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Old 04-26-2021, 05:37 AM  
Dante84 Dante84 is offline
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Falcons taking calls on Julio Jones
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A hamstring injury limited Jones to just nine games last season, though he still put up strong numbers when he was on the field. He caught 51 passes for 771 yards and three scores as the Falcons finished the year 4-12. From 2014-19, Jones missed only four games and averaged 104 catches and 1,564 yards per season. SI Link.







From Peter King:
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Surprises? Keep an eye on Atlanta. I can’t predict any bombshells. But a few things would not surprise me. Most notably, the Falcons putting the framework of a trade together for star wideout Julio Jones, and making the trade effective June 2. That way, Atlanta could split Jones’ cap charge between 2021 and 2022 instead of getting bashed with it all this year. So if such a trade happens, I expect it could involve a future pick or picks, nothing this year. (A future second-round pick as compensation seems fair to me.) Because such a trade wouldn’t be official till June, no picks in this draft could be involved. As for the interested team or teams, I would guess Las Vegas; Jon Gruden couldn’t resist Antonio Brown, and I doubt he could resist Julio Jones. New England too, and a couple of teams with clear receiver needs—Tennessee and Baltimore.

Now, the Falcons don’t really want to trade Julio Jones. He’s a franchise legend. But he’s 32, entering his 11th season, coming off a banged-up year with seven games missed due to injury, and the Falcons are in cap jail. If they could off-load his money and cushion it by splitting it between this year ($7.75 million) and next ($15.5 million), Atlanta’s cap charge on Jones this year goes down by a tad more than $15 million.

One final note here, to be very clear: I am not reporting the Falcons will trade Jones, or will probably trade Jones. I am saying it would not surprise me if it happened.
Last edited by Dante84; 04-26-2021 at 12:24 PM..
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:46 AM   #76
CoMoChief CoMoChief is offline
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Chiefs would have a Madden Ultimate Team in real life on offense if Jones was traded to KC.

ATL should do Jones a solid and trade him to us....his career has been a total waste on that franchise...a shame.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:47 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Dante84 View Post
The recency bias (1 injured year) + Chiefs fans' PTSD of injured players (Schwartz, Watkins, Berry, etc..) is really clouding some judgement in here, I think.

Is there a valid reason for concern with him coming off a hamstring injury at age 32? Sure, so evaluate and don't get over your skis on trade compensation. Brett won't do that, so I'm not worried.

Is he Sammy Watkins, or even in the same realm? No way, man.
It's not recency bias.

Jones actually missed more games in 2013 than he did last year. He's actually had hamstring, foot, and ankle issues multiple times over his career.

I don't know how much stock you put into this type of analysis but I've found Sports Injury Predictor to be reasonably reliable at predicting injury outcomes for players. They nailed the results of the Dee Ford trade to SF.

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/pl...lio-jones/4692

They have Julio Jones with a 94% of missing a game due to injury and the over/under at 2.4 games. He's considered a "high risk" player.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:48 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
The difference NOW is that Jones plays through injuries and Watkins doesn't.

That doesn't change the fact that Jones is oft-injured because he absolutely is. And while the willingness to play through them may always be there, there will come a time when Jone's 30+ body simply won't be able to do that anymore. Those nagging injuries will eventually become issues that result in lost playing time, as we saw last year. These are the types of guys we should be avoiding, not inviting.
I agree, and will defer to Veach and the Chiefs' medical staff on that determination.

We are in the unique position of being set up to win now AND in the future, which is pretty rare. Each year we'll have to play a delicate game of calculated risks to ensure that we did enough to get to the mountain-top without mortgaging our future ability to sustain.

This is one of those moves that, if they're comfortable, could be slam dunk for '21 & '22 SB runs.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:50 AM   #79
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I'd really rather restock the position in the draft, and let those players grow into roles.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:50 AM   #80
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I think a 2022 3rd rounder is the most I can give for him given the cap, age, injuries.

And that’s IF you don’t draft a WR in R2.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:51 AM   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
It's not recency bias.

Jones actually missed more games in 2013 than he did last year. He's actually had hamstring, foot, and ankle issues multiple times over his career.

I don't know how much stock you put into this type of analysis but I've found Sports Injury Predictor to be reasonably reliable at predicting injury outcomes for players. They nailed the results of the Dee Ford trade to SF.

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/pl...lio-jones/4692

They have Julio Jones with a 94% of missing a game due to injury and the over/under at 2.4 games. He's considered a "high risk" player.
Very cool, I'll check that site out. And you make good points - there's absolutely risk here.

Just a matter of the price of said risk. I think we're in a position to spend a 2nd rounder (I guess next year is the only option, based on his June contract date), and shoulder his contract, for Julio mf'n Jones.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:54 AM   #82
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:54 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
I think a 2022 3rd rounder is the most I can give for him given the cap, age, injuries.

And that’s IF you don’t draft a WR in R2.
I'd go as high as a 2022 2nd, if they're comfortable with his health.
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:59 AM   #84
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I look at it this way:

The reason we lost the SB was the offensive line. Both OT's were injured, and with both being over 30 with back problems it made sense to move on.

We haven't had peak Sammy since SB 54. We still won 16 games without him.

We fixed the offensive line, and it looks MUCH more talented and MUCH deeper than last season, so it shouldn't be a weakness any longer. (I'd argue that it's been mediocre since Morse started missing time.)

We've got about 3 more seasons I think of Hill and Kelce at combined peak powers.

The defense got a lot better with Reed. Gay, Sneed are ascending.

I'm less worried about 2021 than 2022 and 2023.

Give me a Dyami Brown or Amon-Ra St. Brown, and start restocking the weaponry. They'll get some packages and work in this season, but really show out in '22 and '23.
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Old 04-26-2021, 11:00 AM   #85
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51 passes in 7 games = 7.28 catches/game = IF HEALTHY, 117 catches/16 games
771 yards in 7 games = 110 yards/game = IF HEALTHY, 1,760 yards/16 games
3 TD's in 7 games = .42 TD's/game = IF HEALTHY, 6.72 TD's/16 games.

Would he play 16 games? That's the whole entire question.

But I wouldn't say he's washed.

Put him in this offense though, even as a decoy, the impact he would have on the offense and the pressure it would put on a defense would be insane.

Just a matter of if it's worth whatever the price is.
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Old 04-26-2021, 11:16 AM   #86
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We would need to find 5M in space and money for our draft class...
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Old 04-26-2021, 11:20 AM   #87
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We would need to find 5M in space and money for our draft class...
$15M guaranteed right away? No thanks.
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Old 04-26-2021, 11:24 AM   #88
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Old 04-26-2021, 11:26 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
$15M guaranteed right away? No thanks.
In this scenario, wouldn't we prefer it to be a front-loaded deal?

Also, I'm assuming we get HB's deal done before the season, so that could free up some cap.

Again, all hypotheticals.
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Old 04-26-2021, 11:28 AM   #90
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