Duncan Idaho's Compendium of Comprehensive Offseason Plans
Offseason Plan: Version 5.0
Now with more Chris Jones, for sure, and an understanding of his contract. And Drue Tranquill on contract.
Cut
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DE Charles Omenihu (last time, I said this stunk. Hearing him saying today that he thinks he should be paid like the guys in the tier right behind Nick Bosa makes it a pretty no-brainer. He clearly isn’t in a spot to do a small extension. So cut him loose.)
Extend
S Justin Reid (4/$49M – I stick to the restructure of Reid in this run. He’s just so solid and good and reliable, and the secondary still needs a veteran leader.)
Tag and Trade
CB L’Jarius Sneed (this time, I send him to the Vikings for #42 because that’s fun)
Trade
WR Kadarius Toney (2025 conditional 6th)
Let Walk
Mike Edwards
Derrick Nnadi
Willie Gay
Jerick McKinnon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Blake Bell
Richie James
Deon Bush
Tommy Townsend (we don’t need him any more, we have the Dolphin)
Jody Fortson
Prince Tega-Wanogho
Re-Sign
Tershawn Wharton (3 years, $9.5M – The DT room is thin even with Jones back, and watching the SB we really saw what I thought was Wharton’s best game. I like having a DT with that burst and speed, and he has clearly gotten much stronger, and he is athletic enough to run some DE snaps in a pinch)
James Winchester (minimal deal)
Malik Herring (ERFA tender)
Jack Cochrane (ERFA tender)
Nazeeh Johnson (ERFA tender)
Mike Caliendo (ERFA tender)
FA Moves
QB Trevor Siemian (1/$1.7M – veteran QB)
DE Yetur Gross-Matos (1/$1.6M – just seems like a good bet for KC as a Spags-type DE who is a Veach reclamation attempt special to boot)
OT Yosh Nijman (2/$12.3M – I just am not comfortable going into the draft with only Wanya Morris and a rookie at LT. Nijman provides a little veteran depth with some upside).
With these deals done, I’m still sitting on about $22M of cap space without restructuring Mahomes at all. I’ve added draft capital and addressed LT insurance/depth with a vet I think can be at least AVERAGE at LT.
I still dive back in at this point for WR Darnell Mooney at 1/$8M , with incentives up to $12M. That still leaves me about $15M in cap space, which I could use to sign draft picks and hunt for June 1 cuts/late FA bargains. I’m tempted to go get Teair Tartt in this cycle but hold off.
Getting into the season without touching Mahomes deal at ALL is going to really help with flexibility in 2025, when it’s going to be needed due to the Jones situation being added to the books.
Draft Needs based on plan so far:
As before, we’re still looking at a pretty set roster that doesn’t have any glaring needs but needs to invest at DT, WR, and LT.
Simulator used: NFL Mock Draft Database (best aggregated big board at this point)
1.32: Kingsley Suamataia, LT, BYU. Suamataia needs seasoning, but his upside is high and he checks the size, arm length, and athleticism boxes to be a good long-term LT for the Chiefs.
2.42: Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan. This might be high OK, this might be a bit of a reach. But Wilson is someone I haven’t mocked to KC before and I do think his speed, explosiveness, and ability to make cuts at top speed make him a good fit for KC’s offense. With Mooney only signed for one year, Wilson would be on hand with experience under his belt for 2025 and beyond for that role.
Also considered: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina. I probably would go here like I did in my last mock, but I wanted to switch it up.
2.64 Sedrick Van Pran, IOL, Georgia. Here’s a new one. I considered dipping for another WR here (hothead Jermain Burton!) but instead stick on the OL. The Jones decision is going to come with consequences on other players, and I may need to account for them. Van Pran can be a stud C or a good G. If Humphrey walks, you’re covered. If Smith walks, you’re covered. If they cut Thuney to keep Smith and Humphrey, you’re covered. If they need to move Humphrey off C because of Snaps, you’re covered.
3.95 McKinnley Jackson, DT, Texas A&M Big bulky dude to help replace Nnadi.
4.131 Brenden Rice, WR, USC. His 40 at the combine was a disappointment, but I still like his size and ability to work the scramble drill. Great bloodlines, great work ethic, and I think he’s faster than his 40.
5.158 Deantre Prince, CB, Ole Miss. I missed on the round 2 and round 3 CB values/fits. His size/speed/athletic profile tracks with the Day 3 gems the Chiefs have been finding. Let’s keep it rolling.
5.172 Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville. I am not first to the Guerendo train, but I’m on it. Size/speed combo is great. I doubt he actually makes it here, though.
7.250 Gabe Hall, DT, Baylor. I like Hall’s size and athletic ability. Seemed worthwhile for a Day 3 stab.
Wrapping it up
This will be my last offseason exercise. I’m pretty stoked about where KC lands in this, honestly.
