***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Italy is the only country with over 3,800 deaths assuming you believe China. They have proven to be quite the anomaly. We are closer to South Korea than we are Italy. I don't know where people get the idea that will somehow pass everyone one else in the world and have 3,800 deaths by next week when no where else in the world save Italy has had that.

I think it's a little early to call any country and "anomaly"

[stevieray]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

This thread appears to be the "its only OK to spew end of the world opinions and stories thread" rather than a non political one.

....this thread does have a ghoulish feel to it at times.

[RINGLEADER]

And I should add the current rate of .122 is based on a functional health care system.

The numbers from Italy, where they have maxed out their system, that death rate within the target segment is nearly twice the .122 we’re experiencing currently.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Italy is the only country with over 3,800 deaths assuming you believe China. They have proven to be quite the anomaly. We are closer to South Korea than we are Italy. I don't know where people get the idea that will somehow pass everyone one else in the world and have 3,800 deaths by next week when no where else in the world save Italy has had that.

Yet people post opinion articles here with claims of deaths of a million in the US alone and when called out for the obvious bullshit stats the article is using they call that person a liar and wrong.

[kcxiv]

Originally Posted by TambaBerry

So people are getting forms that say they can be moving around??? I didn't think this was a total lockdown

naw, my dad is a diabetic and just recently had surgery. His VA doctor said he cannot leave the house and get it, chances are he wont live through it.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

It absolutely is math. The only variables we control are the R0 and the number of ventilators we have.

This was true last week and it will be true next week.

Hopefully the drugs work. Hopefully we get more ventilators. But absent that the numbers are going up.

Just look at today. 10,000+ new cases. How many of those people do you think are going to die? Then go back 8 days and apply that percentage to the total new cases from 8 days ago. See the problem in your thinking?

How many of those 10,000 cases are mild? How many of those cases are people at risk? The only reason the number of cases is higher that it was 8 days ago is because we tested. We are still running at well below half the global death rate.

See the problem in your math? You're being too ****ing literal. There are countless variables you are not and are unable to take in. If I had to take a guess I would say of the 10,000 cases 125 will die bases on current death rate.

Your math assumes nothing but continuation along a linear curve with 0 variables.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by petegz28

It isn't. I have no idea why people are getting these letters. My Wife got one and I have no concern over it all and told her she will never, ever have to use it.

There just aren't enough law enforcement agents to enforce such an act throughout the whole country. Sure, maybe they can cut off particular cities or regions, but containing the entire country would be impossible

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

And I should add the current rate of .122 is based on a functional health care system.

The numbers from Italy, where they have maxed out their system, that death rate within the target segment is nearly twice the .122 we’re experiencing currently.

The number from Italy also includes a ton of people who were probably going to die in the next few months as it was, unfortunately.

You are not considering any sort of variables at all.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I think it's a little early to call any country and "anomaly"

Italy is a ****ing anomaly by the very definition.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s just starting everywhere else

Really? You sure about that?

[Chief Roundup]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Yet people post opinion articles here with claims of deaths of a million in the US alone and when called out for the obvious bullshit stats the article is using they call that person a liar and wrong.

Dude stop this stuff. You both need to knock it off or you both should be removed from this thread.
It is getting real old that when I come in here you are attacking him when he is not here or you both are going back and forth at each other.
No one wants to read/hear this stupid bickering that you both are doing. JMO but both you are acting like a couple of little children or women that are on that cycle and the other is the ex spouse that found someone sexier than they ever were.
NOW SHUT THE **** UP AND MOVE ON OR GET THE **** OUT!!!!!

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by loochy

There just aren't enough law enforcement agents to enforce such an act throughout the whole country. Sure, maybe they can cut off particular cities or regions, but containing the entire country would be impossible

It would be futile, are they to stop every car they see driving to see whats up?

Of course not duh.

[RINGLEADER]

I respect everyone on here who wants to say they believe something else — I’m just telling you that the math might be off a point here or there but is otherwise provable from a lot of statistics that are sitting right in front of all of us.

Everywhere there is a real lockdown there is a 10-14 day period of exponential growth baked in. Between 12%-13% of those people will die based on the math. If we do a better job of slowing the spread the overall group that is subject to that fraction goes down. There is a number (when the health care system becomes maxed out) that the percentage of the overall group of new infected rises. By keeping the first number low we will keep the second number low.

None of this is exact of course. But to say we won’t have more deaths then some other country ignores the data to date.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by TambaBerry

My work is deemed essential but I'm working from home. I need to go to the office at some point to get some shit I need. Was just wondering what the **** that's about

Stay safe my guy my job is the same but I have to go in. Their brilliant idea was to let half stay off for a few weeks and we'll rotate. So instead of 4k in theres only 2k.

The police chief basically said they arent stopping anyone even if you're speeding but KC never did shit about that anyway lol you're good man I went and got lunch and dinner in OP not a single cop even followed me.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Dude stop this stuff. You both need to knock it off or you both should be removed from this thread.
It is getting real old that when I come in here you are attacking him when he is not here or you both are going back and forth at each other.
No one wants to read/hear this stupid bickering that you both are doing. JMO but both you are acting like a couple of little children or women that are on that cycle and the other is the ex spouse that found someone sexier than they ever were.
NOW SHUT THE **** UP AND MOVE ON OR GET THE **** OUT!!!!!

Put people on ignore or remove yourself. I don't even know what the **** you're bitching about but or ignore people.