NFL playoff bracket predictions: Scores, Super Bowl pick
Bill Barnwell, ESPN Staff Writer
Jan 11, 2024, 06:35 AM ET
I'm doing something here that never, ever works, and that is predicting what will happen in the NFL playoff bracket by running through the entire thing. Yes: I'm picking winners for the six wild-card games, the four subsequent divisional-round contests, the two conference championships and then Super Bowl LVIII. That's 13 game previews, seven of which are for games that might never actually occur.
Will this be the actual bracket? No. Do not waste your time getting mad. If we treat my chances of getting each game right as a coin flip, the odds of me making 13 correct picks are 8,192-to-1. And if I get even one wrong in the early rounds, the seedings are thrown off, which would ruin the entire bracket I've predicted.
Instead, I hope you'll treat this as a thoughtful look into what might transpire if and when these teams do match up in the playoffs. I've done my best to break down how each team lines up against one another, what might represent obvious points of strength and weakness and what history tells us about their chances, including one matchup that just about everyone would expect to be a blowout.
I'll be up front: I made a preseason prediction on a Super Bowl matchup, and as I'm lucky enough to have both of those teams in relatively strong positions as we begin the postseason, I'm sticking with that prediction here. First, let's make it through the wild-card round before getting deeper into the postseason:
Spoiler!
NFC wild-card weekend
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox
Spread: DAL -7.5 (50.5)
On "Around the Horn" on Monday, ESPN's Ramona Shelbourne wondered whether the Eagles might have been laughing on the inside about losing out on the division title to the Cowboys. The 2-seed means at least one home game and avoiding the 49ers until the conference finals, but playing the Packers feels a lot more dangerous than playing the Buccaneers, given how Green Bay has won three straight to advance to the postseason.
As someone who had the Packers making it to the postseason back in September, I was hoping to see a little more from them during the regular season. Quarterback Jordan Love's development with one of the youngest receiving corps in league history has been a joy to watch, and they have managed to advance despite missing left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander and wideout Christian Watson for long stretches of the season.
With that being said, the defense is still a concern. Green Bay's 10th-ranked scoring defense is a product of playing a slow pace; it ranks 21st in expected points added (EPA) per snap allowed and 22nd in points allowed per drive. The Cowboys were the only team to run fewer drives on offense, in part because Dallas ran more plays per possession than any other team. Expect this one to be a game in which each team only gets eight or nine possessions.
As Underdog Fantasy's Hayden Winks mentioned on Twitter, the Packers are weak up the middle. Their pass defense ranked dead last in QBR allowed on throws between the numbers (88.2). Guess who slices teams up there? Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, whose 84.1 QBR on throws over the middle ranks fourth-best in the NFL. Only two teams allowed more yards per throw to receivers out of the slot than Green Bay, and white-hot receiver CeeDee Lamb will get plenty of opportunities there.
It's inevitable that the Cowboys will get pressure on Love. He's the fifth-best passer in the league by QBR under duress, but he and the Packers went 4-6 when opposing defense pressured him more than 25% of the time. The Cowboys hit that mark 14 times in 17 games. Love will make a big play or two, but the Cowboys will wear down the Packers and coordinator Joe Barry won't have answers for Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Packers 17
(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Detroit Lions
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: DET -3 (51.5)
The Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff bowl is full of storylines. In terms of how these two teams played, however, there wasn't much between them in the regular season. ESPN's Football Power Index has them neck and neck, with the Rams in seventh and the Lions in eighth. The Lions won two more games than the Rams, but they outperformed their point differential by two full wins. L.A. came in at 9.2 expected wins. Detroit is the better of these two teams, but when you consider how a young Rams team has improved dramatically as the season has gone along, the gap between them is smaller than you might think.
When the Lions have struggled this season, it's usually been due to turnovers; Goff & Co. have five games with at least three giveaways, tied for the third-most of any team. The Lions lost three of those five games. The Rams don't force many turnovers, though; they were one of just four teams to go all season without a three-takeaway game and finished 30th in total takeaways (15). Any team can have a random game where they fall on a bunch of fumbles, but the Rams don't appear to be ball hawks, which could be trouble for their defense.
The way to nullify Goff is with pressure, and with rookie tackle Kobie Turner breaking out during this 7-1 stretch to end the season, the Rams have ranked fifth in pressure rate over the second half of the season. The problem is the Lions are strong on the interior against the sort of defensive tackle stunts and twists L.A. likes to run to create opportunities for Turner and its non-Aaron Donald linemen. The weak link on the Detroit line now is actually left tackle Taylor Decker, whose struggles since midseason have been uncharacteristic. The Rams are willing to move around Donald to create matchup problems; expect them to line him up outside Decker and put three men over the right side of the line, creating a bind for center Frank Ragnow.
