reported then?! This just in: testing rates have gone way way up since then. In March we were not even getting the tip of the iceberg.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

This is a perfect example of how dangerous it is when people just accept numbers at face value without thinking. Do both of you really believe that any reported number TODAY has any comparative value to any number reported then?! This just in: testing rates have gone way way up since then. In March we were not even getting the tip of the iceberg.

Actually, in NY in late March to April (when they saw the highest number of new cases around April 16), they were testing in the 30,000 tests/day range. Florida doesn't seem to be as consistent, for whatever reason, but they are around 35,000/day now.