Rank the edge rushers

[RunKC]

Surprised nobody has done this yet. Who are your top 10 edge rushers for this team?

Yes you can start the list with guys we clearly can’t get

[staylor26]

If they feel Ebiketie is a fit, I have no problem with taking him as early as the 1st.

It’s not my preference, but I wouldn’t hate it at all.

What I like about Ebiketie and Mafe is that they’re the kind of high upside swings that I can almost always be talked into.

[Couch-Potato]

ESPN's SackSEER Algo Projects the Top NFL Edge Rushers from the 2022 Draft Class:

Spoiler!

1. Travon Walker, Georgia
SackSEER projection: 27.2 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 8
Similar historical prospects: Ezekiel Ansah, Brian Orakpo

Walker's draft stock has risen in recent weeks, and in SackSEER he manages to edge Hutchinson and Thibodeaux by a small margin.

Walker's best SackSEER metrics come from his terrific combine. His workout numbers ranged from good to fantastic. His 4.51-second 40-yard dash was great, especially for a 272-pound player. His 6.89-second 3-cone drill is in the top 10% of times by drafted edge rushers. His 35.5-inch vertical leap and 10-foot, 3-inch broad jump were also good.

Of course, what drags him down a bit -- and why many NFL fans are likely skeptical of his high draft position -- is his lack of college production. Walker had only 9.5 sacks in three college seasons. Is Walker another workout warrior whose lack of college production foreshadows a disappointing NFL career? Don't be so sure.

It may be counterintuitive, but workout scores are a more significant indicator of NFL success than college sack rate. Of course, you would prefer a prospect who had both production and strong workouts, but historically, if you had to choose, you would be better-off with the workout warrior than the productive player with bad workouts.

In college, players such as Ezekiel Ansah and Clay Matthews had even fewer career sacks than Walker, and both turned out to be successful NFL players. Meanwhile, Jarvis Jones and Calvin Pace -- strong college performers with poor workout numbers -- had only a limited impact in the NFL.

Walker is a strong prospect. However, like the other members of this year's big three, he is not a "generational" prospect, and his projection is weaker than the projection for recent top edge rusher prospects such as Myles Garrett and Chase Young.


2. Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
SackSEER projection: 26.9 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 1
Similar historical prospects: Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith

Hutchinson is a prospect that SackSEER has difficulty figuring out. On the one hand, Hutchinson was terrific as a senior, recording 14 sacks in 14 games. However, SackSEER is normally skeptical of a prospect with only one good season, especially when that season was the player's senior season.

In Hutchinson's case, of course, that gloss would be totally unfair. He did not have a true junior year, as he only played two games in Michigan's COVID-shortened season. You really would have liked to see what Hutchinson could have done as a junior. To his credit, he finished with a strong passes defensed rate, which does portend professional success.

Hutchinson's workouts were similarly mixed. His 6.73-second 3-cone drill was terrific -- it is better than the times of all but three edge rushers drafted since 1998. His explosion drills, however, were just average.

It all adds up to a projection that is certainly positive -- there is more to like than not to like with Hutchinson. However, there are some weaknesses in his projection, which means that Hutchinson is a very good prospect rather than a great one.

The highlights that will make everyone want to draft DE Aidan HutchinsonCheck out NFL draft prospect Aidan Hutchinson's relentless moments at Michigan as a defensive end.


3. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
SackSEER projection: 26.6 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 7
Similar historical prospects: Brian Burns, Ryan Kerrigan

Thibodeaux has great physical traits, but his pre-draft workouts did not quite match his reputation. He had a great 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the combine. However, he reserved the other workout drills for his pro day, and those numbers were less impressive. His 9-foot, 11-inch broad jump was shorter than what you would expect from a player with a similar 40, and Thibodeaux did not perform a vertical leap. Thibodeaux also ran the 3-cone in 7.32 seconds, which is much, much slower than one would expect from a player with his straight-line speed.

Again, Thibodeaux's workouts were good, but they were far worse than those of other combine busters of drafts past, such as Von Miller and Khalil Mack.

To his credit, similar prospects whose physical traits were hyped but who disappointed in actual workouts -- namely, Jason Pierre-Paul and Carlos Dunlap, whose workouts were far worse than Thibodeaux's -- ultimately had NFL careers more consistent with their hype than their workout numbers. Thibodeaux could certainly follow a similar path, and he might just be one of those unusual prospects whose athletic ability just does not translate into combine drills.

Thibodeaux's production paints a similarly uncertain picture. He had 19 sacks in 30 games. That is much better than average, but falls behind some of the great prospects like Terrell Suggs and Julius Peppers.

Thibodeaux is an excellent prospect with a lot to his credit, and he is certainly worthy of a first-round pick. However, he is not quite a "can't-miss" prospect, and no result -- whether it be future star or bust -- should be surprising.


4. George Karlaftis, Purdue
SackSEER projection: 25.4 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 24
Similar historical prospects: T.J. Watt, Justin Smith

Karlaftis has a strong projection and is an interesting prospect because he has unusual "splits" in his SackSEER numbers. First, Karlaftis performed very well in the two jump drills, recording a 38-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump. Typically, a player who performs well on the jumps also runs a quick 40-yard dash. However, Karlaftis did not. He ran a 4.78-second 40-yard dash, which is below average.

