****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****

[BigRedChief]

Cardinals announce 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2019 season.

Spoiler!

The Cardinals today announced their 25-man Opening Day roster that includes four first-time Cardinals and 13 players that were developed within their organization.

PITCHERS (12): 60 – John Brebbia-RHP, 22 – Jack Flaherty-RHP, 53 – John Gant- RHP, 49 – Jordan Hicks-RHP, 43 – Dakota Hudson- RHP, 55 – Dominic Leone-RHP, 59 – Mike Mayers- RHP, 21 – Andrew Miller-LHP, 39 – Miles Mikolas-RHP, 29 – Alex Reyes, RHP, 52 – Michael Wacha-RHP, 50 – Adam Wainwright- RHP;

CATCHERS (2): 4 -Yadier Molina, 32 – Matt Wieters;

INFIELDERS (6): 13 - Matt Carpenter, 12 – Paul DeJong, 46 – Paul Goldschmidt, 34 – Yario Muñoz, 33 – Drew Robinson, 16 – Kolten Wong;

OUTFIELDERS (5): 46 – Harrison Bader, 25 - Dexter Fowler, 38 – José Martínez, 41 – Tyler O'Neill, 23 – Marcell Ozuna;

DISABLED LIST (5): 27 - Brett Cecil (10-day, left hand Carpal Tunnel syndrome), 44 – Luke Gregerson (10-day, right shoulder impingement), 18 – Carlos Martínez (right shoulder cuff strain), 3 - Jedd Gyorko (10-day, right calf strain), 67 - Justin Williams (10-day, right hand 2nd metacarpal fracture).

2019 Opening Day Line up

Spoiler!

Starting lineup
Matt Carpenter 3B
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Paul DeJong SS
Ozuna LF
Yadier Molina C
Dexter Fowler RF
Kolten Wong 2B
Harrison Bader CF

Won the Central Division. Won the NLDS.

NLDS Playoff roster

Spoiler!

Pitchers (12): Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, Genesis Cabrera, Tyler Webb, Andrew Miller, John Brebbia, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Carlos Martinez.

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters.

Infielders (6): Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Yairo Munoz.

Outfielders (5): Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena.

NLDS Playoff Game 1 starting lineup

Spoiler!

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Tommy Edman, 3B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Paul DeJong, SS

7. Kolten Wong, 2B

8. Harrison Bader, CF

9. Miles Mikolas, P

NLCS Game One Starting lineup

Spoiler!

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Kolten Wong, 2B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Yadier Molina, C

6. Matt Carpenter 3B

7.Tommy Edmond RF

8. Paul DeJong, SS

9. Miles Mikolas P

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, I get that.

But man, I dunno that they can develop what they need to develop. Who was the last legit bat that they developed that turned anything substantial? Craig?

Then they'll lose.

A lot.

They have no choice - they aren't the Yankees and they can't buy their way out of this mess. Either they develop hitting or they'll fail. They don't have a path to being a winning team without being a smart organization that can develop young players.

They're not the Royals either - they don't have to be 100% homegrown and cost effective. They can go outside the organization to supplement their internal options. But like I said, they've used their rope there and in many cases used it very poorly.

[Mecca]

Question are the Cards gonna play Tyler O'Neill or should they trade him?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Same problem.

It'll cost them a mint and Arenado has an opt-out in 2 seasons. Then you also combine that with the possibility of reduced production from Arenado away from Coors and you have a recipe for a real bad outcome.

Again - they had a chance to make a deal like that 2 or 3 years ago but at this point they've burned too much organizational capital and budget room to do it.

They're past the idea that they can 'fix' this team with any single move. The window closed on them, IMO. Now they need to actually build their way out of this. You can't do that if you keep trading away all your best prospects to get short terms guys on big money contracts.

Yeah, 6 years of Carlson may be worth more than 2 years of Arenado and that's just the start of what you would have to give up.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Question are the Cards gonna play Tyler O'Neill or should they trade him?

They should put him and Bader both on the block.

They're redundant. And the team needs a lefty with some thumb in the worst way.

I was told that Philly signed Harper to an asinine contract so they're clearly be looking to get out from under that, right? Surely they'd accept Bader or O'Neill for him...

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They should put him and Bader both on the block.

They're redundant. And the team needs a lefty with some thumb in the worst way.

I was told that Philly signed Harper to an asinine contract so they're clearly be looking to get out from under that, right? Surely they'd accept Bader or O'Neill for him...

really? Why would Philly just give him away in a salary dump after 1 year? They have plenty of money.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

really? Why would Philly just give him away in a salary dump after 1 year? They have plenty of money.

