****Our Wide Receivers Suck- Official Thread****

[Sofa King]

They can’t get open, they drop passes in their hands, their jet sweeps are slow and terrible. These guys are not good.

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I heard that and I think that's just silly.

His mistakes are because he's trying to hard. Saying that's some sort of dedication issue is just stupid.

It's a meathead like Gronk being taught by a jackass like Belichick thinking he has all the answers because he heard the same canned bullshit coachspeak every week.

Not to disagree, but I disagree. Sometime when a player is letting himself get gang-tackled in an effort to get one more yard, sure, I'd agree. That's not the case with Toney, he's not trying hard enough. He's not going back to fundamental football that says catch the ball first, then get do something amazing with your legs.

And if dropping passes is because he's trying too hard, then when he catches a pass, does that mean he was trying less? Ya can't have it both ways. And like so many deflections happening these days, his problems are evidenced by his lack of self accountability.

He should be benched, but I doubt coach Reid will do that. Sadly that means he's strapping PMII with a player who PMII can't trust. If you disagree. before you say something, read PMII's lips after Toney's huge gaff on the last game. If you think PMII is going to actually trust him moving forward, outside of PC soundbites, you're nuts.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

Not to disagree, but I disagree. Sometime when a player is letting himself get gang-tackled in an effort to get one more yard, sure, I'd agree. That's not the case with Toney, he's not trying hard enough. He's not going back to fundamental football that says catch the ball first, then get do something amazing with your legs.

And if dropping passes is because he's trying too hard, then when he catches a pass, does that mean he was trying less? Ya can't have it both ways. And like so many deflections happening these days, his problems are evidenced by his lack of self accountability.

He should be benched, but I doubt coach Reid will do that. Sadly that means he's strapping PMII with a player who PMII can't trust. If you disagree. before you say something, read PMII's lips after Toney's huge gaff on the last game. If you think PMII is going to actually trust him moving forward, outside of PC soundbites, you're nuts.

If he's dropping passes because he doesn't love football, did he love it when he catches one? You can't have it both ways....

Oh wait, both statements are equally asinine.

How is dropping a pass because you're trying to cut upfield for additional yardage before you secure the ball any different than a fumble when being gang-tackled because you're trying to gain additional yardage?

It's 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other. He's trying to do too much and it's keeping him from executing the basic stuff.

[AdolfOliverBush]

Originally Posted by GloryDayz

If you disagree. before you say something, read PMII's lips after Toney's huge gaff on the last game.

""Are you ****ing shitting me? Goddamn it!"

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If he's dropping passes because he doesn't love football, did he love it when he catches one? You can't have it both ways....

Oh wait, both statements are equally asinine.

How is dropping a pass because you're trying to cut upfield for additional yardage before you secure the ball any different than a fumble when being gang-tackled because you're trying to gain additional yardage?

It's 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other. He's trying to do too much and it's keeping him from executing the basic stuff.

Not catching a ball is what he's paid to do first. I'm not going to argue with you because you've decided to cut the fool a break using a all too cliche excuse that's used by people who want to make excuses for not playing sound football.

He's a liability to our team and the sooner we distance ourselves from him the better off we'll be.

[GloryDayz]

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush

""Are you ****ing shitting me? Goddamn it!"

Yeah, it wasn't, "I sure wish he'd try less..." But I'm sure many will claim that THIS TIME he's going to get back to playing good fundamental football and securing the pass before making a football move.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I’m talking more about dealing with the hand we’re already dealt. If it was a matter of asking mahomes to be a little smarter or work a little harder to get less athletic guys the ball… that’s one thing. Or to overcome a mistake on 2nd down with a big 3rd down play, sure. But we are talking about WRs who punish even semi aggressive play by constantly making costly errors that are way more difficult to overcome.

Most of my reaction is to the idea that we should still try to make Toney work. Or man… I’m even reluctant to be flinging Ross out there this late in the season. At this point we’ve gotta put all our focus on cutting out the mistakes. I like James to fit into that plan because I don’t think he can be worse. It’s not my preferred long term approach. I think other teams have had the flexibility to open up beyond long plodding drives in ways we can’t, But I think it’s plenty workable the rest of this season.

I think a little perspective is fair here.

We pass the ball, what, 35 times/gm? Let's be conservative and say 20 of those are to WRs.

And let's also be conservative and say the Chiefs WR's have dropped 3/gm (they haven't; it's been closer to 2, but for the sake of easy math, lets say 3).

I mean they're NOT dropping 85% of the balls he throws to them. And yeah, you'd like to see that at the league average; nearer 92% from what I can figure. But shit guys, we're talking a 7% difference. Maybe 1 drop/gm over average.

To put this ALL on the WRs is just weird. To say that 1 extra drop/gm vs. league average means that Mahomes should just presume they'll drop EVERY one of them when in fact they do manage to catch 85% of the balls thrown their way just ignores the math.

That's why I keep saying that Mahomes needs to get out of his head and keep firing. The odds OVERWHELMINGLY suggest his guys will catch the ball. That's just the math. Sometimes they won't - it happens. But if he takes a sack or throws balls into triple coverage on 5 plays in a given game, that's 5 negative plays when the reality of the math says that if throws that ball 5 times to the open guys 'he doesn't trust' - 4 of those balls WILL be caught and he'll just have to stomach the 5th.

The math is what it is here. These guys aren't dropping everything. They're dropping more than we (or he, or they) want them to but that STILL doesn't mean he's better served over any meaningful timeline to stop playing the position the right way.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I think a little perspective is fair here.

