Disney+ coming November 12th

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Every entertainment entity wants to keep all their content to themselves and not share the profits with Netflix, HBO, Comcast etc. Let the consumer decide approach.

If Dane's prediction of a decade before we get another consolation or shift in the paradigm on how we receive content. I think tech will decide that for the market before these other content and consumer demands force consolidation.

The Film & TV business isn't like the Music Business, which is regulated by Congress. Spotify, Pandora and other streaming entities exist because of a loophole in the law, which allows Compulsory Licences.

No such laws exist for Movies and TV Series. The owners of said IP decide when and where their product exists and is available through Direct Contractual Licensing. Even if an aggregate startup like a Spotify were to be created by software engineers, what motivation would IP owners have to license their products to said Startup and how could that startup afford the licensing fees without a customer base, which is already served by the IP owners directly?

At that point, the Startup is basically Netflix in its infancy and we already know how that story ends.

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I come at this from a tech prospective. Automation, Big Data and AI will have matured into the main stream within 5 years. EVERYTHING will change including how we get our entertainment content.

I don't think it will change from the consumer viewpoint. HBO, Universal, Disney/Fox and Warner Brothers won't suddenly decide to license their content to another Streamer due to advances in technology.

What we're all witnessing is what should have happened with the music industry in 1997: These same Mega IP Holders should have created a streaming platform at that point in time but instead, all of the Fat Cats sat around and waited for someone else to innovate (i.e., Apple). The Music Industry rejoiced when Apple launched iTunes and thought the battle was over (they were, of course, wrong). They learned their lesson but instead of creating Spotify, they now own more than 70% of the streamer.

Now, I won't discount the possibility of a streaming app like Movies Anywhere (Disney-owned), which is an aggregate app that allows digital copies of films and TV series purchased from various retail and online merchants to exist in one simple library (all of the studios have agreed to allow their IP to be shared in this app, save Paramount). That said, I don't really see the viability in that type of product due to the fact that a Roku or similar device essentially does that already: All of the apps exist in one curated screen so from that perspective, there's no reason for such an app to exist.

The bottom line is that the Content Creators have let others, like Amazon and Netflix do their work for them. Advances in technology won't make them suddenly reverse course and re-license to Amazon and Netflix again. And keep in mind, the extra revenue from their own Streamer vs. licensing to Amazon and/or Netflix will go towards new content, furthering their IP supremacy.

If there's anything that's going to change with the Big Four pulling back their content, it's Netflix. They're already operating with a massive amount of debt service and losing Lucasfilm, Marvel, Warner's owned shows like Friends, Uni's Parks & Rec, et al, will make Netflix vulnerable to a corporate takeover.