***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Stanley Nickels]

Originally Posted by FAX

Thanks. I did mention that those were "my words and interpretation", did I not?

But you're right ... if the 80,000 cases in China represent 14% of the total "potentially undocumented", that's easy math and should be a reasonable number for the time being.

But while we're here, let's think this through a moment ...

For every 1 diagnosis they estimate 6 undocumented, right?

How did the "estimated" undocumented get the disease? From the documented? From another population of unknown and therefore "undocumented"? From each other?

FAX

The estimated undocumented would have contracted it from the known carriers who had the disease prior to the time frame used for this analysis (10-23 Jan 2020). In Bayesian simulation you have to account for some unknowns, both known and unknown (thanks for that one, Mr. Rumsfeld). Hate typing long answers on phone so I will revisit this when I get to my desk tomorrow.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by eDave

I got you. Good night, sweet prince

NEW: Three of Dallas County’s new confirmed #Covid19 cases are currently hospitalized in critical condition. And two of those are young: one in their 20’s, another in their 30’s. The third critical patient is in their 60’s. No underlying health conditions. #WFAA #Coronavirus

— Teresa Woodard (@twoodard8) March 17, 2020

Barely any deaths among young people in Italy and South Korea. And Italy was hit by a tsunami.

Here deaths by age group in Italy pic.twitter.com/jTGr85RliN

— COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 update Norway (@Covid19Norway) March 17, 2020

I think he was going for the reply. I posted the Dallas county info earlier and TLO responded

I think this is reassuring information. It's clear some young people are getting quite sick, but seem to die very infrequently

[Stanley Nickels]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Barely any deaths among young people in Italy and South Korea. And Italy was hit by a tsunami.

Here deaths by age group in Italy pic.twitter.com/jTGr85RliN

— COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 update Norway (@Covid19Norway) March 17, 2020

I think he was going for the reply. I posted the Dallas county info earlier and TLO responded

I think this is reassuring information. It's clear some young people are getting quite sick, but seem to die very infrequently

For those of you viewing the Italian death chart in the Tweet above, please note that the proportions in the middle column represent fatalities in each age group relative to ALL fatalities; the actual "fatality rate" (ie, how likely the people at each age group are to die in Italy) is shown in the RIGHT column. Still alarming but important to note the distinction.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels

The estimated undocumented would have contracted it from the known carriers who had the disease prior to the time frame used for this analysis (10-23 Jan 2020). In Bayesian simulation you have to account for some unknowns, both known and unknown (thanks for that one, Mr. Rumsfeld). Hate typing long answers on phone so I will revisit this when I get to my desk tomorrow.

Thanks. I'd very much like to work through these sims. Frankly, I have a lot of questions.

It's the unknown unknowns that trouble me the most ... on either and both sides of the spectrum.

FAX

[Stanley Nickels]

Originally Posted by FAX

Thanks. I'd very much like to work through these sims. Frankly, I have a lot of questions.

It's the unknown unknowns that trouble me the most ... on either and both sides of the spectrum.

FAX

Totally understand. Please trust that the peer review process (while MUCH, MUCH faster than anything I ever deal with) has ensured that your concerns are at least accounted for in the modeling. Will catch up with you tomorrow.

[Titty Meat]

Oh good lord! Shooting at the Sun Fresh by me in Westport at 10:15 on a Tuesday night. I hope it wasnt over something stupid like toilet. 2020.... man...

[Hammock Parties]

I feel like this is a powder keg that's about to blow.

I just drove down to the Waldo strip and it was dead.

24-hour Hyvee at 75th and State Line closes at 10 PM now.

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Oh good lord! Shooting at the Sun Fresh by me in Westport at 10:15 on a Tuesday night. I hope it wasnt over something stupid like toilet. 2020.... man...

Omaha had a active shooter at the Hy-Vee on 180th & Q.

Thats the rich and well off folks Hy Vee

[oaklandhater]

what the **** is going on in FL


https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-...A2JsdPmwdQsnzY

Close down shit you assholes.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Oh good lord! Shooting at the Sun Fresh by me in Westport at 10:15 on a Tuesday night. I hope it wasnt over something stupid like toilet. 2020.... man...

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

I feel like this is a powder keg that's about to blow.

I just drove down to the Waldo strip and it was dead.

24-hour Hyvee at 75th and State Line closes at 10 PM now.

Get a hold of your pussy selves. This is martial law now. What people have been asking for. Get used to it, going to be this way for a while.

[oaklandhater]

Iran states that 15% of people who died of coronavirus were under 40 on a total of 988 reported deaths. In Italy just 2 people under 40 have died on a total of 2500 reported deaths.

https://time.com/5804706/iran-corona...rce=reddit.com


worrying.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

what the **** is going on in FL


https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-...A2JsdPmwdQsnzY

Close down shit you assholes.

It's FL. The same state where they rape pool noodles. Other people's pool noodles. Because raping your own pool noodle is immoral.

[oaklandhater]

https://www.equibbler.com/usa-corona...nd-100-deaths/


With around 6000 coronavirus cases and 100 death US public health officials warns the residents that if they don't take call to action seriously, the country may approach the situation in italy

[eDave]

Vegas is closed.

[SupDock]

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ

— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020

Follow the link for doom and gloom