So did the Cardinals.

But I was told that pursuing Harper was reckless regardless of the fact that the Cardinals are among the most profitable teams in baseball and are sitting on billions in franchise equity.

I mean surely the Phillies recognize that and would allow us to remedy their egregious error for them.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

really? Why would Philly just give him away in a salary dump after 1 year? They have plenty of money.

They wouldn't...he is poking at those that thought it was a bad deal. It probably is going to look like a bargain after this year.

[duncan_idaho]

Harper Trendline

fWAR. fWAR MV. bWAR MV. Salary. (Surplus)

4.6. $37 million. $33.6 million. $27.5 million. ($9.5 million/6.1 million)

If he provides similar surplus through age 30, he’s $35-40 million ahead of the contract.

^ this all based on the $8 million/Win market valuation. Which has issues but is the best baseline we’ve got.

[duncan_idaho]

And holy shit, when you compare it to Paul Goldschmidt. Who is nearly as expensive as Harper at his peak. Who is older and looks to be declining. Who cost some controlled young pieces to acquire (Kelly and Weaver both put up 2 win seasons in 1/2 time last year).

Just in terms of Harper vs Goldy straight up, Harper wins everything except risk past 2024.

You throw in Kelly and Weaver and shit gets really rough.

Just basing surplus on last year and projections from this year, Harper’s surplus value on the market is around $30 million bucks. As are Weaver and Kelly (2-win players on pre-are salaries are worth around $15 million surplus value a year).

Goldschmidt’s surplus is a modest $10 million, and that’s with current models predicting a mild bounce back for him at age 32 to being a 3.5 win player.

If you project his value out over the course of the deal, unless he breaks the aging curve you’re likely looking at being $10 million in the hole or so on the value of his deal. Even projecting basically flat performance for Harper (around 4 wins a year) and Kelly and Weaver (basically 2 wins a year/player) the Cardinals are about a quarter of a billion dollars in the hole on overall from the decision to trade for Goldschmidt instead of just signing Harper and keeping Kelly and Weaver.

[DJ's left nut]

Please stop.

I had this conversation for weeks last year. I was told that we fleeced the diamondbacks and the Phillies were crazy.

Because, y'know, I have some concept of the idea of surplus value.

I have no idea how millions of dollars worth of front office executive does not.

Now it all just gives me a sad. Because the Cardinals will not be in a situation for years if not decades where a 26 year old FA who perfectly fits their needs and is likely heading to Cooperstown is ready to leave his team AND the biggest pockets in MLB are sitting it out.

I mean there is truly no justification at all for how the Cardinals approached last offseason and it really should've cost them all their jobs.

Instead they got extensions. Because....reasons.

[DJ's left nut]

Oh, and the odds of Goldschmidt (a guy who didn't break out until later in his career and is demonstrating extremely troublesome chase trends while also having defensive limitations) breaking the aging curve are effectively zero.

And it's not as though there isn't a wealth of research on this topic for anyone willing to dig into it.

Goldschmidt w/ his contract ALONE is a bad bet. Goldschmidt with his contract AND the pieces they gave up to get him is an awful one. Goldschmidt with his contract, the pieces they gave up to get him AND in chosen in lieu of Harper is friggen organizational malpractice.

I just.....{sobs}

[DJ's left nut]

God Dammit!

Start at about mid-day on 12/4 and read through about 12/8 and tell me I'm not a friggen prophet.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showt...chmidt&page=52

Man this team ****ed that up. So, so badly.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Nah..it was summed up with my two words

Fire Mo...

Nothing else needed said. We were doomed.

[Marco Polo]

This is depressing.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

This is depressing.

You cant give out contracts like the Fowler, Cecil, Goldy and extend Carp for no reason and not have the payroll chickens come home to roost.

But................. That doesn't mean the Cardinals shouldn't spend money. Yeah, your GM ****ed up, you just extended his contract. Your going to back him? Okay, make good on his ****ups or at least try. You paid $75 million in cash for the franchise. It's worth $2 Billion now. Ballpark Village is making money hand over fist. 3 million through the turnstiles every year. You said you'd put the profits into the team. It's time to open up the checkbook Dewitt to cover your GM's mistakes or at least try to.

Yeah, you spent money. Badly. You need to make it right. They should knowingly throw some money down the tube at the end of Harper's contract to strengthen our line up for the next 3-4 years.