On the other hand, the way to slow down the Rams is to get pressure on Stafford, with Los Angeles falling from fourth to 19th in QBR when the pass rush gets home. The Lions have one impactful pass-rusher in Aidan Hutchinson and have blitzed at the league's eighth-highest rate to get extra bodies after the quarterback. Blitzes have been a problem for Stafford, who ranks 27th in QBR against the blitz this season; only Sam Howell, Bryce Young and Kenny Pickett have been worse. Stafford ranks No. 1 when teams don't blitz, so defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn needs to be willing to send extra rushers on Sunday, even if it means risking a big play behind.
The Rams were once a play-action heavy team under coach Sean McVay, but they've gotten away from that since acquiring Stafford. This would be a week to get back there, as the Lions rank 27th in QBR against play-action this season. The Rams are also a top-10 offense working out of quick game (getting the ball out under 2.5 seconds); the Lions rank 30th in QBR defending those situations. Being intentional about the passing game and the sorts of things McVay asks the Lions to try to defend here will be key.
In a close matchup, one mistake or blunder can decide things. The biggest gap here is on special teams, where the Rams ranked last in DVOA this season and cycled through kickers Brett Maher and Lucas Havrisik before returning to Maher last week. He missed four extra points last postseason and then failed one of his two tries in Week 18. Something like that could be the difference in pushing the game toward Detroit.
Prediction: Lions 30, Rams 26
(5) Philadelphia Eagles at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Spread: PHI -3 (43.5)
One team is obligated by the rules of the NFL to win this game. Neither side comes in looking great. The Eagles lost five of their last six games, were lucky to start the season 10-1, outscored their opponents by a grand total of five points and have their big three of quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all dealing with injuries.
Matt Patricia's defense has been a nightmare. The issues date back before the former Lions coach was promoted to defensive coordinator in December, of course, but the early returns have been brutal. With Nolan Smith shifting into an off-ball linebacker role at times, the Eagles' edge rushers haven't racked up a single sack over the past month. Philadelphia ranks 30th in pressure rate this season; I was one of the people expecting the team to decline because of the talent it lost on defense and the age of its cornerbacks, but I would never have guessed its front four would turn into a pumpkin.
The Eagles offense also doesn't match up well with Bucs coach Todd Bowles' specialty. The Bucs blitz at the league's third-highest rate, but the Philly offense doesn't have the range of built-in solutions for opposing pressures that other teams have. Most of their answers for the blitz seem to be Hurts accounting for rushers and winning in open space, but that hasn't been a great solution this season; he drops from ninth to 16th in QBR against extra rushers. He is also battling knee and finger injuries and might not have either of his top two wide receivers on the field.
When Philly beat Tampa in Week 3, it was through big games from Brown (nine catches for 131 yards) and D'Andre Swift (16 carries for 130 yards). If Bowles wants to take away Hurts' impact in the run game, he's going to have to find a solution. The Bucs were middle of the pack in success rate against the run but fifth in EPA per carry allowed this season; the Eagles need to rely on Swift and their still-excellent O-line for steady gains to control the clock, stay on schedule and keep their defense off the field.
On the other hand, the Bucs are coming off an ugly win over the Panthers, with a 9-0 victory saved by a DJ Chark fumble into the end zone and a penalty that wiped away a Raheem Blackshear score. Even worse, quarterback Baker Mayfield entered the game with a rib injury and spent most of it limping after a first-half sack; outside of a garbage-time outburst against the Saints in Week 17, he hasn't looked good in a couple of weeks.
In Week 3, the Eagles were able to control Mike Evans, who turned 10 targets into 60 yards and a score, without freeing up running back Rachaad White or receiver Chris Godwin for big gains. Eagles corner Darius Slay was targeted six times, but those plays produced three catches for 12 yards. Slay has been out for the past four games after undergoing knee surgery, but he's expected to return this weekend. If he's on the field and able to slow down Evans, that might be enough to swing an ugly game toward Philadelphia.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Buccaneers 16
AFC wild-card weekend
(7) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: BUF -10 (36.5)
This is an entirely different matchup without T.J. Watt, who's dealing with a knee injury. During his career, the Steelers are 1-10 without their star edge rusher, allowing more than 26 points per game. In terms of the strict on-/off-field splits, Pittsburgh has a 39.1 QBR allowed with Watt on the field and a 62.3 QBR allowed without him. The former mark would comfortably be the best in football over a full season since 2017. The latter would comfortably be the worst.
With Watt, this would be a fascinating matchup: A team that thrives almost entirely by winning the turnover battle up against a team that treats turnovers as the cost of doing Josh Allen business. The Bills quarterback could always turn the ball over three or four times without Watt and open up the door for the Steelers, but without their best pass-rusher and with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, it would be a surprise if this was close.
Prediction: Bills 31, Steelers 10
(6) Miami Dolphins at (3) Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Peacock
Spread: KC -4.5 (44.5)
The AFC wild-card matchups, unfortunately, are more about what-could-have-been than what-will-be. On a neutral field with everyone healthy and good weather, this would be a fascinating matchup. In addition to the Tyreek Hill revenge game scenario, we have what is arguably the league's two most fertile offensive minds going up against one another, while two defensive masterminds who approach attacking opposing offenses in entirely different ways try to stop them.
