****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****

[BigRedChief]

Cardinals announce 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2019 season.

Spoiler!

The Cardinals today announced their 25-man Opening Day roster that includes four first-time Cardinals and 13 players that were developed within their organization.

PITCHERS (12): 60 – John Brebbia-RHP, 22 – Jack Flaherty-RHP, 53 – John Gant- RHP, 49 – Jordan Hicks-RHP, 43 – Dakota Hudson- RHP, 55 – Dominic Leone-RHP, 59 – Mike Mayers- RHP, 21 – Andrew Miller-LHP, 39 – Miles Mikolas-RHP, 29 – Alex Reyes, RHP, 52 – Michael Wacha-RHP, 50 – Adam Wainwright- RHP;

CATCHERS (2): 4 -Yadier Molina, 32 – Matt Wieters;

INFIELDERS (6): 13 - Matt Carpenter, 12 – Paul DeJong, 46 – Paul Goldschmidt, 34 – Yario Muñoz, 33 – Drew Robinson, 16 – Kolten Wong;

OUTFIELDERS (5): 46 – Harrison Bader, 25 - Dexter Fowler, 38 – José Martínez, 41 – Tyler O'Neill, 23 – Marcell Ozuna;

DISABLED LIST (5): 27 - Brett Cecil (10-day, left hand Carpal Tunnel syndrome), 44 – Luke Gregerson (10-day, right shoulder impingement), 18 – Carlos Martínez (right shoulder cuff strain), 3 - Jedd Gyorko (10-day, right calf strain), 67 - Justin Williams (10-day, right hand 2nd metacarpal fracture).

2019 Opening Day Line up

Spoiler!

Starting lineup
Matt Carpenter 3B
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Paul DeJong SS
Ozuna LF
Yadier Molina C
Dexter Fowler RF
Kolten Wong 2B
Harrison Bader CF

Won the Central Division. Won the NLDS.

NLDS Playoff roster

Spoiler!

Pitchers (12): Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Genesis Cabrera, Tyler Webb, Andrew Miller, John Brebbia, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Carlos Martinez.

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters.

Infielders (6): Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Yairo Munoz.

Outfielders (5): Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena.

NLDS Playoff Game 1 starting lineup

Spoiler!

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Tommy Edman, 3B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Paul DeJong, SS

7. Kolten Wong, 2B

8. Harrison Bader, CF

9. Miles Mikolas, P

NLCS Game One Starting lineup

Spoiler!

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Kolten Wong, 2B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Matt Carpenter 3B

7.Tommy Edmond RF

8. Paul DeJong, SS

9. Miles Mikolas P

[Marco Polo]

Responsible contracts — including Paul Goldchmidt’s — have the Cardinals set up nicely for the future

By Bernie Miklasz Mar 25, 2019

By​ acquiring first​ baseman​ Paul​ Goldschmidt​ and​ signing​ him to​ a five-year​ contract extension, the​ Cardinals seem​ to​ reaffirmed their​ “Win​ Now!”​​ philosophy for 2019. That became a popular media meme during the final days of spring training.

I find this interesting for multiple reasons.

If 2019 is about winning now, then what about 2018, 2017 and 2016? The Cardinals missed the playoffs in all three seasons. Why not try to “Win Now” when approaching every season?
The Cardinals are a smart, efficient, well-run organization with vast financial resources and a healthy supply of prospects.

As far as I can tell, nothing prevented the Cardinals from making bold trades in recent seasons. The front office was free to make any move that inspired them into action.
And isn’t the Goldschmidt deal more of an example of jumping at an opportunity to secure a superb all-around player?

When a talent of Goldschmidt’s magnitude is available, you take advantage of the opportunity. Especially when the price — sending pitcher Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and a minor-league infielder to Arizona — was a fairly pain-free exchange that didn’t reduce the Cardinals’ chances of returning to the playoffs in 2019.

This was a proverbial no-brainer, not a seismic shift in philosophy. I don’t think this translated into a “Win Now” move; it translates into a winning move, a common-sense move.

How many Goldschmidt-type players surface on the trade market? And given the terms of this trade, how could the Cardinals possibly say no?

Acquiring Goldschmidt was an obvious addition, but I give Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak credit for backing up the trade by quickly signing Goldy to the contract extension.

Not that they had much of a choice. You don’t bring Goldschmidt here for a year, then let him stroll away. Convincing Goldschmidt to stay with the Cardinals beyond 2019 didn’t profile as an arduous challenge — it’s a natural fit — but it’s always a mistake to take these things for granted. The Cardinals got it done, and that’s what counts.

