***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by displacedinMN

Wisconsin instituted a safer at home order. Non essentials closed. Limited trips out. Still some confusion.

17-18 states now have mandatory stay at home orders.


45K positive tests in the USA
21K in NY alone
550+ deaths in the USA

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

That level of infection hasn't happened anywhere else, not even remotely close.

With our lack of testing mild and asymptomatic cases, we dont' really know if it has.

We will need to start running serology tests to check for immune responses and who has antibodies to this to really figure it out.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

With our lack of testing mild and asymptomatic cases, we dont' really know if it has.

We will need to start running serology tests to check for immune responses and who has antibodies to this to really figure it out.

One thing to keep in mind S Korea tested a shit ton of people and I think 96% were negative.

[mdchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Monticore

So if new york keeps getting a high number of positives in the next few days it’s not a good sign because it won’t be due increased testing but more hospitalizations. Let’s hope numbers are low.

I think we are already seeing reduced reports due to lack of testing. The curve appears to be flattening out, but I doubt it is from successful prevention.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

With our lack of testing mild and asymptomatic cases, we dont' really know if it has.

We will need to start running serology tests to check for immune responses and who has antibodies to this to really figure it out.

How practical is that to roll out on s large scale?

[JakeLV]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm still trying to understand why SARS v1.0 didn't have anywhere near the impact here or globally that SARS v2.0 already has.

1.0 was less infectious. I’ll look for the article, but something like 1/10 or 1/100 the amount of virus was in the throats in 1.0 vs 2.0, so it didn’t have the ability to spread like this one.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by mdchiefsfan

I think we are already seeing reduced reports due to lack of testing. The curve appears to be flattening out, but I doubt it is from successful prevention.

Is there a curve that means more than deaths? No way we will know who is walking around with no symptoms but we will know who dies from it so that number is a pretty solid indicator.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm still trying to understand why SARS v1.0 didn't have anywhere near the impact here or globally that SARS v2.0 already has.

To be honest, we got lucky. IIRC, it burned out quickly or mutated to a less severe version.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

How practical is that to roll out on s large scale?

Which part?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by BWillie

We are going to eventually take over Italy for the most coronavirus cases.

USA USA USA USA

Originally Posted by TLO

Well, we have a lot of people in the USA USA

330 million


We may zoom past China and their 1.4 BILLION citizens before this is all over

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

330 million


We may zoom past China and their 1.4 BILLION citizens before this is all over

Depends.

If this is going the way it is, China was lying about their numbers.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

330 million


We may zoom past China and their 1.4 BILLION citizens before this is all over

That's going to take one hell of a baby boom.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by JakeLV

1.0 was less infectious. I’ll look for the article, but something like 1/10 or 1/100 the amount of virus was in the throats in 1.0 vs 2.0, so it didn’t have the ability to spread like this one.

Yet it had an R0 of 2.2

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yet it had an R0 of 2.2

I've read some things coming out of South korea and japan where they think this may have an R0 of 5.5/6. That's wild.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by mdchiefsfan

I think we are already seeing reduced reports due to lack of testing. The curve appears to be flattening out, but I doubt it is from successful prevention.

Most are saying its going to peak in 1-3 weeks here in the USA. Whenever it occurs, that's when we will know how overwhelmed the hospitals got or will get.