Two-deep (Re-signed,FA adds, rookies)
(2) QB: Mahomes/Siemian
(3) RB: Pacheco/Guerendo/Prince
(6) WR: Rice, Mooney, Wilson/ Watson, Rice, Moore
(3) TE: Kelce/Gray/min contract vet
(6) DE: Karlaftis, Anudike-Uzomah, Gross-Matos, Harring, Thompsonsmall contract vet
(5) DT: Jones,Wharton,Farrell, Jackson ,Hall
(5) LB: Bolton, Tranquill, Chenal, Cochrane, Jones
(6) CB: McDuffie, Williams, Watson, Johnson, Jones, Prince
(4) S: Reid, Cook, Conner, inexpensive vet, probably Deon Bush
(1) LS: Winchester
(1) K: Butker
(1) P: The Dolphin
That leaves 1 spot floating if my count is right, probably goes to depth at OL or maybe another DB who is a special teams asset.
The defense still is built around Chris Jones and I know that DE room is going to make some people nervous. I’d be looking for some training camp cuts/late FA additions to beef that spot up some more. The LB corps is still a strong one (and still one of the better ones in the NFL, if not quite as versatile in base with Willie Gay presumably making a lot of money elsewhere), and the secondary is still a strength (probably a little stronger at S in 24 than it was in 23, with Reid, Conner, and Cook, but obviously turning things over at CB).
I’d feel good about the chances for a 3-peat with this one, and I think KC would be the preseason favorite in this run. Defense is still strong, offense got a bunch of help.
Looking ahead to 25, I haven’t addressed Bolton-Humphrey-Smith. In light of the Jones signing and structure, I don’t think they can keep 2 any more. Might just be one… and maybe neither of the OL.
Offseason Plan: Version 4.0
Spoiler!
We’ve got a little more information. We have another Super Bowl trophy in Kansas City. So let’s run the whole exercise again with the key internal decision being: Let’s keep Chris Jones and work from there. My goal with this is to take a balanced approach and try to build a complete team, distributing more of my resources to offense than 2023, but still giving the defense some assistance.
Cut
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DE Charles Omenihu (last time, I said this stunk. Hearing him saying today that he thinks he should be paid like the guys in the tier right behind Nick Bosa makes it a pretty no-brainer. He clearly isn’t in a spot to do a small extension. So cut him loose.)
Extend
S Justin Reid (4/$49M – I stick to the restructure of Reid in this run. He’s just so solid and good and reliable, and the secondary still needs a veteran leader.)
Tag and Trade
CB L’Jarius Sneed (this time, I send him to the Eagles for #50 because it’s clean and easy and that Instagram post has that as the hot rumor right now)
Let Walk
Mike Edwards
Derrick Nnadi
Willie Gay
Jerick McKinnon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Blake Bell
Richie James
Deon Bush
Tommy Townsend (we don’t need him any more, we have the Dolphin)
Jody Fortson
Prince Tega-Wanogho
Re-Sign
Drue Tranquill (2 years, $9.5M)
Nick Allegretti (2 years, $5.5M)
Tershawn Wharton (3 years, $9.5M – The DT room is thin even with Jones back, and watching the SB we really saw what I thought was Wharton’s best game. I like having a DT with that burst and speed, and he has clearly gotten much stronger, and he is athletic enough to run some DE snaps in a pinch)
James Winchester (minimal deal)
Malik Herring (ERFA tender)
Jack Cochrane (ERFA tender)
Nazeeh Johnson (ERFA tender)
Mike Caliendo (ERFA tender)
FA Moves
QB Trevor Siemian (1/$1.7M – veteran QB)
WR Darnell Mooney (4/$36.4M – I bank on getting more out of Mooney than in Chicago… good QB play and a better system. He fits nicely for KC as a player who can do the deep speed items as well as provide other WR things)
DE Yetur Gross-Matos (1/$1.6M – just seems like a good bet for KC as a Spags-type DE who is a Veach reclamation attempt special to boot)
OT Yosh Nijman (2/$12.3M – I just am not comfortable going into the draft with only Wanya Morris and a rookie at LT. Nijman provides a little veteran depth with some upside).
To help facilitate all of this, I am restructuring $20M of Mahomes’ roster bonus. I end up with about $16M in cap space at the end of all these moves. That's more than enough to sign the draft class, operate throughout the season, and pounce on some June 1 cuts to fill gaps if there is a good fit.
Draft As expected, the Chiefs are drafting 32nd.
Needs based on plan so far:
The Chiefs have no GLARING needs other than some long-term solutions at OT and WR. Which happen to be the strength of this draft. Gee, how did that happen? I will also be looking for a young DT, a speedy LB, and would like to double-up at WR.
Simulator used: SportsKeeda (uses Tony Pauline’s big board/associated with him)
1.32: T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas. Sweat is massive, and massive DTs typically don’t really draw love from a Spagnuolo defense. But in addition to how big he is, Sweat also has some explosiveness and pass rush juice. You can squint and see Vita Vea. This one is all about making life easier for Chris Jones so he can earn that payday and focus on pass rushing.