A similar split occurs with Karlaftis' production. Typically, edge rushers become more productive as they advance in college, which is why SackSEER is more impressed with a 10-sack junior season than a 10-sack senior one. However, Karlaftis arguably performed best as a freshman. He recorded 7.5 sacks in 12 games as a freshman while recording only 4.5 sacks in 12 games as a junior. Karlaftis, however, did record four passes defensed as a senior, and his projection benefits from a strong passes defensed rate overall.

Karlaftis, in many ways, is the perfect edge rusher for this draft, which has lots of potential but also includes a fair share of question marks.


5. David Ojabo, Michigan
SackSEER projection: 25.1 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 30
Similar historical prospects: Will Smith, Harold Landry III

Ojabo is an intriguing prospect with a lot to his credit, but unfortunately he tore his Achilles tendon during Michigan's pro day.

Ojabo showed great explosion at the NFL combine, recording a 4.55-second 40-yard dash, a 35-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 2-inch broad jump. Ojabo loses some points because he did not have a 3-cone time and his time in the short shuttle -- a relatively slow 4.55 seconds -- implies that his 3-cone would have been much worse than his explosion numbers suggest.

Ojabo was also extremely productive early in his career, a good sign for success. He had 11 sacks in 13 games when just a sophomore at Michigan. However, early production is not a guarantee of professional success, as there have been prospects such as George Selvie who put up strong sack numbers as sophomores and then faded over their final two years. A skeptic might also suggest that Ojabo benefited tremendously from having possible first overall pick Hutchinson drawing attention on the other side. That said, Ojabo also made a few plays other than sacks and finished with a good passes defensed rate.

Ojabo's injury makes his likely draft position highly uncertain. A team willing to wait a year for Ojabo to recover could end up getting great value if he turns out to be as good as some of his SackSEER numbers suggest.


6. Jermaine Johnson II, Florida State
SackSEER projection: 23.7 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 10
Similar historical prospects: Bradley Chubb, Kamerion Wimbley

Johnson is a similar prospect to Walker. His combine was excellent, although not quite as good as Walker's. Johnson ran a quick 4.58-second 40-yard dash and had a great broad jump at 10 feet, 5 inches. Johnson did disappoint a bit at the vertical leap, gaining only 32 inches.

Check out our NFL Draft Day Predictor
ESPN Sports Analytics' new Draft Day Predictor tool uses various factors to project the most likely picks at each first-round draft slot, estimated ranges of where top prospects could fall and more.

The biggest difference between Walker and Johnson is that Johnson did not run the 3-cone. Walker had an extremely quick 6.89-second 3-cone. SackSEER thinks that Johnson's 3-cone would have been approximately 7.17 seconds based on Johnson's other drills.

Johnson was more productive than Walker, notching 11.5 sacks as a senior and recording a slightly better passes defensed rate. However, because workouts are a stronger indicator of edge rusher success than sack production, Walker's workouts put him on top. Overall, despite being SackSEER's sixth-ranked prospect, Johnson is fewer than four sacks away from Walker, SackSEER's top-rated prospect.

Johnson's proximity to Walker demonstrates just how closely SackSEER rates the top edge rushers in this year's draft, and how a smart team might be able to snag a promising player at virtually any point in the first round.


7. Drake Jackson, USC
SackSEER projection: 20.9 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 61
Similar historical prospects: Jerry Hughes, Rashan Gary

Jackson is a bit unusual in that he performed every combine drill except for the 40-yard dash. That said, Jackson was excellent in the drills that he did perform in pre-draft workouts. He notched a 36.5-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 7-inch broad jump at the combine and then a 7.09-second 3-cone at his pro day. Jackson had very consistent production at USC, recording nearly the same sack total in each of his three seasons -- approximately one sack every two games. He also finished with four PBUs, which gives him a better-than-average passes defensed rate.

Overall, Jackson is a solid prospect and could offer great value where he is currently rated, which is somewhere in the second round -- and his SackSEER numbers are not far off from those of the top prospects. Indeed, if you did not adjust for expected draft position, Jackson's projection would be comparable to that of the big three.

Drake Jackson's NFL draft profileCheck out the best highlights that contributed to a stellar college career for USC's Drake Jackson.


8. Boye Mafe, Minnesota
SackSEER projection: 19.5 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 32
Similar historical prospects: Cliff Avril, Chandler Jones

Overall, Mafe performed better than any prospect in this draft in the "explosion" drills. Mafe recorded a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, a 38-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 5-inch broad jump -- which are all great numbers. However, he fared less well on the agility drills, and his 3-cone time of 7.24 seconds was much slower than you would expect for an edge rusher who can run a sub-4.6 40.

Mafe's projection also suffers a bit from lack of production. Mafe recorded only three passes defensed in 31 games, which translates into a below-average passes defensed rate. His sack numbers were just slightly above average for a drafted edge rusher -- he recorded seven sacks in 12 games in 2021 and 4.5 sacks in six games in 2020.

Like many edge rushers in this draft, Mafe's projection suggests some flaws, but his strong workout numbers suggest that he could have a tantalizing upside.


POTENTIAL SLEEPER

Sam Williams, Ole Miss
SackSEER projection: 12.1 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 136
Similar historical prospects: Maxx Crosby, Mark Anderson

This year, SackSEER might differ slightly with the conventional wisdom as to whether player X should be ranked over player Y but agrees with the general area where draftniks rate each edge rusher. The biggest exception, however, is Sam Williams, and the closer you look at his numbers, the more you wonder why he is flying under the radar.

