***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

I’m not all gloom and doom, but it’s time to take off the Rose colored glasses off and start looking at this seriously. Grateful I live in the us and no the European Union, South America or China. When it’s all said and done our country would have handled this properly by making sure people that need it get ventilators and icu beds. Those other places can’t mass produce like we can.

I don't know of anyone seeing this through rose colored glasses.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I don't know of anyone seeing this through rose colored glasses.

Pete must not talk to Buc and Taco.

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

Pete must not talk to Buc and Taco.

To be fair OH you are on the other side of the spectrum. US is doing a better job of mitigating this than you are giving them credit for.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

To be fair OH you are on the other side of the spectrum. US is doing a better job of mitigating this than you are giving them credit for.

in some stats I will agree.

But I want one direction treating each state like little empires isn't going to work in the long run.


WA and Ohio have been rocking.

[oaklandhater]

[oaklandhater]

#Breaking
Atlanta Mayor says ICU units are at capacity. @CBS46 #Coronavirus pic.twitter.com/l0fKdh8nYm

— shon gables cbs46 (@shongables) March 24, 2020

shit getting bad in Atlanta

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We had 225 new deaths today. over half of those from the most densely populated area in the country.

You have to have some context on this.

How many deaths per day was Italy having 2 weeks ago, when people said that the US would be at that amount in 2 weeks? I can’t get the numbers right now and am curious.

Pretty sure the US had a total of less than 40 deaths at that time total.

[Hammock Parties]

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by petegz28

It's almost like you aren't happy unless you are painting a doom and gloom scenario with every one of your posts.

you want to bury your head in the sand, stick your fingers in your ears, go start a new sunshine and rainbows thread.

Originally Posted by petegz28

I don't know of anyone seeing this through rose colored glasses.

you are pal. The news is bad. People need to know the facts.
Things are not going well. Health care workers taking care of victims are now dying because they don’t have masks. That’s a god damn tragedy that didn’t have to happen. People need to know the facts.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

you want to bury your head in the sand, stick your fingers in your ears, go start a new sunshine and rainbows thread.

you are pal. The news is bad. People need to know the facts.
Things are not going well. Health care workers taking care of victims are now dying because they don’t have masks. That’s a god damn tragedy that didn’t have to happen. People need to know the facts.

REP trying to downplay this does no one any good.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by petegz28

We had 225 new deaths today. over half of those from the most densely populated area in the country.

You have to have some context on this.

You talk about those lives like you are talking about some dead ants or something. These are American citizens w families.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Looks like in my little town the hoarding is slowing down. Starting to see the stores catch back up. 6 confirmed cases in amarillo and 1 death

[carlos3652]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Looks like in my little town the hoarding is slowing down. Starting to see the stores catch back up. 6 confirmed cases in amarillo and 1 death

Good news on that front

People are no longer panic buying as much and grocery stores are hiring more people to ensure their aisles are stocked.

I think the selfishness was taken down a notch. At least here locally.

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

you want to bury your head in the sand, stick your fingers in your ears, go start a new sunshine and rainbows thread.

you are pal. The news is bad. People need to know the facts.
Things are not going well. Health care workers taking care of victims are now dying because they don’t have masks. That’s a god damn tragedy that didn’t have to happen. People need to know the facts.

Not from you they dont.


You're a ****ing loon..

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by carlos3652

I’m not all gloom and doom, but it’s time to take off the Rose colored glasses off and start looking at this seriously. Grateful I live in the us and no the European Union, South America or China. When it’s all said and done our country would have handled this properly by making sure people that need it get ventilators and icu beds. Those other places can’t mass produce like we can.

There will be around 341 deaths tomorrow.

There will be around 3800 deaths in the coming week.

Less sure but tracking to see 20,000 deaths next week.

It is math. It’s actually fairly easy to track since it’s based on trends built on hundreds of thousands of cases. You can take death rates from almost any country and work it backwards using this math.

All of the variables Pete is citing are not necessarily wrong, they just don’t factor in a meaningful way into the numbers that will determine how many people will be hospitalized, require life support, and die. Age/etc hasn’t proven to be as much of a factor as maxing out the health care system. Again, the math clearly shows this.

I said last week that people just can’t comprehend yet what’s about to hit. But the math is super easy:

Takes on average 8 days from infection to death.

The current death rate of reported cases is around 12.2% (we actually saw 9 more people than I predicted yesterday).

When the health care system is overwhelmed like in Italy that rate goes up to as high as 24%.

The 11,000+ who were infected today will result in approximately 1,352 deaths a week from now.

It is just math.