***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

It seems like the reported rates are higher with epidemics at the beginning, because most infections go unreported and are never known.

Yes, I know. I actually have the actual numbers from earlier. I just wanted to see if he was using math, or a gut feel.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

You weren't referring to ROK. You said it's 2.75% here and dropping.

As more cases are confirmed and the rate of people dying from will decrease. This is based off the CDC and WHO estimates.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, I know. I actually have the actual numbers from earlier. I just wanted to see if he was using math, or a gut feel.

it's math, do you not know how to do percentages?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

1,050 cases now. Pretty good jump in a day

How many deaths so far?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

As more cases are confirmed and the rate of people dying from will decrease. This is based off the CDC and WHO estimates.

Again, you said dropping. That's present, not future.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

it's math, do you not know how to do percentages?

Yes, it is math. And to do math, you need numbers. What numbers are you using?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

How many deaths so far?

29

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

Again, you said dropping. That's present, not future.

Correct Donger,

Keep up......... Yesterday there was less confirmed cases than today. But the death total didn't rise as fast as confirmed cases. Thus the percentage when it comes to mortality rate drops.

Are you unaware of how it works?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Correct Donger,

Keep up......... Yesterday there was less confirmed cases than today. But the death total didn't rise as fast as confirmed cases. Thus the percentage when it comes to mortality rate drops.

Are you unaware of how it works?

Yes, I am. I presume that you have now looked at the numbers.

[suzzer99]

Deathrate in the countries that haven't been hit hard yet like Spain and Germany is meaningless. It usually takes 6-8 weeks from contraction to death.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, I am. I presume that you have now looked at the numbers.

Holy shit........ Donger I need some crayons for you.

If yesterday there was 26 Deaths and 800 Confirmed the mortality rate would be 3.25%

Today there is 29 deaths and 1050 confirmed giving you a mortality rate of 2.76%

Hence its dropping.............

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Deathrate in the countries that haven't been hit hard yet like Spain and Germany is meaningless. It usually takes 6-8 weeks from contraction to death.

South Korea .69%

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Donger

29

11 of the patients who died at Kirkland LifeCare before they could be taken to the hospital still haven't been tested. This could be happening in other places as well.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Holy shit........ Donger I need some crayons for you.

If yesterday there was 26 Deaths and 800 Confirmed the mortality rate would be 3.25%

Today there is 29 deaths and 1050 confirmed giving you a mortality rate of 2.76%

Hence its dropping.............

I fully understand the math. I was just wondering if you had actually run the numbers before you claimed it was dropping. It seems you have now. That's all.

It's still much higher than seasonal influenza.

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

South Korea .69%

Which is why I didn't mention them.

They're doing the exact opposite of us - massive testing, massive education effort. We're still sending mixed messages that it's contained or just like the flu. We're treating it like Italy did.