Williams has a profile that reads like a high pick. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46 seconds at 261 pounds. His vertical leap was a bit disappointing at 32.5 inches, but that sticks out because he performed a 12-foot, 3-inch broad jump, which is very good. He rounded out his combine performance with a 7.03-second 3-cone at his pro day, suggesting that he has good lateral movement to go with his explosion.

Williams also had 12.5 sacks in 13 games on an SEC team last season. His production was just OK before last year. Overall, his production stacks up just fine against the other edge rushers available. Although it is a good draft for edge rushers generally, this year's class is a bit weak in sack rate. Williams' career sack rate is no worse than that of Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson, Jermaine Johnson and many other highly rated prospects. Williams' worst metric is his passes defensed, but his workout numbers make up for it.

The quintessential SackSEER sleeper is a consistently productive small-school edge rusher with lots of passes defensed. Historically, NFL teams tend to underrate productive edge rushers from small schools, overrate unproductive edge rushers from large programs, and completely ignore pass defensed rate. Interestingly, Williams checks none of those boxes, and instead fits the profile of a player who would typically command a high pick. However, for some reason, he seems to be slotted in the fourth round.

[Couch-Potato]

NFLDraftBuzz DL Ranking & Athletism Chart: https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/DL/2/2022

Provides an athletic chart for the top DL and DE if you scroll to the bottom.

The chart makes Boy Mafe, Ojabo, and Sanders look like steals.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

ESPN's SackSEER Algo Projects the Top NFL Edge Rushers from the 2022 Draft Class:

Spoiler!

1. Travon Walker, Georgia
SackSEER projection: 27.2 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 8
Similar historical prospects: Ezekiel Ansah, Brian Orakpo

Walker's draft stock has risen in recent weeks, and in SackSEER he manages to edge Hutchinson and Thibodeaux by a small margin.

Walker's best SackSEER metrics come from his terrific combine. His workout numbers ranged from good to fantastic. His 4.51-second 40-yard dash was great, especially for a 272-pound player. His 6.89-second 3-cone drill is in the top 10% of times by drafted edge rushers. His 35.5-inch vertical leap and 10-foot, 3-inch broad jump were also good.

Of course, what drags him down a bit -- and why many NFL fans are likely skeptical of his high draft position -- is his lack of college production. Walker had only 9.5 sacks in three college seasons. Is Walker another workout warrior whose lack of college production foreshadows a disappointing NFL career? Don't be so sure.

It may be counterintuitive, but workout scores are a more significant indicator of NFL success than college sack rate. Of course, you would prefer a prospect who had both production and strong workouts, but historically, if you had to choose, you would be better-off with the workout warrior than the productive player with bad workouts.

In college, players such as Ezekiel Ansah and Clay Matthews had even fewer career sacks than Walker, and both turned out to be successful NFL players. Meanwhile, Jarvis Jones and Calvin Pace -- strong college performers with poor workout numbers -- had only a limited impact in the NFL.

Walker is a strong prospect. However, like the other members of this year's big three, he is not a "generational" prospect, and his projection is weaker than the projection for recent top edge rusher prospects such as Myles Garrett and Chase Young.


2. Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
SackSEER projection: 26.9 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 1
Similar historical prospects: Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith

Hutchinson is a prospect that SackSEER has difficulty figuring out. On the one hand, Hutchinson was terrific as a senior, recording 14 sacks in 14 games. However, SackSEER is normally skeptical of a prospect with only one good season, especially when that season was the player's senior season.

In Hutchinson's case, of course, that gloss would be totally unfair. He did not have a true junior year, as he only played two games in Michigan's COVID-shortened season. You really would have liked to see what Hutchinson could have done as a junior. To his credit, he finished with a strong passes defensed rate, which does portend professional success.

Hutchinson's workouts were similarly mixed. His 6.73-second 3-cone drill was terrific -- it is better than the times of all but three edge rushers drafted since 1998. His explosion drills, however, were just average.

It all adds up to a projection that is certainly positive -- there is more to like than not to like with Hutchinson. However, there are some weaknesses in his projection, which means that Hutchinson is a very good prospect rather than a great one.

The highlights that will make everyone want to draft DE Aidan HutchinsonCheck out NFL draft prospect Aidan Hutchinson's relentless moments at Michigan as a defensive end.


3. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
SackSEER projection: 26.6 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 7
Similar historical prospects: Brian Burns, Ryan Kerrigan

Thibodeaux has great physical traits, but his pre-draft workouts did not quite match his reputation. He had a great 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the combine. However, he reserved the other workout drills for his pro day, and those numbers were less impressive. His 9-foot, 11-inch broad jump was shorter than what you would expect from a player with a similar 40, and Thibodeaux did not perform a vertical leap. Thibodeaux also ran the 3-cone in 7.32 seconds, which is much, much slower than one would expect from a player with his straight-line speed.

Again, Thibodeaux's workouts were good, but they were far worse than those of other combine busters of drafts past, such as Von Miller and Khalil Mack.

To his credit, similar prospects whose physical traits were hyped but who disappointed in actual workouts -- namely, Jason Pierre-Paul and Carlos Dunlap, whose workouts were far worse than Thibodeaux's -- ultimately had NFL careers more consistent with their hype than their workout numbers. Thibodeaux could certainly follow a similar path, and he might just be one of those unusual prospects whose athletic ability just does not translate into combine drills.

Thibodeaux's production paints a similarly uncertain picture. He had 19 sacks in 30 games. That is much better than average, but falls behind some of the great prospects like Terrell Suggs and Julius Peppers.