Kudos.

Here’s the more fascinating part — at least for me, anyway …

For all of the talk about winning now, this new Goldschmidt/Cardinals partnership is about setting up the Cardinals for a potentially special future.

Sure, Goldy can help the Cardinals accomplish their goals in 2019. But by securing him as their first baseman through 2024 — and at a reasonable cost — the Cardinals are poised for sustained success. But only if they’re adept, and aggressive at building their team around him.

Goldschmidt will make $14.5 million this season in the final year of the last contract he signed with Arizona. The five-year extension for $130 million begins in 2020, and the Cardinals will pay Goldy an average of just more than $24 million over the next six seasons.

That affordable deal does not crush or squeeze the payroll. The Cardinals are in no danger of entering luxury-tax hell. Goldy’s annual compensation leaves plenty of space for safe payroll maneuvering.
That applies to the summer of 2019. The current St. Louis payroll sits at $159.4 million, according to Spotrac. That projected number can easily accommodate additional salaries should the Cardinals decide to get busy and strengthen troublesome roster spots via trade.

Beyond that, the Cardinals are looking at a phase of enviable cost certainty. Goldschmidt helped; he didn’t insist on breaking the bank.

Let’s walk through this, shall we?

(Note: The salary data for the basic payroll information came from Spotrac.)

Starting pitching

The Cardinals’ five-man rotation will cost $29.2 million this season. That’s truly economical, representing about 18.7 percent of the total team payroll for 2019. In the National League, 11 teams have a higher percentage of payroll dollars tied up in their starting pitching than St. Louis this season.

The Cubs are spending more on starting pitching than any team in the majors: $100.345 million, or 48 percent of their payroll.

Wait, there’s more: Spotrac included Carlos Martinez in the Cards’ rotation, and his salary for 2019 is $11.7 million. But suppose Martinez — when healthy — pitches out of the bullpen?

If Martinez isn’t included, the five-man rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright would cost $18.2 million.

For perspective, digest this: The Cubs are paying three starters — individually — $20 million or more this season (Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels).

Overall, Spotrac projects the Cardinals to allocate $56 million on pitching this season for a workable 35 percent of the payroll. And even if Martinez ends up starting, the Cardinals will have a cost-efficient rotation. They’ll be pouring less money into their rotation than multiple hopeless teams, including the Kansas City Royals.

This could be interpreted another way: The Cardinals could have pumped more cash into their 2019 rotation. And perhaps they will, if an urgent need arises during the season.

The rotation may cost even less in 2020; Wacha and Wainwright can become free agents after this season. (Mikolas, however, is set to make $17 million a year through 2023 when his new contract goes online next season.)

There are no onerous contracts here.

What the Cardinals have, for the most part, are young starters lined up who won’t be eligible for free agency for several years.

John Gant can head to free agency in 2023. Jack Flaherty and prime reliever Jordan Hicks won’t become free agents until 2024. Dakota Hudson, Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are eligible for free agency in 2025.
If Carlos Martinez fades, the Cardinals can get out of his contract after the 2021 season. (More on that later.)

And this trend will likely continue, as the Cardinals have other young starters in development. And with so much pitching, there won’t be enough big-league jobs for all of the arms. Not a problem. Teams covet young pitching in trades, and the Cardinals will have assets to peddle.

The low cost of their starting pitching obviously gives this team flexibility to funnel resources into other parts of the team. Or, for that matter, to acquire or sign an expensive veteran starting pitcher to join the young arms. (Think of Houston’s late-season trade for Justin Verlander in 2017.)

Few long-term obligations

Let’s go through this, year by year.


After the 2019 season

• Eligible for free agency: Left fielder Marcell Ozuna, starting pitchers Wacha and Wainwright and backup catcher Matt Wieters.
• Options: The Cardinals can pay third baseman Matt Carpenter $18.5 million in 2020 or decline and pay a $2 million buyout. Infielder Jedd Gyorko has a $13 million salary for 2020 that can be terminated with a $1 million buyout.
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2020: an estimated $132 million, including the lofty salaries for Goldschmidt and Mikolas.

After the 2020 season

• Eligible for free agency: Catcher Yadier Molina and lefty reliever Brett Cecil.
• Options: Second baseman Kolten Wong is due $12.5 million in 2021 unless the Cardinals pay a $1 million buyout. The Cards have a $12.5 million option on lefty reliever Andrew Miller. The option automatically kicks in if Miller pitches 110 combined innings over the 2019 and ‘20 seasons. If the option doesn’t vest, the Cardinals can buy out Miller for $2.5 million.
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2021: approximately $79 million.