Also considered: Kingsley Suamataia went one pick before me to the 49ers, or would have been my selection here. McKinnley Jackson, DT, aTm; Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Not ****ing considered at all: Ladd McConkey, GWH, Georgia.
2.50: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina. Man. I really don’t love the way this slot worked out for me on this run, but Legette’s speed and big, reliable hands make him intriguing. He DOES move better laterally than you’d expect a 6-1.5/225 pound WR to move. There’s some risk here, but I’m banking on the upside and figuring if nothing else he can run some deep shots for me.
Also considered: Cedric Gray, LB, North Carolina; Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas. Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington; Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan; Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington.
2.64 Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale. He’s going to need some time to work on technique and develop into an NFL T, but Amegadjie has the size, length and athleticism to be really effective. He and Wanya Morris can battle things out and push Nijman for the LT spot.
Also considered: Will Shipley, RB, Clemson; Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan; Josh Newton, CB, TCU. T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State; Javon Foster, OT, Missouri.
3.95 Caelen Carson, CB, Wake Forest I’m into BPA mode here, and Carson fit the bill. He’s athletic and versatile and helps re-build the DB room post-Sneed.
Also considered: Maason Smith, DT, LSU; Ty’Ron Hopper, LB, Missouri.
4.133 Theo Johnson, TE, Penn State. Johnson is a nice size-speed TE. I like him better than my other options here.
Also considered: Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona; Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State.
5.158 Zion Tupuola-Fetui, DE, Washington. ZTF still intrigues me because of the tools and I want to add a LITTLE to the DE rotation.
Also considered: Tykee Smith, S, Georgia. Aineas Smith, WR, Texas A&M. Lots of DBs and WRs.
5.172 Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville. I am not first to the Guerendo train, but I’m on it. Size/speed combo is great.
Also considered: Lots of athletes.
7.250 Deantre Prince, CB, Mississippi. Just randomly picking a DB with the size/profile the Chiefs like.
Also considered: Lots of athletes.
Wrapping it up
This was my first time running a mock on this site, which was kind of nice because I couldn’t anticipate movement as well. I doubt Carson would fall that far but would be excited to recoup that level of CB prospect this late. T.J. Tampa seems like a better bet to be there, and it seems even more likely the Chiefs uncover a guy we haven't heard of as a good fit, too.
Two-deep (Re-signed,FA adds, rookies)
(2) QB: Mahomes/Siemian
(3) RB: Pacheco/Guerendo/Prince
(6) WR: Rice, Mooney, Legette/ Watson, Toney, Moore (Would love to trade Toney but just can’t find a fit. Could also cut one of the wonder twins and slot a cheap vet here)
(3) TE: Kelce/Gray/Johnson
(6) DE: Karlaftis, Anudike-Uzomah, Gross-Matos, Harring, ZTFThompson
(5) DT: Jones,Sweat,Farrell, Wharton,run-plugging FA vet
(5) LB: Bolton, Tranquill, Chenal, Cochrane, Jones
(6) CB: McDuffie, Williams, Watson, Carson, Johnson, Jones Prince
(4) S: Reid, Cook, Conner, inexpensive vet, probably Deon Bush
(1) LS: Winchester
(1) K: Butker
(1) P: The Dolphin
That leaves 1 spot floating if my count is right, probably goes to depth at OL or maybe another DL who can float both spots.
The defense still is built around Chris Jones and I know that DE room is going to make some people nervous. I’d be looking for some training camp cuts/late FA additions to beef that spot up some more. The LB corps is still a strong one (and still one of the better ones in the NFL, if not quite as versatile in base with Willie Gay presumably making a lot of money elsewhere), and the secondary is still a strength (probably a little stronger at S in 24 than it was in 23, with Reid, Conner, and Cook, but obviously turning things over at CB).
The biggest change, I think, is how Sweat can adjust the calculus up front for offensive lines. With him lined up next to Jones, that’s two incredibly strong, quick, explosive players to worry. Sweat isn’t a great natural pass rusher, but he has juice and is a load that can’t be handled well 1x1. The DEs would have much easier assignments in this set-up, facing exclusively single blocks and likely having pass-blocking backs assigned to troubleshoot rather than ever chip.
On offense, I’ve spread my approach out and am counting on a numbers game. There isn’t a top-notch WR added to this offense that is going to become a clear Round 1 fantasy football pick, at least not for the 24 season, but with Mooney and Legette I’ve added two guys who can get deep and complement Rice and Kelce. I added another big, physical, fast running back to my group (not sure he’s much as a receiver, but Pacheco’s role there could be expanded and I still have hope for Prince in that regard, as he seemed like a good receiving WEAPON who needed to work on his pass blocking). Johnson seems like a nice upgrade from Blake Bell, with the size and blocking ability to slide into that TE3 role nicely, but more upside and threat as a receiver (watching his tape, I think he can do some of the vertical concepts they used to run with Fortson).
