***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

UK case-fatality-rate right now is 0.1% mostly because so many ppl are getting infected but not dying.

young ppl + vaccinated older ppl sI aumes

USA cfr's dropping for same reason pic.twitter.com/IeQ4AfCRCe

— Razib �� Khan (@razibkhan) July 19, 2021

Looks like the vaccines are making this essentially, Influenza.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

UK case-fatality-rate right now is 0.1% mostly because so many ppl are getting infected but not dying.

young ppl + vaccinated older ppl sI aumes

USA cfr's dropping for same reason pic.twitter.com/IeQ4AfCRCe

— Razib �� Khan (@razibkhan) July 19, 2021

Looks like the vaccines are making this essentially, Influenza.

At best a worse version of the flu. But there's also a generally assumed several week lag between cases and deaths so I wouldn't take overwhelming comfort in that being low when the case count is growing sharply.

We're all either going to get covid or a vaccine and many of us will get both.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

At best a worse version of the flu. But there's also a generally assumed several week lag between cases and deaths so I wouldn't take overwhelming comfort in that being low when the case count is growing sharply.

We're all either going to get covid or a vaccine and many of us will get both.

Looks like its uncoupled from cases at this point, but we'll have to continue to wait and see for sure.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

Looks like its uncoupled from cases at this point, but we'll have to continue to wait and see for sure.

And Covid takes the weakest and frail first.

We were running out of those people as most had already died.

Before the mass vaccination the UK was already running below average excess mortality.

I also think Delta looks a bit more transmissable but less deadly.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

And Covid takes the weakest and frail first.

We were running out of those people as most had already died.

Before the mass vaccination the UK was already running below average excess mortality.

I also think Delta looks a bit more transmissable but less deadly.

Because the ones dying before are now vaccinated and delta is infecting younger cohorts.

You're first statement shows why it appears that way.

[O.city]

I used to teach Bayes theorem and its results still surprise me!

Here’s the type of diagram that usually helps it all make sense for me: pic.twitter.com/A6toIcr5xe

— Kenny (@kennyshirley) July 19, 2021

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by O.city

I used to teach Bayes theorem and its results still surprise me!

Here’s the type of diagram that usually helps it all make sense for me: pic.twitter.com/A6toIcr5xe

— Kenny (@kennyshirley) July 19, 2021

The math follows but if the country is at 95% vaccination, then things go to zero in a hurry because the vaccines have a decent sterilizing immunity (who knows with delta) and seem to reduce transmissibility. However, 95% is a wet dream that we will never reach. 65% of the entire population was an initial goal but that doesn't even seem terribly likely. It's depressing.

[suzzer99]

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarco...nt_like_march/

That's right, the mrna vaccines seem to give a huge antibody surge that's way overkill (against the exact right target) for neutralizing and preventing infection, and then there's exponential decay over many months, and T-cell immunity takes over. But practically it looks like antigenic drift getting around the (still high) antibody titer is more significant than the antibody decay, and it will be T-cells (which won't be evaded) doing most of the work against future waves, and that's totally fine, we'd be set without any antibodies in play at all.

With high vaccination rates, variants that best avoid antibody neutralization to give vaccinated people a cold have a huge fitness advantage, so we're seeing roughly the behaviour we'd expect (rapidly out-competing other variants) even if there were no other fitness advantage at all.

... So tailored boosters are mostly about new neutralizing antibodies aiming for a moving target, which these folks don't think is worthwhile, and isn't the long-term point of the vaccines anyway. Antibodies are just plain overrated because neutralization is an easy binary to explain.

Really good thread that brings up a lot of points about delta, and has a lot of seemingly knowledgeable posters chiming in on various aspects of the vaccines and immunity.

[eDave]

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vis...tes-normalized

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by eDave

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vis...tes-normalized

That's a nice tool. Looks like a race to the bottom between Missouri, Florida and Arkansas. I am happy that my state is still hovering below the 5 per 100k mark, and that number is a little misleading given the southern part of Illinois is doing much worse than the northern part, which makes sense given the differing vaccination rates.

Mayo Clinic also has some good graphs and maps. I especially like their county maps for each state. SW Missouri is all kinds of dark/ugly red.

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarco...nt_like_march/


Really good thread that brings up a lot of points about delta, and has a lot of seemingly knowledgeable posters chiming in on various aspects of the vaccines and immunity.

I read a bit and lots of good math in there. That thread was very un-Reddit-like in its professionalism. It's rare to read something on the web and come away feeling just a bit smarter.

[KS Smitty]

American Academy of Pediatrics recommends in person learning with masks for upcoming school year.

https://www.aappublications.org/news...schools-071821

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by KS Smitty

American Academy of Pediatrics recommends in person learning with masks for upcoming school year.

https://www.aappublications.org/news...schools-071821

Good to see. There is a gang of anti-maskers in my little suburb that is bound and damn determined to bully the school board to say no masks even for kids that can't be vaccinated yet.

I was listening to one lady at a birthday party over the weekend saying, "I trained my son to wear a mask but I will not send him back if they have to keep wearing them". First off, I didn't realize her son was a circus animal and secondly, you don't have to "train" kids to wear them if your parenting skills are worth a shit. My wife and I sat down with our kids (5 and 7 when pandemic broke out) and explained what was going on and how masks can help each other and they have been absolutely fine with it because we aren't big damn babies about it.

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by KS Smitty

American Academy of Pediatrics recommends in person learning with masks for upcoming school year.



https://www.aappublications.org/news...schools-071821

Good. This tweet is basically how I feel

@jkirk___: Really having a hard time accepting that kids sacrificed 16+ months of their childhood, 2 school years of normalcy, mostly to protect adults from a virus that they’re now choosing NOT to get vaccinated against, making kids who can’t vax more vulnerable & holding everyone hostage

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by Swanman

Good to see. There is a gang of anti-maskers in my little suburb that is bound and damn determined to bully the school board to say no masks even for kids that can't be vaccinated yet.

I was listening to one lady at a birthday party over the weekend saying, "I trained my son to wear a mask but I will not send him back if they have to keep wearing them". First off, I didn't realize her son was a circus animal and secondly, you don't have to "train" kids to wear them if your parenting skills are worth a shit. My wife and I sat down with our kids (5 and 7 when pandemic broke out) and explained what was going on and how masks can help each other and they have been absolutely fine with it because we aren't big damn babies about it.

Great examples these morons are setting. Good, keep your kid home. They'll probably get infected cause your dumbass doesn't give a shit about covid.