After the 2021 season

• Eligible for free agency: Outfielder Dexter Fowler and righty reliever Dominic Leone.
• Options: The Cardinals have a $17 million option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, then another option ($18 million) for 2023. But it would be easy for the team to walk away from both seasons by paying an affordable ($500,000) buyout after the 2021 season.
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2022: an estimated $49.6 million.

After the 2022 season

• Free agents: Pitchers Alex Reyes and Gant.
• Options: If the Cardinals pick up the option on Carlos Martinez for 2022, they can decline the $18 million option for 2023 at no cost (no buyout necessary).
• Guaranteed payroll commitments for 2023: about $52 million.

Rather than go deeper into this, I’ll summarize a couple of other situations in the distant future.

Center fielder Harrison Bader can become a free agent after the 2023 season.

Off in the horizon is shortstop Paul DeJong, who is under contract through at least 2023 as part of a six-year, $26 million deal signed last year. DeJong averages an affordable $6.5 million over the final three seasons of that contract, and the Cardinals will have to make a call on his $12.5 million option for 2024 (buyout: $2 million). If the Cardinals stay with DeJong in ‘24, they’ll have a $15 million option on him for 2025 that can be terminated with a $1 million.

As you can see, the Cardinals have a rather large canvas to work with over the next several years. The only substantial contracts of any real length belong to Goldschmidt and Mikolas. And maybe DeJong if the Cardinals ride with him through 2025.

In future years, the collection of young pitching will keep the payroll in check. But the Cardinals are also looking at a parade of outfielders and third basemen making their way to Busch Stadium in due time.

According to the evaluations by MLB Pipeline at MLB.com, 13 of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects are pitchers (including Reyes and Hudson).

Seven are outfielders. Three are third basemen. (The big name there is power-hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman, the team’s No. 2 prospect.) And catcher Andrew Knizner (No. 3) is widely viewed as Molina’s successor; that made it easy to include Carson Kelly in the Goldschmidt deal.

Goldschmidt noticed the abundance of young talent around him during spring training.

“I think (the talent level) just confirmed what I saw from the outside,” Goldschmidt told Jen Langosch of MLB.com. “I remember last year (watching) the Cardinals (and noticing), there was a little bit of a turnover from where it went from being a little older team to a lot of really young guys.

“This team has the opportunity to be good for the next five or six years, because all these guys have only been in the big leagues for one year or two years. They’re guys who are still under contract for a couple years. The organization has potentially set itself up to be successful.”

And the Cardinals’ new first baseman is a big part of that. Since Albert Pujols last manned first base for the Cardinals — in Game 7 of the 2011 World Series — the team has started 20 different players at first base. Only two started 100 or more games at first base in a season: Matt Adams in 2014 and Carpenter in 2017.

The first-base carousel is shutting down. Except for the occasional off-day, Goldy can be counted on to handle first base for the next six seasons.

In his seven full seasons for Arizona, he started 150 or more games five times, and averaged 145 starts per year.

Now that they’ve finally ended the chaos at first base, the Cardinals can shift their focus to other positions in the effort to “Win Now.”

And “Win For A Long Time.”

Goldschmidt’s contract — and his presence — can make a real difference. But only if the front office can take advantage of the Goldschmidt years, the young pitching and the payroll flexibility that opens a myriad of possibilities.

[Marco Polo]

I'm going to predict 90 wins. I can't wait until next week; my 9th opening day in the last 11 years (living outside of Missouri in all but three of them).

[Marcellus]

The Cardinals have won between 83 and 88 games each of these past three disappointing seasons. That’s a terrible place to be stuck, left out of the playoffs with a mediocre draft position to look forward to. The hope is that Goldschmidt nudges them back into 90-plus-win territory, which won’t be easy in an improved division.

But Goldschmidt seems like the guy for the job. He has been, arguably, the best player in the National League since 2013, with a .301/.406/.541 slash line, a 149 wRC+ and 33 WAR. The last Cardinal to consistently post 5 fWAR a season was Pujols, who hasn’t reached 4 fWAR since he went to Anaheim. Pujols was a year older than Goldschmidt when he played his first game for the Angels, and his deal was four years longer and cost Halos owner Arte Moreno an extra $110 million.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Dude.

When one of the 3 worst deals in baseball history is the bar you're trying to clear, I wouldn't get too terribly excited if you manage it.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Dude.

When one of the 3 worst deals in baseball history is the bar you're trying to clear, I wouldn't get too terribly excited if you manage it.