What we have instead is a game on a night in which the low in Kansas City is projected to fall to minus-5 degrees. I wouldn't dismiss the Dolphins' chances of winning in those conditions, but they have been broken by injuries. Vic Fangio's defense is down its top three edge rushers (Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel), one of its two starting linebackers (Jerome Baker) and one of its two cornerbacks (Xavien Howard). Wideout Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert have been out the past two weeks in losses that knocked the Dolphins out of the race for the top seed and the top of the division in a matter of seven days. I hope we get to see this matchup next postseason with more of Miami's stars present and available.
Prediction: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 13
(5) Cleveland Browns at (4) Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: CLE -2.5 (44.5)
Here's the fun AFC matchup of the opening round. On one side, we have the upstart Texans, who weren't supposed to be close to contending. They went 9-6 with prized rookie C.J. Stroud under center, adding a 10th win with former Browns backup Case Keenum. Stroud has been the league's best quarterback at protecting the football, posting an incredible 1.0% interception rate despite throwing some of the deepest average passes of any signal-caller.
And then, on the other side, we have their mirror image. The Browns are on the fourth of their five starting quarterbacks this season in grizzled veteran Joe Flacco, who was on the street for the first half of the season. He hands out interceptions like Werther's Originals and it doesn't seem to matter, because the Browns have forced 11 turnovers in his five starts.
These two teams faced earlier in December, but as Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski noted Tuesday, that was a different Texans team. Stroud was sidelined by a concussion, leaving the Texans with Keenum. Flacco threw two interceptions, but he picked apart the Houston defense, going 27-of-42 for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Cleveland barely ran the ball and didn't have a kicker with Dustin Hopkins going down injured in mid-game, but with Amari Cooper going for a career-high 265 yards, it didn't matter.
Cooper missed the following week's game with a heel injury before joining most of the meaningful Browns on the sideline in Week 18. Myles Garrett, the best player on the league's best defense and the likely Defensive Player of the Year, had just one sack over the final seven games of the season after suffering a shoulder injury.
The Browns are still excellent on that side of the ball, but they've been fueled more and more by their insatiable desire for turnovers. Before the Garrett injury, in looking at drives that ended in something besides a turnover, they allowed an average of 1.4 points per possession, the best mark in football. Since that injury, they are allowing an average of 1.9 points per possession when they don't produce a turnover, which is only good for 14th.
The Texans, notably, are one of the teams that have been better on non-turnover drives. Stroud & Co. could starve the Browns of the turnovers they need to survive Flacco's mistakes. The drop-off from Hopkins, who had been one of the NFL's three best kickers this season, to journeyman Riley Patterson won't help.
Prediction: Texans 21, Browns 17
NFC divisional round
(5) Philadelphia Eagles at (1) San Francisco 49ers
The last time we saw these two teams together was Week 13, when the Eagles entered the game at 10-1. In the third quarter, linebacker Dre Greenlaw got into a confrontation on the Eagles' sideline with head of security Dom DiSandro, with both ejected from the sidelines. The Eagles scored a touchdown on that drive, but they've been outscored 161-111 from that point forward while going 1-5. DiSandro was suspended from the sideline for the rest of the regular season; correlation isn't causation, but they might want to move "Big Dom" back to his old stomping grounds for the playoffs, if only to get some good vibes from the 10-1 days back in the mix.
Unfortunately, 30 or 40 Big Doms on the sideline might not help the Eagles here. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Brock Purdy were able to pick apart the Philly defense with motion before the snap, which shouldn't have been a surprise, as the Eagles rank last in QBR allowed against plays with pre-snap motion this season. Purdy ranks second in QBR on those same motion plays, and the 49ers average nearly 7.0 yards per play with some sort of motion component.
If anything, Shanahan might have trouble choosing which linebacker or safety he wants to pick apart. Linebacker Nicholas Morrow was under the microscope last time, as he allowed five catches for 129 yards and a touchdown in coverage. Defensive backs Reed Blankenship and Eli Ricks were also bullied. The Eagles will have Zach Cunningham and Avonte Maddox on the field after those guys missed the regular-season matchup, but they haven't looked good since returning.
The best case for the Eagles might be a limited version of Christian McCaffrey, who is dealing with a calf injury suffered during Week 17. He said he could have played in Week 18 and is expected to be ready for the divisional round, but there's always the possibility San Francisco is bluffing or that the star back might aggravate the injury. Given the Eagles' weaknesses on defense and the injuries they're battling on offense, their NFC title defense ends here.