Thibodeaux is an excellent prospect with a lot to his credit, and he is certainly worthy of a first-round pick. However, he is not quite a "can't-miss" prospect, and no result -- whether it be future star or bust -- should be surprising.


4. George Karlaftis, Purdue
SackSEER projection: 25.4 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 24
Similar historical prospects: T.J. Watt, Justin Smith

Karlaftis has a strong projection and is an interesting prospect because he has unusual "splits" in his SackSEER numbers. First, Karlaftis performed very well in the two jump drills, recording a 38-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump. Typically, a player who performs well on the jumps also runs a quick 40-yard dash. However, Karlaftis did not. He ran a 4.78-second 40-yard dash, which is below average.

A similar split occurs with Karlaftis' production. Typically, edge rushers become more productive as they advance in college, which is why SackSEER is more impressed with a 10-sack junior season than a 10-sack senior one. However, Karlaftis arguably performed best as a freshman. He recorded 7.5 sacks in 12 games as a freshman while recording only 4.5 sacks in 12 games as a junior. Karlaftis, however, did record four passes defensed as a senior, and his projection benefits from a strong passes defensed rate overall.

Karlaftis, in many ways, is the perfect edge rusher for this draft, which has lots of potential but also includes a fair share of question marks.


5. David Ojabo, Michigan
SackSEER projection: 25.1 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 30
Similar historical prospects: Will Smith, Harold Landry III

Ojabo is an intriguing prospect with a lot to his credit, but unfortunately he tore his Achilles tendon during Michigan's pro day.

Ojabo showed great explosion at the NFL combine, recording a 4.55-second 40-yard dash, a 35-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 2-inch broad jump. Ojabo loses some points because he did not have a 3-cone time and his time in the short shuttle -- a relatively slow 4.55 seconds -- implies that his 3-cone would have been much worse than his explosion numbers suggest.

Ojabo was also extremely productive early in his career, a good sign for success. He had 11 sacks in 13 games when just a sophomore at Michigan. However, early production is not a guarantee of professional success, as there have been prospects such as George Selvie who put up strong sack numbers as sophomores and then faded over their final two years. A skeptic might also suggest that Ojabo benefited tremendously from having possible first overall pick Hutchinson drawing attention on the other side. That said, Ojabo also made a few plays other than sacks and finished with a good passes defensed rate.

Ojabo's injury makes his likely draft position highly uncertain. A team willing to wait a year for Ojabo to recover could end up getting great value if he turns out to be as good as some of his SackSEER numbers suggest.


6. Jermaine Johnson II, Florida State
SackSEER projection: 23.7 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 10
Similar historical prospects: Bradley Chubb, Kamerion Wimbley

Johnson is a similar prospect to Walker. His combine was excellent, although not quite as good as Walker's. Johnson ran a quick 4.58-second 40-yard dash and had a great broad jump at 10 feet, 5 inches. Johnson did disappoint a bit at the vertical leap, gaining only 32 inches.

Check out our NFL Draft Day Predictor
ESPN Sports Analytics' new Draft Day Predictor tool uses various factors to project the most likely picks at each first-round draft slot, estimated ranges of where top prospects could fall and more.

The biggest difference between Walker and Johnson is that Johnson did not run the 3-cone. Walker had an extremely quick 6.89-second 3-cone. SackSEER thinks that Johnson's 3-cone would have been approximately 7.17 seconds based on Johnson's other drills.

Johnson was more productive than Walker, notching 11.5 sacks as a senior and recording a slightly better passes defensed rate. However, because workouts are a stronger indicator of edge rusher success than sack production, Walker's workouts put him on top. Overall, despite being SackSEER's sixth-ranked prospect, Johnson is fewer than four sacks away from Walker, SackSEER's top-rated prospect.

Johnson's proximity to Walker demonstrates just how closely SackSEER rates the top edge rushers in this year's draft, and how a smart team might be able to snag a promising player at virtually any point in the first round.


7. Drake Jackson, USC
SackSEER projection: 20.9 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 61
Similar historical prospects: Jerry Hughes, Rashan Gary

Jackson is a bit unusual in that he performed every combine drill except for the 40-yard dash. That said, Jackson was excellent in the drills that he did perform in pre-draft workouts. He notched a 36.5-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 7-inch broad jump at the combine and then a 7.09-second 3-cone at his pro day. Jackson had very consistent production at USC, recording nearly the same sack total in each of his three seasons -- approximately one sack every two games. He also finished with four PBUs, which gives him a better-than-average passes defensed rate.

Overall, Jackson is a solid prospect and could offer great value where he is currently rated, which is somewhere in the second round -- and his SackSEER numbers are not far off from those of the top prospects. Indeed, if you did not adjust for expected draft position, Jackson's projection would be comparable to that of the big three.

Drake Jackson's NFL draft profileCheck out the best highlights that contributed to a stellar college career for USC's Drake Jackson.


8. Boye Mafe, Minnesota
SackSEER projection: 19.5 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 32
Similar historical prospects: Cliff Avril, Chandler Jones

Overall, Mafe performed better than any prospect in this draft in the "explosion" drills. Mafe recorded a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, a 38-inch vertical leap and a 10-foot, 5-inch broad jump -- which are all great numbers. However, he fared less well on the agility drills, and his 3-cone time of 7.24 seconds was much slower than you would expect for an edge rusher who can run a sub-4.6 40.