On the offensive line, I’m giving Andy Heck 4 options to run through LT and figure out how to make it work. Maybe it’s Jawaan Taylor flipping sides. Maybe it’s Nijman living up to his potential and being a solid starting LT. Maybe it’s the rookie wowing folks, or the second year player taking steps. I don’t know. But there’s enough volume there for me to be confident KC can get to a T setup that is better than 2023’s.
I’d feel good about the chances for a 3-peat with this one. KC wouldn’t be clear, far-and-away favorites (the Texans are probably putting a super team around Stroud), but the Chiefs would still have a strong defense that doesn’t have glaring weak spots to exploit, the offense would have more weapons and some different options for making teams pay when they play man and bring up the safeties, and Mahomes would be reasonably well-protected.
Looking ahead to 25, I haven’t addressed Bolton-Humphrey-Smith. I’m still thinking KC only moves to keep 2 of those guys, at most.
Offseason Plan: Version 3.0
Spoiler!
Overriding premise of this one is going to be: What if the Chiefs DO NOT take an OT or WR in the first round?
Cut
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DE Charles Omenihu (this stinks, but it makes sense)
Extend
S Justin Reid (4/$48 – I stick to the restructure of Reid in this run. He’s just so solid and good and reliable.)
Tag and Trade
CB L’Jarius Sneed (super hard, but for the purposes of this exercise we are pretending I traded Sneed to the Los Angeles Rams for picks 1.19 and 3.83, sending them 5.172 and a 2025 3rd)
Let Walk
Chris Jones (this one still hurts, but I don’t see another path)
Mike Edwards
Derrick Nnadi
Willie Gay
Jerick McKinnon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Blake Bell
Richie James
Deon Bush
Tommy Townsend (cap is too tight to spend money on a P)
Jody Fortson
Prince Tega-Wanogho
Re-Sign
Drue Tranquill (2 years, $9.5M)
Nick Allegretti (2 years, $5.5M)
Donovan Smith (3 years, $38M)
Tershawn Wharton (2 years, $8M – adding some insurance along DL)
Blaine Gabbert (minimal deal)
James Winchester (minimal deal)
Malik Herring (ERFA tender)
Jack Cochrane (ERFA tender)
Nazeeh Johnson (ERFA tender)
Mike Caliendo (ERFA tender)
FA Moves
WR Curtis Samuel (4/$45)
DT Teair Tart (3/$23M)
I stick with these because I just think they fit the Chiefs’ needs fairly well.
Some minimal contract depth moves/ST moves (DT, DE, etc.)
With these moves down, I’d be left with about $14.5M in cap space, with some of that going into depth signings. That’s probably enough to get the rookies signed AND have room to operate, so I would NOT have to touch Mahomes’ deal in this version.
Draft Assumption: I will again run the draft on the current slotting, which has the Chiefs at 28, even though I think they end up lower.
Needs based on plan so far:
The needs haven’t changed with this, really. Still need to invest in pass rush, and a WR, and look at a developmental, long-term OT if possible. And snag some BPAs. The secondary is still strong, but with Sneed out of the building, I look at that position in the early rounds if it makes sense.
Also: proceeding as if Chiefs win SB.
Simulator used: NFL Mock Draft Database
1.19: Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri. OK, I know. I told OCity 32 was too high for him a few days ago, but I no longer believe that. He continued to dominate the Senior Bowl. A freaky big/long guy who can play inside and out just seems too perfect to pass up in this case.
Also considered: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama. WR Brian Thomas, LSU. WR Troy Franklin, Oregon.
1.32: Trade to Arziona for 2.35, 3.71, 5.160, 7.221
2.35: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas. I didn’t love the WRs left to me at this spot, but I do like Sanders’ impact as a receiving weapon at the TE spot. He would be a nice upgrade in the TE2 spot from Noah Gray and make the Chiefs 3 TE sets great again.
Also considered: WR Xavier Worthy, DT Leonard Taylor, CB T.J. Tampa
TRADE: 3.95, 3.71 to Philadelphia for 2.53
2.53: Caelen Carson, CB, Wake Forest. I move up here to get the last CB in this tier. Carson fits KC’s profile and improves the depth that took a hit losing Sneed.
2.64 Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama. Burton is growing on me as a fit for KC. I like his experience in the slot and out, and his well-rounded game.
Also considered: Maason Smith, DT, LSU; Will Shipley, RB, Clemson.
Trade: 3.83, 5.160 to Seattle for 3.76 With the board falling a way I really like here, I move up to take… 3.76 Maason Smith, DT, LSU. Seeing Smith slip just a little more makes it too much to pass up. Yes, it’s a double-dip on the DL and technically at DT, but Smith is just such a great raw product to shape I can’t pass it up.
Also considered: Will Shipley, RB, Clemson; Johnny Wilson, WR/TE, Florida State; Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan;.
4.131 Delmar Glaze, IOL, Maryland. Glaze is a big, physical interior blocker with good athleticism who is good in pass pro. Really nice pull here, IMO.