Prediction: 49ers 34, Eagles 18
(3) Detroit Lions at (2) Dallas Cowboys
The Lions undoubtedly feel like this game should be taking place in Detroit as opposed to Texas given what transpired on their now-infamous 2-point try in Week 17. My big takeaway is that that game should have been a shootout. The two teams had four drives start outside their own 40-yard line and turned them into a grand total of 3 points. The Lions failed on downs at the Dallas 4-yard line, and the Cowboys lost a touchdown when CeeDee Lamb fumbled the ball through the end zone for a touchback. This was a 35-34 game masquerading at 20-19.
Detroit's best player in the matchup was Aidan Hutchinson, who needs to have another huge game for the Lions to stay afloat. Hutchinson had three sacks, four tackles for loss and five knockdowns in the loss, beating three different Cowboys linemen to get to Dak Prescott. Prescott is the league's best quarterback against the blitz by QBR (93.0) this season, so unlike the Rams matchup, coordinator Aaron Glenn's propensity to help out the rush by sending extra blitzers could backfire. When Glenn blitzed the first time out, Prescott went 13-of-20 for 215 yards and a 92-yard touchdown pass to Lamb. The score signals the risk-reward for both sides: Glenn was able to get Derrick Barnes running free directly at Prescott, but the Cowboys star simply stepped aside, scrambled out of the pocket and found Lamb on the run for the biggest touchdown pass of the season.
Lamb finished with 227 yards and a touchdown, so the Lions will have to find other solutions to stop him in a rematch. Detroit typically plays sides at cornerback. Cameron Sutton is on the offense's left, while Glenn benched Jerry Jacobs for Kindle Vildor on the right side down the stretch. Rookie Brian Branch was the lead slot corner that day, but the Lions got C.J. Gardner-Johnson back in Week 18. Gardner-Johnson played safety in the win over the Vikings, but could he move back into the slot if Lamb torches them again?
The Cowboys weren't able to get their desired level of pressure on Goff, who was only sacked once on 35 dropbacks. He took an average of 2.8 seconds to throw, his third-fastest rate all season. Dallas' pressure rate was higher than that, but he hit a perfect 63-yard pass to Jameson Williams under duress from Micah Parsons, who beat offensive tackle Penei Sewell on the play. Parsons was on the right side of the offense more often than the left in the first matchup; would the Cowboys line him up more often on the left side in a rematch?
One player whose absence could make a difference? Sam LaPorta, who was targeted a team-high 12 times for 84 yards in Week 17. The star rookie tight end suffered a knee injury and reportedly has an outside shot of playing against the Rams on Sunday, although that might also just be some thoughtful bluffing by coach Dan Campbell. The other way to beat the Cowboys is on the ground, and while the Lions ran for 125 yards against them, it took 31 carries to get there.
I just keep coming back to the biggest point of concern in this game: Goff versus a dynamic Cowboys pass rush. The Lions have a great line at their best -- and they did an excellent job last time out -- but the Cowboys came within a fumble of getting out to a 14-3 lead, which might have set the game on an entirely different trajectory. They get out to that lead this time, and the pass rush brings it home.
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 24
AFC divisional round
(4) Houston Texans at (1) Baltimore Ravens
Just let this matchup sink in for a second. Do you know how many people are going to pick the Texans to win if it lines up this way? It's always fun to jump on the bandwagon of the young team with nothing to lose, and there are going to be people who are nervous about the Ravens and Lamar Jackson's lack of playoff success until they actually see them win.
These teams played all the way back in Week 1 in what was a comfortable Baltimore victory, 25-9. It was a different group of players in some ways, as running back J.K. Dobbins scored a touchdown, Dameon Pierce was the lead runner for the Texans and Tank Dell caught three passes running behind Robert Woods. It's easy to write off what happened four months ago as a different sport, especially given how great C.J. Stroud has looked since.
The problem is the Ravens are better now than they were then, too. That was an ugly game for Jackson, who fumbled twice, threw an interception and didn't score a touchdown. He looks more comfortable in the offense and has more of a rapport with his receivers. Baltimore didn't have tight end Mark Andrews in that game, either, and it was without cornerback Marlon Humphrey. The game was before it had signed edge rusher Kyle Van Noy, and defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney was still ramping up after being signed a few weeks earlier. Safety Marcus Williams, left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum all got hurt during the game.
Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald's specializes in creating pressure without blitzing, which could create havoc for the Texans. They were able to create pressure without sending more than four rushers on a league-high 175 dropbacks this season, allowing a 5.9 QBR on those passes. Stroud had a 17.0 QBR in those situations. Macdonald's defense also created 38 unblocked initial pressures, resulting in a 5.9 QBR. The Texans allowed the league's sixth-most unblocked pressures, and their 21.0 QBR on those plays rank 24th.
It's just not a great matchup for Stroud, whose propensity for throwing deep is matched by the NFL's sixth-best deep pass defense. The Texans also rank 22nd in the league in QBR on throws in the range of 11-20 yards, the intermediate zone Jackson sprays with completions. Only seven teams have allowed more passing yards in that range. I'm counting on the Ravens to advance here.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 13
(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (2) Buffalo Bills
Two years after one of the most dramatic final few minutes of a playoff game you'll ever see, the Bills are back facing the Chiefs. And after beating the Chiefs in Kansas City in early December to help kick-start their five-game winning streak and eventual rise atop the AFC East, Buffalo will be hosting this rematch, marking Patrick Mahomes' first career game in the AFC bracket outside of Arrowhead Stadium.
