***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

In viral terms, probably early January. If this was in China end of November and they didn't know about it til Late December early jan, well I'm guessing it's been out for a while.

Most likely. Our first confirmed case was in the middle of January.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

That should kill all the comparisons. Thanks for sharing.

Except a lot of the data is flat out wrong. I am not going to turn this into another pissing match but that article is full of shit starting with this.

If we experience the same trend with COVID-19, we would have 23,862,575 cases in the beginning of May 2021. With an estimated case fatality rate of 2.3%, that would give 548,839 fatalities worldwide.

And this -


Try going to these 2 links which are CDC websites and you will see the problems with the numbers in the article.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm

and here

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html

Notice the difference in timeline?

June 25
CDC estimated at least 1 million cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza had occurred in the United States.

Donger don't ever give me shit about using info from shitty websites or stories ever again.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Most likely. Our first confirmed case was in the middle of January.

That's why some of the "flying blind" stuff makes sense to me. We need to start serological testing to see who's had it and recovered. If we find that number is pretty high, it's likely we're a lot farther along in this than we thought.

Kinda like with H1N1 we didn't know that many people had gotten it til afterwards when we starting finding "oh shit, this person has antibodies to this, what the hell".

[TLO]

I think this might be a media thing to get younger people to take this more seriously, but I'm really getting tired of these stories that can be summarized like this.

"37 year old fitness instructor gets coronavirus. Has cough and fever for a week. "I felt like shit" - says woman. "We need to be social distancing!"

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Except a lot of the data is flat out wrong. I am not going to turn this into another pissing match but that article is full of shit starting with this.





And this -


Try going to these 2 links which are CDC websites and you will see the problems with the numbers in the article.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm

and here

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html

Notice the difference in timeline?



Donger don't ever give me shit about using info from shitty websites or stories ever again.

I have no desire to engage in proving you wrong again here. If you want to engage me again on this matter, please go to DC, and I will correct you on what data you think is wrong. Thanks.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think this might be a media thing to get younger people to take this more seriously, but I'm really getting tired of these stories that can be summarized like this.

"37 year old fitness instructor gets coronavirus. Has cough and fever for a week. "I felt like shit" - says woman. "We need to be social distancing!"

I'm 32 and pretty active. I eat right, ride my bike a lot etc.

I had a dry cough, fever and the worst body chills of my life in mid February for 9 days.

I'm skeptical that was the flu.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Donger

I have no desire to engage in proving you wrong again here. If you want to engage me again on this matter, please go to DC, and I will correct you on what data you think is wrong. Thanks.

I think posters should be aware when you post articles that inaccurate Donger and that article is way the hell inaccurate.

Feel free to PM me with evidence that links I provided and that data is incorrect.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm 32 and pretty active. I eat right, ride my bike a lot etc.

I had a dry cough, fever and the worst body chills of my life in mid February for 9 days.

I'm skeptical that was the flu.

My Mom thinks she had it. Had a low grade fever, body aches, coughing, and lost her sense of smell and taste for 10 days. She had never lost her sense of smell or taste before in her life.

It makes you wonder.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm 32 and pretty active. I eat right, ride my bike a lot etc.

I had a dry cough, fever and the worst body chills of my life in mid February for 9 days.

I'm skeptical that was the flu.

My girlfriend has COVID symptoms in early to mid February. I almost took her to the hospital for pneumonia. Took her a couple of weeks to start feeling better.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I think posters should be aware when you post articles that inaccurate Donger and that article is way the hell inaccurate.

Feel free to PM me with evidence that links I provided and that data is incorrect.

If you want to engage me again on this matter, please go to DC, and I will correct you on what data you think is wrong. Thanks.

And for the record for those not familiar with Marcellus' inability to admit being wrong, he still thinks a certain leader did not withhold aid from a country, because he eventually released said aid. Even when presented with a quote from said leader acknowledging that he withheld aid, Marcellus refuses to admit his error.

I'm giving that before any of you not familiar with him decide to waste your time.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm 32 and pretty active. I eat right, ride my bike a lot etc.

I had a dry cough, fever and the worst body chills of my life in mid February for 9 days.

I'm skeptical that was the flu.

Originally Posted by TLO

My Mom thinks she had it. Had a low grade fever, body aches, coughing, and lost her sense of smell and taste for 10 days. She had never lost her sense of smell or taste before in her life.

It makes you wonder.

Originally Posted by dirk digler

My girlfriend has COVID symptoms in early to mid February. I almost took her to the hospital for pneumonia. Took her a couple of weeks to start feeling better.

I wish we had the test readily available to tell. It would ease a lot of people's worries - and allow many people to go back to work.

Influenza A was knocking people around pretty good for a couple of months though.

[TLO]

So I don't want to make this political whatsoever, but a certain high ranking political figure in our country wants things to put people back to work around Easter.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by TLO

So I don't want to make this political whatsoever, but a certain high ranking political figure in our country wants things to put people back to work around Easter.

I like the goal but hate the concept of setting a date certain. We have no idea if the steps taken to date are working. But I do think talking about this possibility is a good thing (as I said from the beginning they should have just turned off the country for two months when this first hit Seattle and NY in a meaningful way).

[DJ's left nut]

"I would love to have the country opened up....by Easter."

So would I. So would everyone else.

This is no sort of referendum on anything.

Bottom line is that he can't do it anyway. These are state/local orders that he has no ability to roll back.

It's not a date certain. It's not a deadline. It's not...anything.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

"I would love to have the country opened up....by Easter."

So would I. So would everyone else.

This is no sort of referendum on anything.

Bottom line is that he can't do it anyway. These are state/local orders that he has no ability to roll back.

It's not a date certain. It's not a deadline. It's not...anything.

Yep.