Also considered: Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona, Brenden Rice, WR,
5.157 Javon Foster, OT, Missouri. OK, not a homer pick. Foster has good size and length. He’s a solid athlete and a hard worker. Just a developmental shot here.
Also considered: Tykee Smtih, S, Georgia. Ainas Smith, WR, Texas A&M. Lots of DBs and WRs.
5.171 Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshite. Senior Bowl definitely influencing me, but Laube is a dynamic pass-catching running back. Slide him into the McKinnon role and let’s go.
Spoiler!
7.221 A punter. I don’t care. But a punter.
Also considered: Lots of athletes.
Wrapping it up
So, to sum it up: Young, high-upside scheme fits at DL? Check. Improved receiving weapons? Check. Depth at key spots? Check.
B]Two-deep [/B](Re-signed,FA adds, rookies)
(2) QB: Mahomes/Gabbert
(3) RB: Pacheco/Laube/Prince
(6) WR: Rice, Samuel, Burton/ Watson, Toney, Moore (or cut one of the wonder twins and slot a cheap vet here)
(3) TE: Kelce/Sanders/Gray
(5) DE: Karlaftis, Anudike-Uzomah, Robinson, Harring, Thompson]
(5) DT: Tart,Smith or Robinson,Farrell, Wharton,run-plugging FA vet
(5) LB: Bolton, Tranquill, Chenal, Cochrane, Jones
(6) CB: McDuffie, Williams, Watson, Carson, Johnson, Jones
(4) S: Reid, Cook, Conner, inexpensive vet, probably Deon Bush
(1) LS: Winchester
(1) K: Butker
(1) P: Rookie
That leaves 1 spot floating if my count is right, probably goes to ST depth at DB and maybe another DL who can float both spots.
The defense has a lot of new faces, and you are going to question if enough has been done. Robinson and/or Smith will have to be instant-impact guys. Back 7 is still strong, but not AS strong.
On offense, the idea would be that you’ve added enough playmakers to make up for the drop from a really good defense.
I’m not sure I love this plan, but it’s a much different and more drastic-change approach!
Offseason Plan: Version 2.0
Spoiler!
Taking a little different tack with this one. What if the Chiefs DON’T swing for one of the top 5 WRs, or DO swing and miss? What’s the plan then? I think the plan becomes finding a good FIT player, and spreading out some of the money. AND moving much less of Patrick Mahomes’ contract.
Moves with players on 2023 roster:
Cut
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Extend
S Justin Reid (4/$48 – I debated this one, but with Jones walking, DI’s plan as DM is to keep the back seven as a real strength. Reid isn’t flashy or perfect, but he is a really solid player and consistent, which lets the Chiefs use McDuffie and Sneed the way they’re used, so I keep him; also, with Reid, Conner, and Cook on board, I’m covered at safety for at least the next two seasons at pretty reasonable prices. Thanks, rookie deals!)
Let Walk
Chris Jones (this one hurts, but unless the Chiefs could work out something with a team desperate to get him and not have to contend in FA for him, like the Cardinals or Lions or Bears, I don't see how a tag and trade could work)
Donavan Smith
Mike Edwards
Derrick Nnadi
Mike Danna
Drue Tranquill
Tershawn Wharton
Jerick McKinnon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Blake Bell
Richie James
Deon Bush
Tommy Townsend (cap is too tight to spend money on a P)
Jody Fortson
Prince Tega-Wanogho
Re-Sign
L'Jarius Sneed (4 years, $76M)
Willie Gay (3 years, $21M)
Nick Allegretti (2 years, $5.5M)
Blaine Gabbert (minimal deal)
James Winchester (minimal deal)
Malik Herring (ERFA tender)
Jack Cochrane (ERFA tender)
Nazeeh Johnson (ERFA tender)
Mike Caliendo (ERFA tender)
FA Moves
WR Curtis Samuel (4/$45)
DT Teair Tart (3/$23M
DT Javon Kinlaw (2/$7.5M)
LT Mekhi Becton (2/$12M)
RB (someone cheap from Gibson/Edmonds/Dobbins grouping).
Some minimal contract depth moves/ST moves (DT, DE, etc.)
With these moves down, I’d be left with about $7.5M in cap space. That’s not enough to get the rookies signed AND have room to operate, so I would have had to…
[Re-structure[/B]
Patrick Mahomes ($15M from Base salary, creating $12M of space)
This is half of what I moved in Version 1.0, but it still puts me at around $20M in cap space for 2024, with the FA moves accounted. That leaves enough left to sign the rookies and strike on a trade if a great one presents itself.
I still I haven't extended Bolton or Smith or Humphrey in this version, but I still only plan to extend Humphrey while letting the other 2 walk.
Draft Assumption: I will again run the draft on the current slotting, which has the Chiefs at 28, even though I think they end up lower.