While the Bills both replaced their offensive coordinator and went on a winning streak shortly thereafter, the move from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady has not helped the offense. They dropped from third in EPA per play before the move to seventh afterward. They made the same drop in QBR while falling from fourth in points scored per drive to eighth. Their red zone efficiency fell from third to 17th.
The big improvement has been with turnovers, where the Bills ranked 31st in the percentage of drives ending in giveaways before the switch and 17th afterward. Given what we saw from Josh Allen in Week 18, when he threw two interceptions into the end zone, lost a fumble and cost Buffalo a chance at a score before halftime by throwing the ball inbounds, I don't think we've seen Brady appreciably change the quarterback. I don't think Allen's true turnover rate is going to produce the second-most turnovers of any offense, but we're likely going to see the same Allen, both good and bad, that we saw earlier this season.
Facing a brutal schedule and already down star linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre'Davious White, Sean McDermott's defense did an excellent job of recovering and surviving during the five-game stretch to end the season. The Bills finished that run fifth in QBR allowed, although that was also fueled by interceptions (seven picks in that run). McDermott lost his replacements for those starters in Week 18 when Tyrel Dodson and Rasul Douglas went out injured, though both players are expected to be back during the postseason.
I've barely talked about the Chiefs, who have their own issues coming into the playoffs. While they get left tackle Donovan Smith back from a stinger, he has had his usual battles with penalties in Kansas City. Tight end Travis Kelce's production is way down during the second half. Wideouts Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney are both injured, which could be a plus or minus for the Chiefs. Jerick McKinnon is on injured reserve, and it's unclear whether the receiving back will return during the postseason.
Once upon a time, this matchup was predicated on a defense that did a great job of preventing explosive plays stopping an offense that was unmatched in creating them. Now, when Mahomes is on the field, it's about managing the checkdowns and catching the tipped passes. The Chiefs threw the shortest passes of any offense in the regular season.
Since Milano went out, the Bills rank 22nd in QBR allowed against throws to running backs and tight ends, which is where Mahomes goes when he wants to move the football. They ranked 10th against that group last season when Milano and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds were on the field. Kelce hasn't been a threat to take over a game singlehandedly since October, but the Chiefs will likely up his usage rate after keeping the future Hall of Famer on the field for about 77% of the offensive snaps when healthy during the regular season, his lowest snap share since 2014.
I just don't love this matchup for the Bills, even if they won the last time out. They benefited from recovering both fumbles in that game and got away with blowing what should have been a game-losing touchdown with 1:25 to go when Toney lined up offside. The Chiefs didn't have Isiah Pacheco that day, and he has been a difference-maker in the running game.
For the Bills offensively, this isn't a great matchup. The Chiefs lead the league in sack rate (8.8%) and are third in pressure rate (35.3%), and they're going up against a quarterback who has thrown seven interceptions under pressure this season. Allen's best receiver by a considerable margin is Stefon Diggs, and the Chiefs have been able to lock down top wideouts with corner L'Jarius Sneed. Just as the Bills started their return to the top of the league by beating the Chiefs, their run ends against Kansas City.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Bills 16
NFC Championship Game
(2) Dallas Cowboys at (1) San Francisco 49ers
Same as it ever was. The 49ers have mostly tormented the Cowboys during the Mike McCarthy era, aside from a 41-33 loss in a game quarterbacked by Nick Mullens and Andy Dalton in 2020. The 49ers beat the Cowboys 23-17 in the 2021 playoffs, topped them 19-12 in the postseason a year later and then added a 42-10 shellacking in October. San Francisco has owned Dallas, so this shouldn't be a contest. Right?
Not so fast. When one team has beaten another in consecutive postseasons and then faces that team for the third consecutive postseason, what happens next? I went back through post-merger NFL history to see. If the one team totally dominates the other, it should keep winning in that third game, right?
That doesn't happen. In those third games, the dominating team that won the first two contests has gone 3-4 in the third playoff game. That includes a four-year stretch in which the Packers and 49ers played four postseasons in a row in the 1990s; the Packers won the third game, but the 49ers won the fourth to break their spell.
One of those examples, you might remember, is a matchup between these very Cowboys and 49ers in the 1990s. The Cowboys beat the 49ers 30-20 in the 1992 NFC Championship Game and 38-21 in the same game a year later. They even added a 26-17 regular-season victory over the Cowboys during the 1993 regular season. In 1994? The 49ers got their revenge. They beat the Cowboys 21-14 during the regular season, then topped Barry Switzer's boys 38-28 in the conference title game, with the 49ers scoring touchdowns on their first three drives.
