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02-24-2019, 04:29 PM | |
Seize life. Be an ermine.
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
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Sandbox Simulations is open for business! Sign up now!
Not available in stores! Buy now! Special price of only $1 for a limited time only. We're up and running!
Go to www.sandboxsimulations.com to sign up. (You can learn more about the game as well.) For the time being, we set the price to $1, and we can't limit it to just the game testers, so if you're interested, you'll also get the $1 price. Just sign up. This is a fresh reset, so everyone will have new teams and we'll do a new draft. Also, please give us any feedback about what you like or don't like, and how we can improve navigation. We've updated all of the systems, so there's a chance that errors are lurking somewhere, but we think we're good to go now. Let us know if something bad happens to you. |
Posts: 143,131
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02-16-2020, 05:07 PM | #2881 | |
www.nfl-forecast.com
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Quote:
Drew Brees fumbled 5 times during 2018. Priest Holmes fumbled once during the regular season in 2003, yet fumbled in the playoff game. Shit happens. |
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Posts: 45,717
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02-16-2020, 05:09 PM | #2882 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Posts: 288,100
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02-16-2020, 05:30 PM | #2883 |
lifelong Chiefs survivor
Join Date: Mar 2003
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That was quite the ending in my game.
The game was tied with 20 seconds remaining. I tried a 60 yard FG and missed. He gets the ball back with 15 seconds left, completes a pass and makes a 54 yard FG. Uggh. |
Posts: 2,671
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02-16-2020, 05:33 PM | #2884 |
www.nfl-forecast.com
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Events (example fumble and recovery of the fumble) are treated independently. As you start making events more and more conditional, you shrink the sample size which makes simulations even more unrealistic.
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Posts: 45,717
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02-16-2020, 05:38 PM | #2885 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Posts: 288,100
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02-16-2020, 05:50 PM | #2886 |
The Seated Villain
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Seattle
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Statistically, recovering fumbles is random. Brees’ rate of fumbling should be close to reality, but there’s no reason to think that his fumbles lost should be the same.
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Posts: 10,711
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02-16-2020, 05:52 PM | #2887 | |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Quote:
I can accept that Brees might lose a fumble in a playoff game. Now he loses two? OK, statistically, sure, I guess this was bound to happen. Wait, now another elite player who never fumbles loses one? What? And now my HOF QB also chokes at the end? What? A bridge too far, sorry. Sim needs work. |
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Posts: 288,100
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02-16-2020, 05:58 PM | #2888 | |
Dazed and Confused
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Somewhere Out There
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Quote:
At least you have a playoff, I've been waiting for 2 f'ing years. |
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Posts: 18,001
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02-16-2020, 08:05 PM | #2889 |
Mod Team
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Valley of the hot as ****
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Clay ****ing sucks.
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Posts: 46,134
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02-16-2020, 08:10 PM | #2890 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Posts: 288,100
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02-16-2020, 08:23 PM | #2891 |
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Indiana
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Hey Mahomes won MVP and had 2 fumbles in the Super Bowl. Sometimes it happens. And yes Brees still sucks. Haha
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Posts: 1,806
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02-16-2020, 08:24 PM | #2892 |
Seize life. Be an ermine.
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
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Posts: 143,131
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02-16-2020, 08:25 PM | #2893 | |
Seize life. Be an ermine.
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: My house
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Quote:
You're not giving my defense enough credit. There's a reason that we were a playoff team that is now in the divisional round. We make plays when it matters. |
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Posts: 143,131
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02-16-2020, 08:29 PM | #2894 |
I'll be back.
Join Date: Nov 2002
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Posts: 288,100
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02-16-2020, 08:52 PM | #2895 |
lifelong Chiefs survivor
Join Date: Mar 2003
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Posts: 2,671
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