Needs based on plan so far:
Samuel was added as a “plan B” scenario. He’s a player with some familiarity with the Chiefs system through Bienemy, he’s a versatile Z weapon with reliable hands who has proven he’s a good NFL player. He’s young for a guy entering his 3rd contract (28 for the 2024 season). He’s not the No. 1 WR some are slamming the table for, but Andy Reid would have a lot of fun with him. He also tracks the ball well downfield, has YAC ability, and has good speed. Basically, what the Chiefs were hoping they could get out of Toney, without the injury problems and apparent frying-pan-for-hands transplant.
On defense, in this run I spent a little more at LB to keep Willie Gay around. His speed, energy, and physicality do make a difference for the Chiefs. At DT, I still make Tart my top starter target and take a “reclamation” project stab with Kinlaw. Becton is someone I probably don’t like as much as Crow does, but it gives the team some flexibility going into the draft, hopefully. Between Becton, Morris, and Taylor, the Chiefs should be able to make the T situation work.
Simulator used: Pro Football Nework
1.28: Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina. I made a big change here in the player I’m considering. I take Legette over Adonai Mitchell, which I would not have done a few weeks ago. What changed? Watching some of his games, learning a bit more about his career context, and reading through some more scouting reports. Legette has very high upside and would be a dynamic option opposite Rashee Rice.
Also considered: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon. Leonard Taylor, DT, Miami. Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas, Brandon Dorlus, DE, Oregon, Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona.
2.59 McKinnley Jackson, DT, Texas A&M. Jackson is a good run defender with some ability to make plays in the backfield, and he fits nicely into the defensive plan. If they stay here, I don’t think a T worthy of this pick falls to KC.
Also considered: Maason Smith, DT, LSU; Will Shipley, RB, Clemson.
3.91 Kiran Amegadje, OT, Yale. Didn’t love my options here, but I am intrigued by Amegadje, whose 2023 season was cut short with a quad injury. He’s a big-time athlete at 6-5 330, with reported 36” arms. Also has experience playing on the interior. He’s raw and needs some work on technique, but the raw clay here is pretty top notch.
Also considered: Johnny Wilson, WR/TE, Florida State; Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan;.
4.123 Jacob Wiley, TE, TCU. Wiley is a new name I’ve started tracking. He’s big (6-6/6-7) but has good speed and has shown some recruiting chops. He could slide right into the field-stretching role the Chiefs have used in their 3 TEs sets with Dickhandrious Harris and Jody Fortson… and scouting reports also track Wiley as a really effective and willing blocker. Nice wrinkle for the 3 TE sets in 2024?
Also considered: Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona, Brenden Rice, WR,
5.152 Jaylin Simpson, DB, Auburn. Simpson is a good size/speed DB with some positional flexibility. Seems like a fit.
Also considered: Tykee Smtih, S, Georgia. Ainas Smith, WR, Texas A&M. Lots of DBs and WRs.
7.220 Luke McCaffery, WR, Rice. I’m intrigued by McCaffery, who doesn’t have a lot of experience at WR but has nice size and speed (and all sorts of skillsets that could make him a fun fit for tricky stuff). [/B]
Also considered: Lots of athletes.
Wrapping it up
I like the way this mock draft worked out a lot more than the previous version. Getting a strong run defender at DT out of this draft helps a lot. Legette and Wiley both offer the ability to stretch the field, adding back some of the explosiveness KC’s offense has been missing.
Feel pretty good about where this would leave the Chiefs. DL would definitely be a step down from the group with Jones, and I’m sure many would be concerned about whether the DL can get the job done with this group. This would definitely be more of a “group effort” approach along the DL.
B]Two-deep [/B](Re-signed,FA adds, rookies)
(2) QB: Mahomes/Gabbert
(3) RB: Pacheco/FA/Prince
(6) WR: Rice, Samuel, Legette/ Watson, Toney, Moore (or cut one of the wonder twins and slot a cheap vet here), McCafferyis PS
(3) TE: Kelce/Gray/Wiley
(1) LS: Winchester
(1) K: Butker
(1) P: UDFA or FA veteran
That leaves 1 spot floating if my count is right, probably goes to ST depth at DB and maybe another DL who can float both spots.
Offseason Plan: Version 1.0
Spoiler!
Moves with players on 2023 roster:
Cut
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Let Walk
Chris Jones (this one hurts, but unless the Chiefs could work out something with a team desperate to get him and not have to contend in FA for him, like the Cardinals or Lions or Bears, I don't see how a tag and trade could work)
Donavan Smith
Mike Edwards
Derrick Nnadi
Mike Danna
Willie Gay
Tershawn Wharton
Jerick McKinnon
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Blake Bell
Richie James
Nick Allegretti
Deon Bush
Tommy Townsend (cap is too tight to spend money on a P)
Jody Fortson
Malik Harring
Prince Tega-Wanogho
Re-Sign
L'Jarius Sneed (4 years, $76M)
Drue Tranquill (2 years, $9m) Mecole Hardman (2 years, $8M)
Blaine Gabbert (minimal deal)
James Winchester (minimal deal)
Jack Cochrane (ERFA tender)
Nazeeh Johnson (ERFA tender)
Mike Caliendo (ERFA tender)
[Re-structure[/B]
Patrick Mahomes ($30M from Base salary, creating $24M of space)
FA Moves
WR Marquise Brown (4/$70M)
DT Greg Gaines (2/$10M)
DT Teair Tart (3/$22M)
RB (someone cheap from Gibson/Edmonds/Dobbins grouping).