We pass the ball, what, 35 times/gm? Let's be conservative and say 20 of those are to WRs.

And let's also be conservative and say the Chiefs WR's have dropped 3/gm (they haven't; it's been closer to 2, but for the sake of easy math, lets say 3).

I mean they're NOT dropping 85% of the balls he throws to them. And yeah, you'd like to see that at the league average; nearer 92% from what I can figure. But shit guys, we're talking a 7% difference. Maybe 1 drop/gm over average.

To put this ALL on the WRs is just weird. To say that 1 extra drop/gm vs. league average means that Mahomes should just presume they'll drop EVERY one of them when in fact they do manage to catch 85% of the balls thrown their way just ignores the math.

That's why I keep saying that Mahomes needs to get out of his head and keep firing. The odds OVERWHELMINGLY suggest his guys will catch the ball. That's just the math. Sometimes they won't - it happens. But if he takes a sack or throws balls into triple coverage on 5 plays in a given game, that's 5 negative plays when the reality of the math says that if throws that ball 5 times to the open guys 'he doesn't trust' - 4 of those balls WILL be caught and he'll just have to stomach the 5th.

The math is what it is here. These guys aren't dropping everything. They're dropping more than we (or he, or they) want them to but that STILL doesn't mean he's better served over any meaningful timeline to stop playing the position the right way.

the correlation is way easier than that. Our WRs get way less opportunities and yet make way more mistakes. And it isn’t a once or twice thing. Almost every single game you can point to a few back breaking mistakes that are flat out boneheaded. Even in a game where we literally built an entire gameplan around hiding our WRs we found a way to make multiple costly mistakes.

And that’s not even getting into these guys running routes like idiots.

That’s not getting into how we have no margin of error because these guys aren’t bailing mahomes out even a tiny bit on contested catches or throws a little off the mark

It isn’t about getting these guys in rhythm or getting better with more repetition. If you double the opportunity their mistakes will increase in lockstep. Whenever we target our WRs bad things happen. Whenever we put more targets on gray and our RBs good things happen. And it should be telling when Andy is leaning heavily on that script

[Megatron96]

Chiefs WRs (excepting Rice 81%/Toney 71%), are catching the ball at about a 56% rate. Skyy has been around 55%, JWat around 51%, MVS 52%, James 50% . . . Also, 8 of Pat's INTs have come while targeting the WRs, per PFF, PFN, NFL Research, CBSSports, ESPN.

So, it wouldn't be 4 our 5; it'd be more like 3 out of 5.

WRs stats, per PFR
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...s/kan/2023.htm

[AdolfOliverBush]

[cabletech94]

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush

Underrated post, right here.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Sassy Squatch

What the **** even happened to FAU? He's getting less snaps than Matt ****ing Dickerson.

Umm he's a rookie playing behind 3 really good edge rushers dude. Who's snaps are you cutting back to get him more? Karlaftis? Danna? Omenihu? Hell, even Jones gets his fair share of snaps at edge.

This is a great problem to have.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by cabletech94

Underrated post, right here.

Smartest thing that guy's ever said.

[AdolfOliverBush]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Smartest thing that guy's ever said.

That's not what your mom says, Trebek!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Umm he's a rookie playing behind 3 really good edge rushers dude. Who's snaps are you cutting back to get him more? Karlaftis? Danna? Omenihu? Hell, even Jones gets his fair share of snaps at edge.

This is a great problem to have.

It's good to have depth, but it also loses a year of cheap labor with a draft pick sitting. If it's at QB, we obviously were and should be ok there. But hindsight.....there were other directions they could have went there and got quicker results.

Long term though, taking the DE is fine with me. But he needs to hit the ground running next year. There's not really time for "development".

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Chiefs WRs (excepting Rice 81%/Toney 71%), are catching the ball at about a 56% rate. Skyy has been around 55%, JWat around 51%, MVS 52%, James 50% . . . Also, 8 of Pat's INTs have come while targeting the WRs, per PFF, PFN, NFL Research, CBSSports, ESPN.

So, it wouldn't be 4 our 5; it'd be more like 3 out of 5.

WRs stats, per PFR
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...s/kan/2023.htm

Catch rate is just receptions divided by targets. It doesn't take into account passes defensed, off the mark or maybe just flat dirted.

From what I can see, the receivers have had 177 'catchable balls' thrown to them this year (i.e. not deflected, defensed or otherwise off the mark) and have dropped 15. Obviously drop stats are unreliable as hell; one mans drop is another man's pass breakup, so there's going to be some signal noise in there, but even presuming that number to be ridiculously low, let's just set it to 27 for the sake of easy math (nearly doubling it) you'd still have 150 of 177 balls caught -- About 85% of them.

Take Rice out of it - 106 catchable balls thrown, 12 drops. And again, you can add 10 to that that number (with no real cause other than being simply conservative in the analysis) and you have 84 catches on 106 catchable passes. That's still 80%.

Again, throw it on time, on target and to the open receiver and the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor that the guy's gonna catch it. Catching 4 of 5 catchable balls is statistically AWFUL. Over large numbers it would be among the worst receiving seasons of all time. And yet it's STILL a better idea than taking a sack or forcing a ball into triple coverage because you won't go through your progressions due to 'trust issues'.

Whoever's running the route, you have to run the offense like he's going to catch it. Because the odds suggest that if the ball gets to him, he will. All emotional outbursts to the contrary.