Mafe's projection also suffers a bit from lack of production. Mafe recorded only three passes defensed in 31 games, which translates into a below-average passes defensed rate. His sack numbers were just slightly above average for a drafted edge rusher -- he recorded seven sacks in 12 games in 2021 and 4.5 sacks in six games in 2020.

Like many edge rushers in this draft, Mafe's projection suggests some flaws, but his strong workout numbers suggest that he could have a tantalizing upside.


POTENTIAL SLEEPER

Sam Williams, Ole Miss
SackSEER projection: 12.1 sacks through fifth NFL season
Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 136
Similar historical prospects: Maxx Crosby, Mark Anderson

This year, SackSEER might differ slightly with the conventional wisdom as to whether player X should be ranked over player Y but agrees with the general area where draftniks rate each edge rusher. The biggest exception, however, is Sam Williams, and the closer you look at his numbers, the more you wonder why he is flying under the radar.

Williams has a profile that reads like a high pick. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46 seconds at 261 pounds. His vertical leap was a bit disappointing at 32.5 inches, but that sticks out because he performed a 12-foot, 3-inch broad jump, which is very good. He rounded out his combine performance with a 7.03-second 3-cone at his pro day, suggesting that he has good lateral movement to go with his explosion.

Williams also had 12.5 sacks in 13 games on an SEC team last season. His production was just OK before last year. Overall, his production stacks up just fine against the other edge rushers available. Although it is a good draft for edge rushers generally, this year's class is a bit weak in sack rate. Williams' career sack rate is no worse than that of Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson, Jermaine Johnson and many other highly rated prospects. Williams' worst metric is his passes defensed, but his workout numbers make up for it.

The quintessential SackSEER sleeper is a consistently productive small-school edge rusher with lots of passes defensed. Historically, NFL teams tend to underrate productive edge rushers from small schools, overrate unproductive edge rushers from large programs, and completely ignore pass defensed rate. Interestingly, Williams checks none of those boxes, and instead fits the profile of a player who would typically command a high pick. However, for some reason, he seems to be slotted in the fourth round.

Basically, I have no idea wtf SackSEER is but it sounds like some feeble attempt to project sacks based on a metric similar to RAS...

But then, they go and call Williams a "sleeper" despite a projection of only 12 sacks over his first 5 years. WTF?

Sounds like another ESPN useless algorithm based on arbitrary bullshit, kind of like QBR.

[O.city]

Millers latest mock has the chiefs going hill and Watson with karlaftis going 32

No way that happens

[Couch-Potato]

PFF Rankings:

Spoiler!

1. AIDAN HUTCHINSON, MICHIGAN
BIG BOARD RANK: 1
The highest-graded edge defender in college football, Hutchinson has multiple ways to win with his blend of quicks and power. He’s a complete edge defender who excels against both the run and the pass.

2. KAYVON THIBODEAUX, OREGON
BIG BOARD RANK: 4
Thibodeaux has an elite first step combined with an ideal frame for the position. While he lacks refinement, that combination still led to a 91.5 PFF pass-rushing grade in 2021.

3. GEORGE KARLAFTIS, PURDUE
BIG BOARD RANK: 10
Karlaftis is a versatile iron man who can do almost anything a team could ask of him. He played at least 49 snaps in all but one game this past season and finished with a 90.6 PFF pass-rushing grade.

4. TRAVON WALKER, GEORGIA
BIG BOARD RANK: 14
Walker is an elite physical specimen for a 6-foot-5, 275-pounder who even dropped into coverage this season and managed a pass breakup. He's still figuring out how to rush the passer, but you can't teach what he has.

5. DAVID OJABO, MICHIGAN
BIG BOARD RANK: 24
Ojabo had played only 26 career snaps before 2021, but he made his presence felt in a big way this season, earning an 86.9 pass-rushing grade on 300 pass-rushing snaps. Given his physical tools, the Michigan product is still only scratching the surface of his potential.

6. JERMAINE JOHNSON, FLORIDA STATE
BIG BOARD RANK: 26
Due to how well Johnson performed at the Senior Bowl, he's unlikely to be a non-factor in the league. Moreover, he's one of the best edge-setters in the class with 23 run stops and 14 sacks in 2021.

7. BOYE MAFE, MINNESOTA
BIG BOARD RANK: 34
Mafe was a massive riser after he earned the highest pass-rushing grade among edge defenders during the Senior Bowl practices. He's an ascending player who possesses one of the best get-offs in the class.

8. NIK BONITTO, OKLAHOMA
BIG BOARD RANK: 37
Bonitto may be a designated pass-rusher at the NFL level, but he'll be a weapon in that regard from Day 1. He's been the most productive pass-rusher on a per-snap basis over the past two seasons, earning a 93.6 pass-rushing grade in 2020 and a 92.5 pass-rush grade in 2021.

9. ARNOLD EBEKETIE, PENN STATE
BIG BOARD RANK: 41
Ebiketie transferred from Temple to Penn State and proved his 2020 production was no fluke. He beat up on quality tackles en route to a 90.5 pass-rushing grade and 52 pressures.

10. KINGSLEY ENAGBARE, SOUTH CAROLINA
BIG BOARD RANK: 45
Enagbare has been one of the highest-graded pass-rushers in the country over the past two seasons, recording an 89.2 pass-rushing grade in 2020 and a 92.5 in 2021. While he's not the kind of athlete who hears his name called early, Enagbare has the violent hands to be productive in the NFL.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Basically, I have no idea wtf SackSEER is but it sounds like some feeble attempt to project sacks based on a metric similar to RAS...

