***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by TLO

So when do we see the social distancing impact come into play?

Week or two — though there is still way too much travel within communities and within the nation.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by TLO

So when do we see the social distancing impact come into play?

I'd say 4 weeks min to start seeing it

2 weeks for initial incubation and 2 weeks for sickness/recovery to start clearing out of the system

[FloridaMan88]

Sounds better than the unsustainable mass lockdowns/social distancing...

Link: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...241521246.html

Miami-Dade plans to use targeted blood tests across the county to track the spread of coronavirus in an effort to get a broader picture of how to respond to the outbreak.

Mayor Carlos Gimenez said this week the county has access to new pinprick tests that detect the antibodies in blood that indicate someone has the disease or has recovered from it. Results can be ready in 15 minutes, and subjects will be chosen at random each week based on demographic data.

The Miami-Dade project also could put Florida’s most populated county on the leading edge of a global effort to track how many people are immune to COVID-19, the disease caused by coronavirus. For people who catch the virus and show little or no symptoms, their silent bout with COVID-19 could leave them protected from a second exposure.

Widespread resilience to the disease, known as “herd immunity,” would provide a turning point in the spread. Identifying people who have already contracted COVID-19 without knowing it could help narrow the scope of defensive, social-distancing measures.

“Right now, the only weapon we have is to hide. Stay away from people. Hide from the virus,” said Dr. Michael Lauzardo, a professor at University of Florida’s medical school who is assisting with a planned long-term study of blood samples at the school’s home base in Gainesville and in the Villages retirement community. “We have to start thinking about herd immunity. ... You can’t shut down forever.”

[SuperBowl4]

Originally Posted by ChiefZilla

stock market had a nice day

That's all that really matters

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Have you seen the most recent Oxford model? They changed the assumption regarding the rate of severity and showed a model that fit the reality in the UK but was based on it having almost peaked at this point.

That is something I am having a problem reconciling when experts make projections based on us being in the very early phases of this. That assumption seems off to me. We know it spreads ridiculously fast. We know that it was in the wild in the US for AT LEAST 2 months (more likely 3) with little to no mitigation. Not just wishful thinking here, but the revised Oxford model simply makes more sense to me.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnh...0(13).pdf?dl=0

Another issue is with testing. Since we aren't testing for antibodies, we have no clue what the negatives mean. Are those people susceptible to the virus or people who are now immune?

Yes. Great to see you post.

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by LiveSteam

Omaha has 9 cases..

That is from the entire state being flat 6ft just isn't enough distance between family members.

[Hammock Parties]

How ominous...

UPS® Service Guarantees Suspended

UPS® is committed to operating globally, except where constrained by government restrictions. The Novel Coronavirus pandemic has created unprecedented complexities, which have required us to constantly reassess our operations. Our highest priority is to help ensure the health and safety of our employees, customers, and suppliers.

Suspension of Small Package Service Guarantee

Effective March 26, 2020 and until further notice, we have suspended the UPS Service Guarantee for all shipments to any destination, at all service levels. As the effects of the Coronavirus impact our infrastructure, we will continue to seek guidance from local and national government entities regarding applicable regulations. Please continue to visit ups.com's Coronavirus web page for the most up-to-date information regarding the impact of Coronavirus on UPS Small Package services. The UPS Service Guarantee is subject to change. For further details, see the UPS Tariff/Terms and Conditions of Service.

[BIG_DADDY]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Week or two — though there is still way too much travel within communities and within the nation.

Have you ever considered the easier rout of just taking yourself out to save you the misery of the inevitable?

[Titty Meat]

Delete if not allowed...

The Surgeon General said the numbers would be high this week. I wish elected officials would point out the CFR as the guiding thing here and tell people give it a few weeks the curve will begin to improve. This would install confidence instead of panic in the country and we will all be closer to getting back to normal life though it could be a few more months.

[AustinChief]

Another figure to look at (if the sites I am looking at are at all accurate).... we are currently at ~80k active known cases with ~2k serious/critical. That gives us 2.5% as the absolute max for serious/critical cases. It is FAR more likely that we are looking at ~2k serious/critical cases and ~500k-800k active cases since so many go untested/unreported/undetected. In which case the number drops to .4-.25% of all cases end up serious or critical. (I think these numbers are actually WAY WAY too high because I think we have far more infected or infected and recovered than we are imagining)

If the number is .4% and we infected almost everyone, we would have something in the range of 1 million people hospitalized in the US for Covid-19. And there are experts who think we will see 1/4 of those people die? Or are these experts claiming that the 80k detected cases is a somewhat accurate figure reflective of how many total US infections there have been since January or December? That would be absolutely ridiculous and I can't imagine anyone being clueless enough to believe that.

[SuperBowl4]

Ever notice that racecar is spelled the same backwards?

[eDave]

Originally Posted by SuperBowl4

Ever notice that racecar is spelled the same backwards?

boob

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Delete if not allowed...

The Surgeon General said the numbers would be high this week. I wish elected officials would point out the CFR as the guiding thing here and tell people give it a few weeks the curve will begin to improve. This would install confidence instead of panic in the country and we will all be closer to getting back to normal life though it could be a few more months.

the main lesson historians learned from the 1918 Spanish flu was to tell the truth. Every government downplayed or hid their real numbers from the public.

Ironically, the flu didn’t originate in Spain. Spain was the only country that told the truth at the beginning. Hence it was named after them.

[Hammock Parties]

Death rate is going down, at least for today



Source:

Total reported US coronavirus deaths via @CNN:

3/1: 2
3/2: 6
3/3: 9
3/4: 11
3/5: 12
3/6: 17
3/7: 19
3/8: 21
3/9: 26
3/10: 31
3/11: 38
3/12: 41
3/13: 49
3/14: 58
3/15: 65
3/16: 87
3/17: 111
3/18: 149
3/19: 195
3/20: 263
3/21: 323
3/22: 413
3/23: 541
3/24: 704
3/25: 938
Now: 1,195

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 27, 2020

[BigRedChief]

Dr. Fauci on Trump's Easter coronavirus timeline: "He was making an aspirational projection to give people some hope. But he's listening to us when we say we've really got to reevaluate it in real-time and any decision we make has to be based on the data."

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 27, 2020