Some minimal contract depth moves/ST moves (OL, DT, DE, etc.)
With these moves down, I'm left with about $20M in cap space, give or take. Plenty of room to sign rookies, carry money into the season to operate, or even sign a veteran cut or carry over into 2025.
I haven't restructured anyone but Mahomes in this plan, but could work something out with Reid if needed, or Taylor. I haven't extended Bolton or Smith or Humphrey, but I only plan to extend Humphrey while letting the other 2 walk.
Draft Assumption: You know what, I'm going to just run the draft based on current position, even though I think they end up picking lower than the current slotting.
Needs based on plan so far:
With Brown added, I have the flexibility to see what is there in the early rounds and pick based on best value. It will almost assuredly be a T or WR, though a DT wouldn't be a bad spend, either. Thinking about G on day 3, as well as a few DB stabs.
1.25: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State. Yes, this is another huge commitment of resources, but Egbuka reminds me so much of Jeremy Maclin, who was really effective in Andy Reid's system. He's polished and complete and can be a three-level threat. KC gets a little bit of a bargain, IMO, due to Ohio State's offensive issues in 2023.
Also considered: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon. T'Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas. OT Amarius Mims, Georgia. OT Troy Fautanu, Washington.
2.57 Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma. I attempted to find a small trade-up to land Kingsley Suamataia, the BYU OT, but couldn't work out a deal using 2025 draft assets and settled for waiting and hoping one of Suamataia, Guyton, or Jordan Morgan would be left. In Guyton, I see a raw T prospect with a lot of upside, who can compete with Wanya Morris in Year 1 and continue developing as needed.
Also considered: Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan. Byrin Murphy II, DT, Texas. Leonard Taylor III, DT, Miami (FL).
3.88 Luke Lachey, TE, Iowa. It feels like a mistake to not go D here, but there was a run on DTs right before this pick, and I didn't like the leftovers at this slot and I ended up a little stuck. I love Lachey as a prospect and think he's the latest Iowa TE to outplay his draft slot. He's a bit of a discount because of his injury in 2023, but I don't have long-term concerns and think he gives KC a really nice TE2 and potential star to slide in when Kelce retires.
Also considered: Tyliek Williams, DT, Ohio State, Nazir Stackhouse, DT, Georgia. Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson.
4.125 Shemar Turner, DL, Texas A&M. Turner is a lengthy, bulky guy at 6-4/295 and has good interior pass rush potential. He's not a run stuffer but seems to fit the Spagnuolo mold. Good developmental potential.
5.167 Jason Marshall Jr, CB, Florida. Marshall fits KC's DB profile.
Also considered: Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan. Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona.
5.170 Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona. Cowing is a speedy slot with good hands who isn't physically imposing but is good against man and shows good hands. Wouldn't expect much of him in 2024, but he's someone who could give the Chiefs some quality production.
Also considered: Lots of DBs and WRs.
Wrapping it up
This mock didn't fall the way I really wanted, as I came out later on DT than planned and didn't get an IOL at all. Still, I am happy with the results. With the cap room KC has remaining, I think looking for training-camp cuts at DT makes a lot of sense. Having one more vet there would be comforting.
Feel pretty good about where this would leave the Chiefs. Two-deep (Re-signed,FA adds, rookies)
QB: Mahomes/Gabbert
RB: Pacheco/FA/Prince
WR: Brown, Rice, Egbuka/HardmanWatson, Toney, Moore (or cut one of the wonder twins and slot a cheap vet here), Cowing is PS
TE: Kelce/Gray/Lachey
OT: Morris/Guyton
OG: Thuney/Kinnard
C: Humphrey/vet depth
RG: Smith/Caliendo
RT: Taylor/Niang or Kinnard or Guyton or Morris
DE: Omenihu, Karlaftis/Anudike-Uzomah, veteran (2) (I could see someone like Yetur Gross-Matos or Dawuane Smoot here)
DT: Gaines, Tart, veteran,Turner
Jones recent comment about this maybe being his last game at Arrowhead kind of puts some writing on the wall. I don't think he's back, and at his number we probably shouldn't. He's a great player, no doubt, but sinking 28+ into a DT is tough to do.
Lots of penalties are objective as well, but we accept that.
I'm a PFF fan, but understand most aren't.
I think PFF got crushed at the outset quite rightfully. But my understanding is that they have diligently worked to improve their product. I don't know any of the specifics but was kind of hoping to foster a conversation with the folks who might keep up on that stuff to lazily get an update.
