***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigBeauford]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

From what I understand, anyone that died at home of an unknown nature in NYC was labeled as Covid-19. They attributed it to more "at home" deaths than normal... Well if you are in a "stay at home" environment, there would be more at home deaths from other causes.

These are high level counts with likely big swings of +- the real total. We will all have to wait for disease registrars to give us the real 2020 totals...probably in 2021.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by TLO

I've noticed this too. I've mentioned there's always a swift kick to the balls whenever good news is discovered.

Maybe there's a reason for that. Some of the good news we've heard in the past has turned out to be false. But that's also true of bad news we've heard.

But not ALL the good news can be wrong.

Only 18 deaths in NYC yesterday

[O.city]

Originally Posted by notorious

Yet the "bad news" stats are believed without question.

The USC and Stanford studies are shining a light on this, yet a lot of people want to immediately discredit the info.

I am getting tired of this.

They're pieces of the puzzle for sure. But like anything, you need rigorous settings to get these things from. Luckily, we're getting a similar picture from all the serology testing. They're doing rather large studies at Oxford and in NYC on this so we'll get more info soon.

I hope like hell they're right and it's way more prevalent than we thought. There's some suspicion that NYC may already be approaching herd immunity as the down side of the slope is pretty rapid but I'm somewhat skeptical of that.

We just don't know shit about this ****er. We've studied some things for ****ing decades and still learn new shit. It's frankly, amazing that we know what we do about Sars Cov 2 this quickly.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by TLO

I've noticed this too. I've mentioned there's always a swift kick to the balls whenever good news is discovered.

Maybe there's a reason for that. Some of the good news we've heard in the past has turned out to be false. But that's also true of bad news we've heard.

But not ALL the good news can be wrong.

Like a lot of us have said, and Mont just now, it ends up being somewhere in the middle, which is good news.

When I heard the USC and Stanford study results, I wasn't surprised in the least. It makes sense.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by BigBeauford

These are high level counts with likely big swings of +- the real total. We will all have to wait for disease registrars to give us the real 2020 totals...probably in 2021.

Correct, but these, if remember correctly, 3700 deaths are currently in the count.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by notorious

Yet the "bad news" stats are believed without question.

The USC and Stanford studies are shining a light on this, yet a lot of people want to immediately discredit the info.

I am getting tired of this.

The issue is just that people aren't used to reading about and understanding experimental studies and the peer review process. All of these studies are promising, but the way science works is to assume that you're wrong until there's enough evidence to conclude that you're right. That isn't anything different with this, but most people aren't used to thinking about it in those terms.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

The issue is just that people aren't used to reading about and understanding experimental studies and the peer review process. All of these studies are promising, but the way science works is to assume that you're wrong until there's enough evidence to conclude that you're right. That isn't anything different with this, but most people aren't used to thinking about it in those terms.

It also shows you can set up stats and studies to somewhat yield what you want at times, so it's always true to let the experts look it over first.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by notorious

Like a lot of us have said, and Mont just now, it ends up being somewhere in the middle, which is good news.

When I heard the USC and Stanford study results, I wasn't surprised in the least. It makes sense.

I think we have enough info to say that is seems like a more dangerous virus than Influenza but by how much who knows and that's about it so far. I am taking into account more than just CFR etc.. . (flame away)

[O.city]

At this point, it looks like we actually are lucky it's not worse mortality wise than it is. It shows we're woefully underprepared for a pandemic and hopefully we can be more ready for the next one.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by TLO

Nods approvingly at 'Hamas Jenkins' post.

(Google's coagulopathies)

*continues to nod approvingly*

You could have at least posted the definition and saved the rest of us the trouble.

Coagulopathy (also called a bleeding disorder) is a condition in which the blood's ability to coagulate (form clots) is impaired. This condition can cause a tendency toward prolonged or excessive bleeding (bleeding diathesis), which may occur spontaneously or following an injury or medical and dental procedures.

[TLO]

So according to Worldomoters, over 2500 deaths today.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

At this point, it looks like we actually are lucky it's not worse mortality wise than it is. It shows we're woefully underprepared for a pandemic and hopefully we can be more ready for the next one.

Unfortunately SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola were not enough to scare us, I am not sure this one will be either.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

You could have at least posted the definition and saved the rest of us the trouble.

I thought it had something to do with ugly puppies.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

NYC had only 18 deaths yesterday

NYC maybe but the entire state had 600+ according to Worldometers

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Unfortunately SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola were not enough to scare us, I am not sure this one will be either.

We're the "king of ventilators" now. Nothing can stop us.