But then, they go and call Williams a "sleeper" despite a projection of only 12 sacks over his first 5 years. WTF?

Sounds like another ESPN useless algorithm based on arbitrary bullshit, kind of like QBR.

SackSEER Intro

One tool that could potentially help answer that question is SackSEER, Football Outsiders' system for projecting college edge rushers. SackSEER uses pre-draft workout data along with college statistics to project the NFL pass-rushing prospects of defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers.

SackSEER agrees with the conventional wisdom that this is a generally strong and deep draft for edge rushers. That said, contrary to some draft hype, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty as to just who is most likely to succeed.

In SackSEER, Hutchinson, Thibodeaux and Walker are all effectively tied -- with only a small fraction of a sack separating their projections. Check out more detail on how SackSEER works here.

Below, we take a look at SackSEER's top prospects in the 2022 NFL draft, along with some similar prospects from previous drafts.


Methodology

SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998 through 2019, and measures the following:

The edge rusher's projected draft position. Specifically, the rankings from ESPN's Scouts Inc.;

An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;

The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill;

A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college;

The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Ebeketie is so underrated

Career pass-rush win rates on 3rd-and-4-plus, per @PFF:

Arnold Ebiketie (31%)

Kingsley Enagbare (27%)
Boye Mafe (26%)
Kayvon Thibodeaux (25%)
Aidan Hutchinson (24%)
George Karlaftis (21%)
Drake Jackson (20%)

Josh Paschal (18%)
Jermaine Johnson (17%)

Travon Walker (11%)

— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) April 16, 2022

I actually think it's Enagbare that's being underrated.

[The Franchise]

1. Aidan Hutchinson | 6065/268 | Michigan

DOB: 08.09.00

RAS: 9.88

PFF grade: 1

PFF pass rush: 2

PFF run D: 1

PFF tackling: 2

Hutchinson returned from a broken leg that limited him to three games in 2020 to produce one of the great edge-rushing seasons in modern history. He posted 14 sacks, 16.5 TFL and two forced fumbles in 14 games en route to first-team All-American honors and a No. 2 finish in the Heisman. He was named Big Ten MVP and the winner of the Lott, Lombardi and Hendricks awards.

In contrast to Kayvon Thibodeaux, who opted out of most NFL Combine testing, Hutchinson was resolute that he would test and did. The weight room maniac put on a show, posting a size-adjusted 98th-percentile RAS athletic composite. Hutchinson ran a 70th-percentile 4.74 forty, posted an 80th-percentile 36” vertical, and dazzled during agility testing, posting a 94th-percentile shuttle and 99th-percentile 3-cone (No. 4 among drafted edge rushers since 1998).

Per the website MockDraftable, Hutchinson’s second-closest athletic comparison is Joey Bosa (the closest is Sam Hubbard). Hutchinson resembles Bosa on the gridiron as well. Deadly combination of size, strength, explosion and agility. Shoots off the ball like he’s late for a flight, gets on top of tackles in an instant, and throws the kitchen sink at them.

Deepest grab-bag of pass-rushing moves in the class. Combination hand-thrower like a boxer. Dealing with his speed and get-off is one thing. But stopping Hutchinson’s initial plan – or feigned initial plan – is only the beginning. Hutchinson’s counter moves should be illegal – his close-quarters agility and body control free him from the deepest of hooks. Hutchinson is a single-minded, Terminator-like pursuer. He arrives at the ball like a sock full of quarters and never misses.

Hutchinson is a fabulous pass-rusher, but he doesn’t sacrifice run defense for it. Last year, amongst this edge-rushing class, he finished No. 1 in PFF-graded run defense and No. 2 in PFF tackling grade. There aren’t many weaknesses to speak of in Hutchinson’s profile, only nitpicks – his arms are of average length, and he might be close to maxed-out.

But what he is right this second is special in and of itself. I spoke with a Big 10 coach who told me: “I’ve coached [players] that have played against both Bosa’s, Chase Young, Rashan Gary, Kwity Paye, and others… Hutchinson as a senior was in my opinion far better than all of them.”

Hutchinson is the complete package, and the safest prospect in this class. He has made it extremely difficult to pass on him at the top of the board. What question can you possibly have? Historical season, historical athletic profile, immortal motor, and a mythical work ethic.

Comp: Joey Bosa

2. Kayvon Thibodeaux | 6040 /256 | Oregon

DOB: 12.15.00

RAS: 9.62

PFF grade: 13

PFF pass rush: 5

PFF run D: 16

PFF tackling: 58

Once the presumed No. 1 overall pick, Thibodeaux’s pre-draft process has been mired with questions about his commitment, personality, and decision to sit out NFL Combine testing after running the 40-yard dash. I’ve yet to speak to anyone who can independently corroborate the criticisms in the media. So let’s focus on his on-field profile.

Thibodeaux posted a 96th-percentile size-adjusted RAS athletic composite after finishing out his testing at Oregon’s pro day. The former No. 1 overall recruit added a 79th-percentile shuttle and an 81st-percentile broad jump to his 98th-percentile 4.58 forty.

Thibodeaux is eerily-reminiscent of Jadeveon Clowney coming out of South Carolina. Interestingly, when asked at the NFL Combine which player he most resembled, Thibodeaux said “I’m Jadeveon Clowney 2.0.” Thibodeaux and Clowney share out-of-this-world speed off the blocks, first steps that offensive tackles see in their nightmares.