It's not a perfect comp, given that the 49ers have won four straight against the Cowboys in the modern example, but there are other examples of a team breaking its opponent's spell suddenly. The Cowboys went 6-0 against the Packers between 1994 and 1996 before losing twice to Green Bay in 1997. The Eagles went 5-0 against the Bucs between the start of the 2000 season and the 2002 playoffs, but despite hosting the Buccaneers in sub-freezing temperatures in the 2002 NFC Championship Game, Tampa manhandled Philly en route to a 27-10 victory.
All of this is to say that what has happened in the past doesn't automatically prove the 49ers are destined to blow out the Cowboys, even if that might be what happens if these two teams play again. And given what we know about the 49ers, the Cowboys are well-positioned to beat them like the Ravens did a few weeks ago. Dan Quinn's defense is opportunistic and capable of forcing multiple interceptions quickly. If it can get ahead of Brock Purdy and make the 49ers one-dimensional, the second-year quarterback can look human quickly.
The defense has generally done well against the 49ers during this stretch, with this season's regular-season blowout as an exception. Can Dak Prescott and the offense, though, do anything against the San Francisco defense? Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner are a brutal matchup, as the 49ers are the league's fourth-best defense on throws between the numbers. Quarterbacks have to operate there under peril; opposing passers facing the 49ers have five touchdowns against 17 interceptions on throws to the middle of the field, the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio in that area for any defense.
There is something that does give the 49ers trouble, though: motion. They rank eighth in EPA per play when offenses are static before the snap, but that figure drops to 28th when the offense has a player in motion. The 49ers played the Cowboys in Week 6, just before Dallas' bye. And since returning from that bye, Prescott & Co. have been an entirely different offense:
How Dallas' Offense Has Changed Since Its Bye
SPLIT BEFORE WEEK 7 AFTER WEEK 7
Early-down pass rate 56.7% (11th in NFL) 60.3% (5th)
Pre-snap motion rate 7.9% (32nd) 19.2% (17th)
EPA/play on offense 0.01 (11th) 0.16 (1st)
The Cowboys have more than doubled their plays in which a player is in motion at the time of the snap, which is the particular motion the 49ers have struggled with. McCarthy has upped his team's pass rate on early downs in neutral situations. And perhaps as a result, they have been the most efficient offense in football since the bye. Some will point toward an easier schedule after the bye as a cause, and while I'm willing to believe that helped, I pointed out in my awards column that Prescott has been much better against bad teams than average quarterbacks.
That's the path for a Cowboys upset. Throw early to get a lead, get pressure on Purdy, force an interception or two and make the 49ers one-dimensional. We saw the Ravens and Bengals beat Purdy that way earlier this season. I might be too attached to my preseason pick of the Cowboys winning the NFC, but they can beat the 49ers.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, 49ers 21
AFC Championship Game
(3) Kansas City Chiefs at (1) Baltimore Ravens
You might not remember the last time these two teams played, but it was a classic. In Week 2 of the 2021 season, the Chiefs led 35-24 in the fourth quarter, only for a pair of Ravens touchdowns to give them a 36-35 lead with 3:14 to go. Kansas City drove into Baltimore territory for a game-winning field goal, but with 1:24 to go, Odafe Oweh forced and recovered a Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumble, handing a dramatic victory to the Ravens.
That game took place a long time ago. The leading rushers were Edwards-Helaire and Ty'Son Williams. Marquise Brown, Latavius Murray, Darrel Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Tyrann Mathieu all scored touchdowns. Tyreek Hill was still on the Chiefs. Mike Macdonald was the defensive coordinator at Michigan. Kyle Hamilton was starting his final season at Notre Dame. A lot has changed.
Lamar Jackson ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns in that game, and that's a good place to start. The Chiefs haven't given up many big runs to quarterbacks this season, but perhaps as a product of playing Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, they've given up too many first downs in the quarterback run game. The Chiefs have the third-worst success rate against quarterback runs and have allowed seven first downs over expectation (FDOE) on those carries. Jackson might not break a 60-yarder, but if he can pick up a couple of extra first downs, that would be a plus.
Overall, Kansas City ranks 26th in rush defense success rate this season. It's a natural point of attack for the Ravens, but their running backs have just been fine. Keaton Mitchell was off to a fantastic start before tearing his ACL in December, with 201 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) on just 47 carries, but Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have been league-average given their blocking. Neither has been great in short-yardage, with Edwards having one FDOE despite his 13 rushing touchdowns. Jackson might need to shoulder the load there.
The blocking situation might also favor the Ravens on offense. Kansas City's best pass-rusher is the often-irrepressible Chris Jones, but the strength of the Baltimore pass-blocking unit is on the interior. Center Tyler Linderbaum and guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler combined to allow just 4.5 sacks this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Tackles Morgan Moses, Ronnie Stanley and Patrick Mekari combined to allow 22.5 sacks. Jones will line up outside in obvious passing situations, but the Ravens should be able to protect Jackson on early downs. George Karlaftis had 10.5 sacks this season, but several were cleanups from Jones' pressure -- he and Charles Omenihu will need to win one-on-one matchups against Baltimore's tackles.
