This doesn’t sound great

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They're gonna need a lot more turnovers.

3rd down efficiency is insanely volatile. Year over year, it means very little. There's an excellent chance we regress quite a bit on 3rd downs. And that was how we got teams off the field last season.

Not really through sacks and definitely not through turnovers. But by coming up with big stops on 3rd downs to force punts.

We're gonna have fewer of those without Sneed and due to simple regression to the mean, IMO.

The team could really stand to damn near double their turnover output. League leaders had 31 last season, league average was about 24.

The Chiefs had 17 and were as close to last (11) as they were even league average. They were quietly really bad at forcing turnovers last season. 5th worst in the league.

So they need to add about 10 turnovers this season (and ideally subtract about 5 on the offensive side). And if they do BOTH those things, they'll get to about +4 in giveaway takeaway. There just aren't many teams that have won championships with a -11 turnover margin.

They'll need to fix that. I figure they probably will.

They won the Ravens game because they were +3 in turnover margin. They won the Super Bowl because they managed to stay even. And they put themselves in real trouble against Buffalo because they went -1.

That has to be (and, IMO, has been) a real area of emphasis for them this season. Turn the ball over on defense, be a little safer with it on offense. You're not gonna live on 3rd down stops alone again.

Yup but I think that the offense scoring so much is gonna put them in far more favorable positions. It wasn’t often that we had teams in a hole having to pass last year.

I think this offense can do what they did in prior years and get up on teams fast so the pas rushers can pin their ears back again.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Yup but I think that the offense scoring so much is gonna put them in far more favorable positions. It wasn’t often that we had teams in a hole having to pass last year.

I think this offense can do what they did in prior years and get up on teams fast so the pas rushers can pin their ears back again.

Moreover, IF the offense is back, you'll see more aggressive 4th down decisions against us. So some of the 3rd down stops we do get are gonna be mere preludes to the money down to begin with.

Gonna need more splash plays on defense.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They're gonna need a lot more turnovers.

3rd down efficiency is insanely volatile. Year over year, it means very little. There's an excellent chance we regress quite a bit on 3rd downs. And that was how we got teams off the field last season.

Not really through sacks and definitely not through turnovers. But by coming up with big stops on 3rd downs to force punts.

We're gonna have fewer of those without Sneed and due to simple regression to the mean, IMO.

The team could really stand to damn near double their turnover output. League leaders had 31 last season, league average was about 24.

The Chiefs had 17 and were as close to last (11) as they were even league average. They were quietly really bad at forcing turnovers last season. 5th worst in the league.

So they need to add about 10 turnovers this season (and ideally subtract about 5 on the offensive side). And if they do BOTH those things, they'll get to about +4 in giveaway takeaway. There just aren't many teams that have won championships with a -11 turnover margin.

They'll need to fix that. I figure they probably will.

They won the Ravens game because they were +3 in turnover margin. They won the Super Bowl because they managed to stay even. And they put themselves in real trouble against Buffalo because they went -1.

That has to be (and, IMO, has been) a real area of emphasis for them this season. Turn the ball over on defense, be a little safer with it on offense. You're not gonna live on 3rd down stops alone again.

IMO, the issue (if you wanna call it an issue) with the turnovers is they play alot of man on the back end. You just don't get many turnovers doing that.

They've gotta blitz alot to get sacks, really need the front to show up and let them play some more coverage.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

IMO, the issue (if you wanna call it an issue) with the turnovers is they play alot of man on the back end. You just don't get many turnovers doing that.

They've gotta blitz alot to get sacks, really need the front to show up and let them play some more coverage.

It's not just man - it's press man.

Off Man can get you picks BUT only if you're generating substantial pressure with your front 4 and thus forcing those quick passes that a CB can drive on.

Once the DB has to turn, the interception is mostly out the window unless it's a safety and our safeties aren't ball-hawks.

In press man, even the quick game interceptions are pretty rare.

I don't disagree (and made that point often last season) that our coverages impact our pick totals. That said, we just won't be able to run that as often as we did without Sneed. We're gonna need to do more matchup zone and off-man coverage this year.

I think the opportunities will increase by a fair bit - we just have to haul them in.