At the top of his rush, Thibodeaux could work on his consistency. There are stretches where he buttresses that killer first-step with a combination of moves to set up his opponent, and other stretches where he appears to be leaning too heavily on speed-to-power mayhem. Thibodeaux efficiently cuts the outside corner and closes quickly, with a ransacking ethos on the prowl.

He’s a strong run defender who holds his ground, sheds, and disrupts. Thibodeaux brings nuclear-fusion power to collisions when he arrives, but he could stand to be more disciplined on approach, as he too often flies in high and hot, missing golden opportunities.

Thibodeaux was highly-productive on campus (35.5 TFL over 21 starts and 32 appearances) and his game translates smoothly to the next level. He’s a top-3 overall talent in the class.

Comp: Jadeveon Clowney

3. Travon Walker | 6050/272 | Georgia

DOB: 12.18.00

RAS: 9.99

PFF grade: 54

PFF pass rush: 73

PFF run D: 29

PFF tackling: 47

Walker came into the draft process under-the-radar because of the way he was used at Georgia. The Bulldogs had an embarrassment of defensive line riches while he was on campus – one of the reasons Jermaine Johnson II transferred to FSU – and used Walker as part of a rotation, limiting his snaps and moving him around the formation.

While Aidan Hutchinson played 794 snaps last season and 746 in 2019 (his other fully-healthy season as a starter), Walker took a mere 990 snaps total over the last three years combined (596 during Georgia’s title run in 2021). As you know, this effected Walker’s counting numbers (9.5 career sacks, 13.0 career TFL).

But Walker also wasn’t dominant on a per-snap basis. Among 104 draft-eligible edge rushers in my database that had PFF grades last season, he ranked No. 73 in pass-rushing grade, and No. 54 in overall grade. He had the fewest pressures and hurries of any of my top-8 edge rushing prospects in this class.

Of course, he was playing less snaps than many of his contemporaries, and wasn’t allowed to consistently pin his ears back when he was on the field, sometimes asked to occupy offensive linemen to free blitzing linebackers. Heck, Georgia would sometimes drop him into coverage.

Walker has the athleticism for all of it. His NFL Combine showing put him in rarified historical air. He posted a 4.51 forty and 6.89 3-cone drill that were both in the 97th-percentile. His 9.99 RAS composite drew insane athletic comps. The closest to Walker in the RAS system: Myles Garrett, Jevon Kearse, Ezekiel Ansah and Shawne Merriman. Oofta!

In college, what Walker did consistently well was play the run – he’s a long, jacked-up athlete who lifts offensive linemen off the ground with his initial punch. A coordinated athlete with good body control, Walker keeps himself in every play and is very difficult for opponents to erase from a rep. He’s a greyhound in pursuit, with elite closing speed.

Walker locked himself into the top-10 with his athletic testing. I’m concerned about Walker’s stiffness around the edge, and I think it’s going to take time to teach him a full arsenal of pass-rushing moves to compliment his speed-to-power special sauce. But athleticism plays at this position and Walker has it in spades.

Comp: Arik Armstead

4. Jermaine Johnson II | 6045/260 | Florida State

DOB: 01.07.99

RAS: 9.23

PFF grade: 20

PFF pass rush: 39

PFF run D: 10

PFF tackling: 15

Relentless, clever, and stout. Ideal frame. One of the quickest get-offs in the class. Tough guy in run defense who stands up tackles, holds his ground, and mucks things up and funnels to teammates if he can’t make the play. Low-man-wins leverage practicioner who cuts a clean corner around the edge.

Warrior ethos on field. Pursues like a souped-up Zombie. Arrives with a thud and wraps up, rarely missing targets. Straight-line athlete who proved concept with 4.58 forty in pre-draft process. Business decision to duck the agility drills. When he doesn’t win with initial plan, Johnson can be neutralized. He added to his pass-rushing arsenal last year at FSU but has more room to grow.

His fastball piled up 12 sacks and 18 TFL at FSU last year, but Johnson will need to diversify his pass-rushing plan so NFL tackles can’t comfortably sit dead-red on the heat. Johnson profiles as an immediate starter. He’s going to be a really good run defender, and no worse than an average pass-rusher.

Comp: Whitney Mercilus

5. George Karlaftis | 6036/263 | Purdue

DOB: 04.03.01

RAS: 9.2

PFF grade: 9

PFF pass rush: 8

PFF run D: 21

PFF tackling: 90

Power end with a rocked-up frame. Provides a relentless brand of pass-rushing. He's an underrated stud of an athlete, a Bruce Feldman Freak Lister who was vaunted in the Purdue weight room. Karlaftis chose not to run the forty or do the 3-cone but posted a 9.2 RAS composite thanks to great jumps and a strong shuttle. Lauded for his work ethic. Gym rat.

Pass-rushing repertoire flowers off the power – offensive tackles respect that power so much that it opens counter possibilities. All-out effort every play. More quick than fast. Quarterbacks feel him rumbling downhill and unload in a way they aren’t able to with Hutchinson or Thibodeaux. Misses way too many tackles, this will be an area of developmental emphasis. Needs to play with more discipline against the run.

Aggressive mentality off the snap is great, but Karlaftis can have his momentum used against him, pushed upfield and out of the play with a pontoon-sized hole in his wake. Karlaftis’ power and relentlessness will play at the NFL, and he should get everything out of his physical ability. But he may never be an elite pass-rusher, and he needs to play with more discipline against the run.