The big concern for the Chiefs defense should be the play-action game, where Jackson has been virtually unstoppable. Kansas City ranks 26th in QBR allowed versus play-fakes this season. Linebacker Nick Bolton has been out for most of the season and should help in coverage after making it back for the final four meaningful games, but right as he returned, second-year safety Bryan Cook went down with a serious ankle injury and is expected to miss the remainder of the postseason. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has replaced him with former Bucs safety Mike Edwards, who will need to keep his wits about him when the Ravens take shots downfield.
On the other hand, the Ravens are the sort of passing attack the Chiefs could slow down, given their personnel. Corner L'Jarius Sneed should be able to handle rookie Zay Flowers, the only wide receiver who sees regular targets. Odell Beckham Jr. has been very efficient, but Baltimore has only been willing or able to give him about 18 routes per game; either his knees aren't healthy enough to take a full workload or the franchise has been saving him for a larger snap share in the postseason. We'll see which in two weeks. Tight end Isaiah Likely has been solid, but he's markedly less efficient than Mark Andrews, who averaged 2.3 yards per route run before his fibula injury; it remains to be seen whether Andrews will be back for the AFC Championship Game.
The Ravens also seem like a solid bet to slow down the Chiefs, given that they rank third in the league in QBR allowed against running backs and tight ends. They're also the league's best defense when quarterbacks hold the ball for more than three seconds, and as you increase the time further to four seconds, the gap between them and everyone else grows larger (by QBR allowed).
Like the Chiefs, though, the Ravens' best pass-rusher is on the interior, where Kansas City is strongest. Justin Madubuike is having a career year and has overpowered opposing linemen all season, but Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith are one of the best trios in all of football. Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy have popped up on the edge for the Ravens -- they'll need to win their one-on-ones and successfully take down Mahomes.
I'm fascinated to see Mahomes line up against a Macdonald defense. The star quarterback can erase a lot of the problems Macdonald creates for opposing quarterbacks. Mahomes is an incredibly fast processor, can make rushers miss, can create throwing lanes from inexplicable angles and has the best instincts for when to scramble in the league. The Ravens haven't allowed a ton of rushing yards by virtue of being ahead so often, but their success rate against opposing rushers ranks 22nd. This could be a game in which running back Isiah Pacheco features as the focal point of the Chiefs offense.
Something the Chiefs will also do to take the Ravens out of their best personnel on defense is go with multiple tight ends. Kansas City uses 12 (one back, two tight ends) or 13 (one back, three tight ends) personnel nearly 36% of the time, and that has been a weakness for Baltimore. The Ravens otherwise have the NFL's best pass defense by QBR, but when teams have come out with two or more tight ends on the field, they fall to 24th. They've seen fewer snaps with multiple tight ends than any other team, but this is a tactic coach Andy Reid can use to create more blockers in the ground game, longer paths for Baltimore's pass-rushers and to work play-action.
Ever so narrowly, I lean toward the Chiefs, who are a little stronger along the offensive line, healthier on defense and have offensive contributors I trust more than the playmakers in Baltimore. Getting Andrews back might shift things, and the Ravens have been the better team on the whole this season, but I just can't bring myself to pick against Mahomes.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Ravens 17
Super Bowl LVIII
(2) Dallas Cowboys vs. (3) Kansas City Chiefs
The NFL would probably like this one. The league's budding dynasty versus its most talked-about team. Patrick Mahomes vs. Dak Prescott. Travis Kelce vs. CeeDee Lamb. Micah Parsons vs. Chris Jones. Taylor Swift vs ... maybe we can get Jessica Simpson to come back? Mike McCarthy vs. Andy Reid, who left the Packers in 1998 after serving as their quarterbacks coach to take the Eagles job. McCarthy, who had held that job with the Chiefs, left Kansas City to take the quarterbacks role with Green Bay.
Let's start with the Cowboys on the ball. Could L'Jarius Sneed take Lamb out of the game, even when the star receiver lines up in the slot? If he can even slow down Lamb, it would be an enormous gain for the Chiefs. Prescott has a 95.1 QBR and averages 9.7 yards per attempt this season when he targets Lamb, but that drops to 77.5 and 6.9 yards per attempt when he targets anybody else. Sneed is not going to hold Lamb catchless, but if he can limit Lamb to a handful of catches, that's a huge advantage for Kansas City.
The Cowboys have an advantage against just about any team because of their offensive line, which is why Steve Spagnuolo's pressure packages and ability to manufacture free rushers is going to be so essential. The problem there, though, is Prescott has absolutely torched teams that send extra rushers after him this season. He leads the NFL in QBR against the blitz and is even No. 1 while under pressure. When these two teams played in 2021, Prescott was sacked five times and turned the ball over three times, including an interception at the end of both halves and a strip sack from an unblocked rusher. He's playing better than he did then, but this is a better Kansas City defense than the 2021 unit, too.