When you add in the cost of inflation since Pujols signed his deal and the contracts we have seen this offseason there is no way to reasonably argue Goldy isn't a bargain.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

When you add in the cost of inflation since Pujols signed his deal and the contracts we have seen this offseason there is no way to reasonably argue Goldy isn't a bargain.

and if needed, Goldy can move to DH when the new CBA starts in 2022.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

It's not accurate.

figured it was BS. Thanks for the info.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

Responsible contracts — including Paul Goldchmidt’s — have the Cardinals set up nicely for the future

Goldschmidt’s contract — and his presence — can make a real difference. But only if the front office can take advantage of the Goldschmidt years, the young pitching and the payroll flexibility that opens a myriad of possibilities.

Bernie is right. The opportunity is there to have a window to compete for a title again. Executing it will be crucial. Mo hasn't exactly covered himself in glory lately.

After visiting other fan sites and seeing what the are bitching about, I'm more hopeful for this year and the future.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

When you add in the cost of inflation since Pujols signed his deal and the contracts we have seen this offseason there is no way to reasonably argue Goldy isn't a bargain.

He isn't.

But his deal is fair. The cardinals will get what they paid for, give or take a bit.

If you expect the Matt Holliday Cardinal arc, you probably won't be too disappointed.

[Prison Bitch]

Estimation of Gold future value:

Jay Jaffe: 155m
Cardinals GM: 130m
Zymborski’s ZiPS: 119m


So his contract seems normal.


(https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cardinal...tension-fever/

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He isn't.

But his deal is fair. The cardinals will get what they paid for, give or take a bit.

If you expect the Matt Holliday Cardinal arc, you probably won't be too disappointed.

Matt Holliday was who I was thinking, minus the frying pan hands on defense.

He should produce regular season numbers.

[Marco Polo]

I actually loved the Goldy trade and extension. One thing that cannot be stated enough but hard to put into metrics is leadership. He will provide that and build a better culture. Gone are the days of Heyward and Matheny. I really wish we would've signed Harper to that exact contract and there are years to prove me wrong. That could've been a huge statement to our division for years to come.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by VAChief

Matt Holliday was who I was thinking, minus the frying pan hands on defense.

He should produce regular season numbers.

Even Carp over there wasn't bad, below average. But, acceptable when he returned to his old offensive self after the early season slump. I'm sure we will now have a +DRS at 1B.

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

I actually loved the Goldy trade and extension. One thing that cannot be stated enough but hard to put into metrics is leadership. He will provide that and build a better culture. Gone are the days of Heyward and Matheny.

Players need to know where they stand. Not be lied to by the manager. If I'm a player, even if you were not friends with Fowler, you have to think when am I next? You see "his guys" playing over obviously more talented players, that has to be demotivating. I think thats worth 2 wins, at least.

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

I really wish we would've signed Harper to that exact contract and there are years to prove me wrong. That could've been a huge statement to our division for years to come.

Agreed. Was very disappointed they didn't make Harper say no.

[bdj23]

1. Matt Carpenter (L) - 3B
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B
3. Paul DeJong (R) - SS
4. Marcell Ozuna (R) - LF
5. Yadier Molina (R) - C
6. Dexter Fowler (S) - RF
7. Kolten Wong (L) - 2B
8. Harrison Bader (R) - CF
9. Miles Mikolas (R) - P

RHP Miles Mikolas


Brewers (0-0)

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) - CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) - RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) - LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) - 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) - 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) - 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) - C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) - SS
9. Jhoulys Chacin (R) - P

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

First lineup of the season! Let the bitching begin!

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BDj23

1. Matt Carpenter (L) - 3B
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B
3. Paul DeJong (R) - SS
4. Marcell Ozuna (R) - LF
5. Yadier Molina (R) - C
6. Dexter Fowler (S) - RF
7. Kolten Wong (L) - 2B
8. Harrison Bader (R) - CF
9. Miles Mikolas (R) - P

RHP Miles Mikolas


Brewers (0-0)

1. Lorenzo Cain (R) - CF
2. Christian Yelich (L) - RF
3. Ryan Braun (R) - LF
4. Travis Shaw (L) - 3B
5. Jesus Aguilar (R) - 1B
6. Mike Moustakas (L) - 2B
7. Yasmani Grandal (S) - C
8. Orlando Arcia (R) - SS
9. Jhoulys Chacin (R) - P

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

First lineup of the season! Let the bitching begin!

If Mikolas hits Braun square in the face with a 95mph fastball today he might become my favorite Cardinal ever.