Worst Case 1st Round

[Chargem]

Whats the worst case result that the Chiefs could realistically actually do in the first round, in your opinion, and how would you feel about it if it happened? You can include trades.

I think my worst case that I can see the Chiefs actually doing is:

29. Skyy Moore
30. Travis Jones

How would I feel about this?

Actually pretty fine. It would just feel a bit underwhelming.

[Chris Meck]

I'd be pretty underwhelmed.

A small, slow WR and a space eater DT?

Yeah, that's a no for me, dawg.

[htismaqe]

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

Probably so, yeah.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

This is a close 2nd for me, trading up to about 16 or 18, but still not getting one of the top ~4 WRs or DEs...

[DJ's left nut]

I've done that exercise in a couple other threads around here.

Bottom line is that for the draft board to really take a shit ahead of us, the QBs have to slide. And if the QBs slide, we can get a trade-down made w/ the Lions and Seahawks. May even be able to get 2 of 'em done.

I don't see a scenario where Skyy Moore goes in the first round. Jones I could see, but I see more ceiling in him than some do.

For me the most underwhelming 1st round that I can actually see happening is something like Mafe/Pickens. I could see the Chiefs seeing both of those guys at 'the bottom of the tier' and being unwilling to risk losing out altogether on that tier of players so they stand pat and make the picks.

And yeah, that would be DAMN underwhelming. But it does at least come with the upshot of two guys who could be very good.

And as far as 'worst case scenarios' go - well it's a long way removed from Jonathan Baldwin or Trazelle Jenkins.

[kccrow]

The worst case for me is to trade up for Jameson Williams and then draft Ojabo at 30.

Zero impact WR until the last 3rd of the season and a guy that won't play until 2023 with huge question marks looming over his future.

Other than that, they could pretty much draft any players most boards have in the top 60 and I'd feel okay about it.

I have zero issues with trading up if it's to get a guy they think will be an instant impact.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The worst case for me is to trade up for Jameson Williams and then draft Ojabo at 30.

Zero impact WR until the last 3rd of the season and a guy that won't play until 2023 with huge question marks looming over his future.

Other than that, they could pretty much draft any players most boards have in the top 60 and I'd feel okay about it.

I have zero issues with trading up if it's to get a guy they think will be an instant impact.

I have no problem with a small trade up. I'm just not into giving away an extra 1st or 2nd to go too high, when I just don't see the separation between the edge rushers and WR's to justify it.

Other than that, I'm with you. I hate the thought of taking guys with injuries and hoping they come back full strength. Hope doesn't win a lot of football games.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The worst case for me is to trade up for Jameson Williams and then draft Ojabo at 30.

Zero impact WR until the last 3rd of the season and a guy that won't play until 2023 with huge question marks looming over his future.

Other than that, they could pretty much draft any players most boards have in the top 60 and I'd feel okay about it.

I have zero issues with trading up if it's to get a guy they think will be an instant impact.

There's such an insane amount of long-term potential that I think I'd still prefer that over the Mafe/Pickens scenario I outlined.

Granted, the risk there is staggering. But if those guys get healthy and play to their pre-injury form, you've added 2 guys who were legitimately in the conversation as top 10 picks.

I wouldn't be terribly excited about that much risk (one or the other is fine), but it's not something that I'd be apoplectic about either.

[O.city]

They're gonna take a big swing at someone. Thats just how Veach rolls.

[duncan_idaho]

Move up worst case:

29 and 30 are packaged to move up for an injured player (Jameson Williams).

Stay-pay worst case:
Chiefs burn one of 29/30 on Ojabo and use the other on Skyy Moore.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

They're gonna take a big swing at someone. Thats just how Veach rolls.

We say that, but CEH was anything but a 'big swing'.

And honestly, the OBJ thread was something akin to shortening your hack with two outs and being content with a hustle double instead of swinging for the fences. He moderated risk in a BIG way there and in the process left some upside on the table in the form of the necessary contract that Brown would eventually secure.

His Bolton and Creed were extremely safe picks. On the flipside, I think Speaks was, in his mind anyway, a safe pick. And in that instance it burned him.

I don't think we can say with any certainty that Veach is some wild gambler in the draft. The trade up for Mahomes was executed by Dorsey (yes, based on the strong recommendation of Veach, but still - Dorsey was the one who made the determination that the risk was worth the reward).

I think some of the "VEACH IS SUPER AGGRESSIVE!!!" stuff is a little overblown.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

We say that, but CEH was anything but a 'big swing'.

And honestly, the OBJ thread was something akin to shortening your hack with two outs and being content with a hustle double instead of swinging for the fences. He moderated risk in a BIG way there and in the process left some upside on the table in the form of the necessary contract that Brown would eventually secure.

His Bolton and Creed were extremely safe picks. On the flipside, I think Speaks was, in his mind anyway, a safe pick. And in that instance it burned him.

I don't think we can say with any certainty that Veach is some wild gambler in the draft. The trade up for Mahomes was executed by Dorsey (yes, based on the strong recommendation of Veach, but still - Dorsey was the one who made the determination that the risk was worth the reward).

I think some of the "VEACH IS SUPER AGGRESSIVE!!!" stuff is a little overblown.

I dont' think he's gonna sit and take a guy at 29 and 30 is what I'm saying. They'll either move one to go up, move both, move back and or trade for an existing player. I think.

[O.city]

I mean, look at what he's done since he's been here.

Lost in 18

Blew out and rebuilt the defense with Clark and HB etc

Lost in 20

Blew out and rebuilt the OL with a big trade and a big free agent signing.

I am hoping they go more draft young heavy with this but I wouldn't be surprised if they did something no one sees coming.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

I dont' think he's gonna sit and take a guy at 29 and 30 is what I'm saying. They'll either move one to go up, move both, move back and or trade for an existing player. I think.

And I'm just saying that the one 1st round pick he's actually made here, he DID stand pat and make it. And took very possibly the lowest upside, highest floor, player available on the board at that time. It was as vanilla as a pick gets.

And when he was dealing away his 1st round picks for Clark and even OBJ, he was in a far different cap situation than he is now, as well as a different stage of the competitive cycle.

I think there's more to it than "Veach likes to trade his picks". Circumstances may very well have him sitting pat here and I don't know that we have enough information to really draw a 'trend' for him in the first place.