The Chiefs got lucky to win Super Bowls

[BWillie]

Get out your pitchforks boys, you ain't gonna like this. It's actually good arguments. We probably got lucky last year, unlucky in the losses to Brady because that mother****er is the luckiest person alive.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by staylor26

They already signed Hollywood and have set themsevles up to draft offensive heavily after bringing back everybody but Sneed on D.

The plane as never to run it back with the same offense.

Yep. I like what we are doing.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I would say there is much more luck involved in poker than you even are giving credit for. In one tournament, I'd rather be one of the worst players in the field and be one of the luckiest and it isn't even close. You can be absolutely awful and win a poker tournament.

When I play online in cash games I win only 53 or 54% of the time in a given cash session. In live cash where the games are much much easier I win about 62% of the time. In one day, one game, luck is the biggest factor of my success.

Over an entire year luck STILL a factor, just not the biggest factor. And in football you are only playing 17 + playoff games so there is that much more of a luck factor than some other sports or games.

I barely count online poker.

There's too many lunatics in those rooms that throw 'calculated decisionmaking' out the window.

When you have 2 or 3 guys throwing hand grenades out there, it changes things quite a bit. So yeah, in online I'd say luck plays a greater role.

[ThrobProng]

The Chiefs are lucky that the Bills were dumb enough to hand the GOAT to us.

[poolboy]

Defense is at least 3/4 of what it was last year...Hell yeah lets get some more O in the draft

[poolboy]

I mean, no one prob thought Pat would be the goat when we drafted him...some luck there for sure

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I barely count online poker.

There's too many lunatics in those rooms that throw 'calculated decisionmaking' out the window.

When you have 2 or 3 guys throwing hand grenades out there, it changes things quite a bit. So yeah, in online I'd say luck plays a greater role.

lol what

Online is full of multitabling pros who are making very good calculating decisions. Much less fish as well.

Live is full of plumbers, ditch diggers, wealth managers, drunk guys who have no sound strategy. Luck plays a big factor in both but if your winrate per table live is 10-15x higher than an online game then your variance will be lower and in turn the probability of you winning a given session increases.

If my winrate at a live 5/10 game was the same as an online 5/10 game where I could also play 8 tables, I could probably be a billionaire by the time I died.

[O.city]

Luck plays a big factor in single elimination sports, but it’s hard to quantify and doesn’t lead to good talking points

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I've always believed this but fans tend to think there is almost no luck in sports.

I'd say an overwhelming percentage (>90%) of fans realize there is some luck involved in winning/losing. Honestly I've never seen anyone argue against it (IRL or on the Internet) and I read Reddit quite a bit. That place is filled with brain dead idiots.

What fans are you talking about?

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by ThrobProng

The Chiefs are lucky that the Bills were dumb enough to hand the GOAT to us.

Is it luck that the Ravens thought that Lamar could out-QB Mahomes in the playoffs?

Not really, no. Jackson is always terrible in the playoffs. When he runs or when he doesn't.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

I'd say an overwhelming percentage (>90%) of fans realize there is some luck involved in winning/losing. Honestly I've never seen anyone argue against it (IRL or on the Internet) and I read Reddit quite a bit. That place is filled with brain dead idiots.

What fans are you talking about?

Walk into a sports bar when any game is on.

Step 2. Look around.

[Pepe Silvia]

Luck will always be a factor for any Championship team.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by O.city

Luck plays a big factor in single elimination sports, but it’s hard to quantify and doesn’t lead to good talking points

I wouldn't call it a big factor, because if it was then Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be 15-3 in those single elimination games. It definitely is a factor, but it has nothing on the inevitability of Patrick Mahomes.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Walk into a sports bar when any game is on.

Step 2. Look around.

What am I looking for?

[Red Dawg]

Let me tell you about luck. Throwing a pick that literally lost the game and Dee Ford gets a flag the same play. Throwing a pick in the SB and getting a holding ball across the field to keep the ball. Nothing that lucky has happened to us.

[KC_Connection]

Mahomes makes his own luck.