Comp: Ryan Kerrigan

[The Franchise]

6. Arnold Ebiketie | 6026/247 | Penn State

RAS: 9.14

PFF grade: 8

PFF pass rush: 9

PFF run D: 13

PFF tackling: 32

Comp: Shaq Barrett

7. Boye Mafe | 6036/257 | Minnesota

DOB: 11.03.98

RAS: 9.91

PFF grade: 21

PFF pass rush: 22

PFF run D: 41

PFF tackling: 27

Comp: Kwity Paye

8. David Ojabo | 6040/252 | Michigan

DOB: 05.17.00

RAS: 9.4

PFF grade: 27

PFF pass rush: 17

PFF run D: 42

PFF tackling: 53

Comp: Brian Burns

9. Logan Hall | 6061/285 | Houston

RAS: 9.39

PFF grade: 15

PFF pass rush: 20

PFF run D: 15

PFF tackling: 4

Comp: Margus Hunt

10. Nik Bonitto | 6031/248 | Oklahoma

DOB: 09.26.99

RAS: 9.35

PFF grade: 2

PFF pass rush: 3

PFF run D: 28

PFF tackling: 24

Comp: Haason Reddick

11. Kingsley Enagbare | 6040 /271 | South Carolina

DOB: 01.18.00

RAS: 6.17

PFF grade: 7

PFF pass rush: 4

PFF run D: 51

PFF tackling: 31

Comp: Brian Orakpo

12. Josh Paschal | 6025/270 | Kentucky

RAS: 9.7

PFF grade: 4

PFF pass rush: 29

PFF run D: 2

PFF tackling: 12

Comp: John Franklin-Myers

13. Drake Jackson | 6025/273 | USC

DOB: 04.12.01

RAS: 8.6

PFF grade: 18

PFF pass rush: 15

PFF run D: 40

PFF tackling: 38

Comp: Shillique Calhoun

14. Cameron Thomas | 6041/267 | San Diego State

DOB: 01.07.00

RAS: N/A

PFF grade: 6

PFF pass rush: 12

PFF run D: 5

PFF tackling: 29

Comp: Carl Nassib

15. Deangelo Malone | 6032/239 | WKU

RAS: 9.04

PFF grade: 23

PFF pass rush: 33

PFF run D: 20

PFF tackling: 14

Comp: Tyus Bowser

16. Dominique Robinson | 6051/252 | Miami (OH)

RAS: 9.74

PFF grade: 61

PFF pass rush: 61

PFF run D: 64

PFF tackling: 40

Comp: Benson Mayowa

17. Sam Williams | 6035/258 | Mississippi

DOB: 03.03.99

RAS: 9.72

PFF grade: 29

PFF pass rush: 10

PFF run D: 66

PFF tackling: 48

Comp: Pernell McPhee

18. Amare Barno | 6045/247 | Virginia Tech

DOB: 04.26.99

RAS: 9.17

PFF grade: 47

PFF pass rush: 55

PFF run D: 36

PFF tackling: 59

Comp: Eli Harold

19. Myjai Sanders | 6052/247 | Cincinnati

DOB: 02.27.00

RAS: 8.73

PFF grade: 22

PFF pass rush: 16

PFF run D: 19

PFF tackling: 88

Comp: Ben Banogu

20. Isaiah Thomas | 6050/265 | Oklahoma

DOB: 12.03.98

RAS: 9.14

PFF grade: 32

PFF pass rush: 35

PFF run D: 46

PFF tackling: 93

Comp: Alex Okafor

[Chiefnj2]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blY3UByYBBE
Penn State Defense v. Ohio State Offense


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tGp2YaxKj8
Minnesota Defense v. Ohio State Offense

You can watch Ebiketie and Mafe against the same high ranked offense. IMHO, Ebiketie jumps out much more than Mafe.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blY3UByYBBE
Penn State Defense v. Ohio State Offense


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tGp2YaxKj8
Minnesota Defense v. Ohio State Offense

You can watch Ebiketie and Mafe against the same high ranked offense. IMHO, Ebiketie jumps out much more than Mafe.

And Mafe jumped out much more than Ebiketie against the best of the best at the Senior Bowl…

[Chris Meck]

I had Myjai Sanders off of my list from the combine after weighing in at 228 pounds.

He'd been really sick I guess prior and lost a bunch of weight.

he's back up around 250, and with that length, I'd put him back on the list as a second round possibility.

[RunKC]

Was just listening to Dusty and Danny on Sirius radio and they said they’re hearing there will be a massive run on DL from the beginning all the way through the end of the 2nd rd. Specifically mentioned teams with that need will most likely double dip.

Not that it’s a surprise but I think it’s very certain we take a DT and DE with 2 of our first 4 picks.

Would be sweet to get a Devonte Wyatt or Travis Jones then at 50 get Sam Williams or Ebeketie

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Was just listening to Dusty and Danny on Sirius radio and they said they’re hearing there will be a massive run on DL from the beginning all the way through the end of the 2nd rd. Specifically mentioned teams with that need will most likely double dip.

Not that it’s a surprise but I think it’s very certain we take a DT and DE with 2 of our first 4 picks.

Would be sweet to get a Devonte Wyatt or Travis Jones then at 50 get Sam Williams or Ebeketie

I think it’s much more likely that they take two DEs than a DE and DT.