Jones recent comment about this maybe being his last game at Arrowhead kind of puts some writing on the wall. I don't think he's back, and at his number we probably shouldn't. He's a great player, no doubt, but sinking 28+ into a DT is tough to do.
I think when you step back to the big picture there is a lot of merit to investing draft capital at interior pass rusher, EDGE, WR, OL, and CB and filling the roster through free agency around that. (assuming you have solved for QB). Like bang for buck wise. Such a strategy should enable you to have a much deeper roster just given the premium teams are paying for the positions you focus on drafting.
I think when you step back to the big picture there is a lot of merit to investing draft capital at interior pass rusher, EDGE, WR, OL, and CB and filling the roster through free agency around that. (assuming you have solved for QB). Like bang for buck wise. Such a strategy should enable you to have a much deeper roster just given the premium teams are paying for the positions you focus on drafting.
It's great in theory, but it just requires you to hit on a really high number of draft picks. It's just tough.
You can't 'run it back' with this team. And if you retain Sneed and Jones, that's what you're committing to.
A) 'Run it back' rarely works
B) This ain't a good enough squad to do that with anyway.
It needs a fairly significant roster shakeup and bringing back both Sneed and Jones will prevent that.
Like O.City says, if you keep Jones and Sneed you can afford to draft a WR RD 1 or flip a pick for a guy like Hopkins. TEN might be more willing to do so now that Vrabel is out. If you go with a RD 1 WR maybe you find some money for a small contract for a guy like Renfrow to be your #3. Likewise, if you can get a guy like Hopkins you can go OT in RD 1 and wait until the mid-rounds for a #3 WR.
Also restructuring doesn't have to be catastrophic for the future of our cap. For instance, if you convert $10m of Mahomes Salary to Signing Bonus then that $10m is now spread from 2024 season at $10m, to the next 5 seasons at $2m each, and if the cap is going up by say $20m a year then you're good. The impact becomes less and less each season as long as you don't abuse it too much.
Like O.City says, if you keep Jones and Sneed you can afford to draft a WR RD 1 or flip a pick for a guy like Hopkins. TEN might be more willing to do so now that Vrabel is out. If you go with a RD 1 WR maybe you find some money for a small contract for a guy like Renfrow to be your #3. Likewise, if you can get a guy like Hopkins you can go OT in RD 1 and wait until the mid-rounds for a #3 WR.
Also restructuring doesn't have to be catastrophic for the future of our cap. For instance, if you convert $10m of Mahomes Salary to Signing Bonus then that $10m is now spread from 2024 season at $10m, to the next 5 seasons at $2m each, and if the cap is going up by say $20m a year then you're good. The impact becomes less and less each season as long as you don't abuse it too much.
I'd add that this might be the right strategy with J. Taylor. He's leading the league in penalties and not impressing anyone. We're locked into a sizable contract with him until at least next offseason. If he's absolutely terrible in the playoffs maybe you decide to cut your loss but need cap space to replace him, so maybe you restructure and bench or cut him, and bring in someone else with that cap space and pay the dead cap price for Taylor's restructure over the next 5 years. Not ideal, but something you might do to reduce the impact of a potentially poor decision.
Pete Caroll out for SEA... Maybe Lockett gets let go to save cap space. They're pressed up against the cap with only $1.5m and he's due for a new contract.
I think when you step back to the big picture there is a lot of merit to investing draft capital at interior pass rusher, EDGE, WR, OL, and CB and filling the roster through free agency around that. (assuming you have solved for QB). Like bang for buck wise. Such a strategy should enable you to have a much deeper roster just given the premium teams are paying for the positions you focus on drafting.
I agree largely. I don't know if I care too much about investing large amounts of capital in DT but ER, WR, OT, and CB I am 100% on board with. Keep em churning and developing. DT, RB, LB, S and IOL are relatively cheap in FA comparatively even if they are really good players. You only really pay high dollar for exceptional as those positions.
I agree largely. I don't know if I care too much about investing large amounts of capital in DT but ER, WR, OT, and CB I am 100% on board with. Keep em churning and developing. DT, RB, LB, S and IOL are relatively cheap in FA comparatively even if they are really good players. You only really pay high dollar for exceptional as those positions.
Yeah.
Two or three good players at those positions for what ONE at a premium position costs. Better be hitting on those in the draft.
I agree largely. I don't know if I care too much about investing large amounts of capital in DT but ER, WR, OT, and CB I am 100% on board with. Keep em churning and developing. DT, RB, LB, S and IOL are relatively cheap in FA comparatively even if they are really good players. You only really pay high dollar for exceptional as those positions.
It's why I'd move on from Justin Reid and feel pretty casual about letting someone like Gay walk. If you stumble upon elite players at those positions fine, maybe you try and keep them. Otherwise keep churning and developing. Cam Jones looked like he could be a very reliable run-stuffing LB in that Chargers game as an example
01-03-2024, 12:05 PM
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