I'd recommend attacking the Chiefs on the ground, but that has been a weakness for the Cowboys all season. Tony Pollard has never looked healthy after recovering from his fractured fibula from last January, and he finished the season with minus-39 RYOE on 252 attempts. He has been decent between the tackles, but like Ezekiel Elliott a year ago, he has been dismal when he bounces stuff outside; his minus-94 RYOE on those runs is the worst mark for any back in the league. Last season, Elliott ranked last in the same category. The Chiefs have been more susceptible to outside runs than inside carries this season by RYOE, so that's not a great fit for what Pollard seems left capable of doing.
On the other hand, the place to throw against the Cowboys aligns with where Mahomes will want to put the football. The Cowboys rank eighth in QBR allowed against throws outside the numbers, where Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland are looking for picks. They're 13th on throws over the middle, with a QBR 14 points higher. Dallas coordinator Dan Quinn comes from the Seattle defensive school, and while he has diversified his defensive portfolio way more than fellow graduate Gus Bradley, Mahomes has torched that style of defense over his entire career.
Could the Chiefs keep Parsons off the stat sheet? Probably not. He had two sacks the last time these two teams played, and his ability to pressure the opposing quarterback faster than any other player is going to inevitably blow up plays. Mahomes has historically been the NFL's best quarterback against the blitz before Prescott took his mantle this season, so if the Cowboys can get pressure with Parsons and don't need to send extra rushers, it'll be their best chance of slowing down the Kansas City offense.
As with the Ravens, I'd expect Reid to dare the Cowboys to defend bigger personnel. Markquese Bell, who has taken over as one of the starting linebackers this season, is an ex-safety listed at 205 pounds. The 49ers were able to pick on Bell and Damone Clark in October. I'm not sure the Cowboys have a great answer for covering Kelce, although their cornerbacks must be drooling at the idea of all the tipped passes they could catch off the fingertips of Mahomes' wide receivers.
In the big picture, this reminds me a little bit of the 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl in the 2019 season, when the Niners had a solid quarterback, great playmakers, a ferocious front four and an opportunistic secondary. They beat the Chiefs for most of the first three quarters, but once the pass rush gassed out, Kansas City was able to come back late. That team had Tyreek Hill, but Sammy Watkins had a 38-yard catch late in the game and Damien Williams scored two touchdowns to take and seal the lead. This one also has a better defense to prevent the Cowboys from getting too far ahead to begin with. I picked the 49ers in that game, felt like a genius for three quarters and then watched the lead slip away through gritted teeth in the fourth. I don't want to make that mistake again.
Dynasties have years like this one. The Patriots did.
Years when they struggled during the regular season but did just enough in the post-season to hang a banner.
The 2001, 2014 and 2018 Patriots were good, but not great football teams. They got a little lucky and found the necessary plays/gears in the playoffs.
If you want to be seen in that tier, you're gonna have a year or two in a 10 year run where you manage a title that folks didn't really expect you to win. Maybe this is that year.
When you look at some of these stats it defines KC's season pretty well.
-Leads the NFL in dropped passes
-Near the bottom of the league in turnover differential
-10-0 when scoring 21 points or more
KC playing clean football with an elite defense and the GOAT at QB isn't far fetched at all.
I've been a little flummoxed by their inability to generate turnovers all season. And it's not even that they're dropping picks left and right - there's just something in their scheme that rarely seems to put them in a position to get them despite doing a good job of forcing pressure.
I wonder if it's not because of how much man coverage they utilize. It's REALLY hard to get a pick in man - most of those come in zone where a DB reads the play and drives downhill on the ball.
But some of it may just be bad luck. Turnovers often come in bunches - no time like the present, lads...
What's our fumble recovery #s this year? Seems like we've lost alot and never seem to have one we force bounce our way.
Yeah, during that big defensive TD last week I was thinking, "please save that for the playoffs."
The fumble recovery against Tyreek in Germany was the biggest Chiefs play of the season. But that was an outlier. I believe they were third from the bottom in turnovers forced heading into the final week. I can't imagine they're not being coached to punch the ball out or hit the QB on the throwing arm. All defensive coaches preach turnovers.
Dynasties have years like this one. The Patriots did.
Years when they struggled during the regular season but did just enough in the post-season to hang a banner.
The 2001, 2014 and 2018 Patriots were good, but not great football teams. They got a little lucky and found the necessary plays/gears in the playoffs.
If you want to be seen in that tier, you're gonna have a year or two in a 10 year run where you manage a title that folks didn't really expect you to win. Maybe this is that year.
On the AHPKC podcast they looked at the Pats total DVOA over the Brady years. Turns out most of their best years they didn't win the SB, and on some of their worst, including worst overall, they did with the SB.
01-11-2024, 11:36 AM
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Barnwell picks KC to win the Super Bowl
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