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Old 09-13-2020, 06:08 PM  
Coach Coach is offline
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Hurricane Sally - Cat 2 as of 9/14/2020
If any of you guys are in the area, or have family in the area where this storm is going to hit, stay safe. This looks like it may be a bad one, especially at New Orleans and if the gulf waters is very warm.



Projected to be Cat 1, but with recent history, I'm not sure I'd trust that. I may put it in Cat 2/3.
Last edited by Coach; 09-14-2020 at 04:53 PM..
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Old 09-13-2020, 06:17 PM   #2
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You never know with these damn things...At the moment the HWRF model has it going into the Miss. coast...Whoever is on the east side of the storm will get a ton of rain..The weather guy just said that the Florida keys hasn't had this much rain since Katrina...New Orleans definitely doesn't need that type of rain...
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Old 09-13-2020, 06:22 PM   #3
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You never know with these damn things...At the moment the HWRF model has it going into the Miss. coast...Whoever is on the east side of the storm will get a ton of rain..The weather guy just said that the Florida keys hasn't had this much rain since Katrina...New Orleans defiantly doesn't need that type of rain...
Totally agree. Those rains, and Katrina....really dark and terrible memories I have of that time.
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Old 09-13-2020, 06:56 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Athis View Post
You never know with these damn things...At the moment the HWRF model has it going into the Miss. coast...Whoever is on the east side of the storm will get a ton of rain..The weather guy just said that the Florida keys hasn't had this much rain since Katrina...New Orleans definitely doesn't need that type of rain...
Yeah, I know that they're projecting this to be a Cat. 1, but I'm not sure I trust that. Going off by memory, I can be wrong here, but I thought when Laura was in that area, it was projected to be a 2 at one time, but it evolved into a 4.

Katrina was supposedly to be projected to a 3. Well we all know how that one turned out.

I'm more interested in knowing how warm the gulf waters are right now.
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:01 PM   #5
Bwana Bwana is offline
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Originally Posted by Coach View Post
Yeah, I know that they're projecting this to be a Cat. 1, but I'm not sure I trust that. Going off by memory, I can be wrong here, but I thought when Laura was in that area, it was projected to be a 2 at one time, but it evolved into a 4.

Katrina was supposedly to be projected to a 3. Well we all know how that one turned out.

I'm more interested in knowing how warm the gulf waters are right now.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/dat...egof_tmap.html
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:03 PM   #6
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Much appreciated it.

I see on the far south west pin region, it shows 86 and the pin directly above it is at 85.
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:06 PM   #7
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Much appreciated it.

I see on the far south west pin region, it shows 86 and the pin directly above it is at 85.

You can also hold left mouse button and move the map around.
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:09 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
You can also hold left mouse button and move the map around.
Yeah, I see that one did say 87 (close to the TX shoreline), but I'd be surprised if it heads that direction. Most models that I am seeing is in agreement that LA is the path. Just the question remains is where it's going after it hits in LA.
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:12 PM   #9
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Old 09-13-2020, 07:13 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Coach View Post
Yeah, I see that one did say 87 (close to the TX shoreline), but I'd be surprised if it heads that direction. Most models that I am seeing is in agreement that LA is the path. Just the question remains is where it's going after it hits in LA.

Well hopefully it remains a dinker and doesn't grow into a monster.

On a side note, it's loaded with nasty storms out there right now, in the Atlantic.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 09-14-2020, 04:51 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
Well hopefully it remains a dinker and doesn't grow into a monster.

On a side note, it's loaded with nasty storms out there right now, in the Atlantic.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
That it is. I believe it is the 2nd time in history that the Atlantic had 5 tropical storms, the last one occurring in 1971.

On that note, I believe Sally is now a Cat. 2

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../142043.shtml?

Quote:
Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Tuesday, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Quote:
Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.
Cat. 3 isn't quite out of the question yet, since this thing is only moving 6 mph.
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Old 09-14-2020, 05:16 PM   #12
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This is going to test the levee system put up post Katrina. Not by the hurricane winds but by the water surge and predicted rain.
As we all know too well now, that levee system fails, we have The same situation as Katrina.
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Old 09-14-2020, 05:31 PM   #13
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This is going to test the levee system put up post Katrina. Not by the hurricane winds but by the water surge and predicted rain.
As we all know too well now, that levee system fails, we have The same situation as Katrina.
Only if said storm is as bad as Katrina
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Old 09-14-2020, 06:41 PM   #14
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I thought this thread was about MDA...
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Old 09-14-2020, 07:28 PM   #15
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I thought this thread was about MDA...
Nope, sorry to disappoint.
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