***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY

And there goes our economy and life.

12k people die globally out of 7.7B Really?

What if it was 1k times worse in the end? It's still be less than half the numbers of 1918 with population that far exceeds what it was back then.

Have you ever divided 12M by 7.7B?

You can listen to the media endlessly from a medical and financial perspective and you will never be given real information on any level especially when it come to the math. Something isn't right.

Exponential math. I'll try to help out, again. COVID-19 is in the same family of Coronaviruses that cause common colds. How many people get a common cold each year? Just about everybody. Adults average 2-4 a year. If you are really lucky. Maybe you don't get a cold during the cold and flu season.

We can estimate that at least 90% of our population of 330,000,000 will get a Coronavirus each year. As we know, there was a novel H1N1 virus outbreak in 2009. The scare of that was that it was more potent to younger people than the regular flu. An estimated 61 million people contracted the novel H1N1 in a one year period in 2009 in the United States.

As we know, Covid-19 is AT LEAST twice as contagious as H1N1 was. Swine Flu/H1N1 infected 61 million US ppl and being COVID-19 is even more contagious it could easily infect at bare minimum 125 million people of our population.

125,000,000 (the lowest potential amount of infections) x 1% (the lowest acceptable mortality rate) = 1,250,000 minimum deaths if we just, you know. Do nothing. When compared to the swine flu which killed only about 13,000 in the USA.

Being a vaccine may even take 18-months. This number could even be greater. This ALSO doesn't account for the strain on our health care system. The lack of ventilators that would be available. The lack of ICU beds. If you accounted for all of that the mortality rate would go up, as we are seeing in other countries that have had their health care system be overloaded.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

[Monticore]

I forgot to mention earlier about n95 , it Is not 1 style fits all, we get fitted every year where we sit under a hood and check to see if we can taste the sugary solution they spray under the hood doing various movements etc. Having a beard also reduces effectiveness.i am sure a test could be macgivered at home.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Donger

Following you? Don't be silly. You post here. I post here. But, I'll gladly not respond to your posts. As long as you don't keep being a dick.

Thanks.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I forgot to mention earlier about n95 , it Is not 1 style fits all, we get fitted every year where we sit under a hood and check to see if we can taste the sugary solution they spray under the hood doing various movements etc. Having a beard also reduces effectiveness.i am sure a test could be macgivered at home.

This is correct.

Also, healthcare providers have resorted to wearing surgical masks because there are not enough n95 masks.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by SupDock

This is correct.

Also, healthcare providers have resorted to wearing surgical masks because there are not enough n95 masks.

One thing for sure after this better start making stuff in the USA again.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

60 days of a California shutdown cancels the NBA and NHL seasons. That's not even debatable.

So many people in sports media are going to lose their jobs.

And it was already a struggling industry.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Nickhead

with many countries calling back it's citizens overseas, doesn't this seem like a bad idea? what if one regioin has more 'carriers' with no symptoms, to an area that is somewhat unaffected by the bug?

If only there was an island full of convicts we could send them to.

[candyman]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Exponential math. I'll try to help out, again. COVID-19 is in the same family of Coronaviruses that cause common colds. How many people get a common cold each year? Just about everybody. Adults average 2-4 a year. If you are really lucky. Maybe you don't get a cold during the cold and flu season.

We can estimate that at least 90% of our population of 330,000,000 will get a Coronavirus each year. As we know, there was a novel H1N1 virus outbreak in 2009. The scare of that was that it was more potent to younger people than the regular flu. An estimated 61 million people contracted the novel H1N1 in a one year period in 2009 in the United States.

As we know, Covid-19 is AT LEAST twice as contagious as H1N1 was. Swine Flu/H1N1 infected 61 million US ppl and being COVID-19 is even more contagious it could easily infect at bare minimum 125 million people of our population.

125,000,000 (the lowest potential amount of infections) x 1% (the lowest acceptable mortality rate) = 1,250,000 minimum deaths if we just, you know. Do nothing. We compared that to the swine flu which killed only about 13,000 in the USA.

Being a vaccine may even take 18-months. This number could even be greater.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

I'm not saying you're full of shit, but when you post stuff like this please provide links.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

Well... I wonder if that's from a backlog in cases though?

Probably. It implies that we're finally getting the testing machine working, regardless, which is a big step.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP

One thing for sure after this better start making stuff in the USA again.

I'm quite confident that reliance on global supply chains for medical supplies is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Exponential math. I'll try to help out, again. COVID-19 is in the same family of Coronaviruses that cause common colds. How many people get a common cold each year? Just about everybody. Adults average 2-4 a year. If you are really lucky. Maybe you don't get a cold during the cold and flu season.

We can estimate that at least 90% of our population of 330,000,000 will get a Coronavirus each year. As we know, there was a novel H1N1 virus outbreak in 2009. The scare of that was that it was more potent to younger people than the regular flu. An estimated 61 million people contracted the novel H1N1 in a one year period in 2009 in the United States.

As we know, Covid-19 is AT LEAST twice as contagious as H1N1 was. Swine Flu/H1N1 infected 61 million US ppl and being COVID-19 is even more contagious it could easily infect at bare minimum 125 million people of our population.

125,000,000 (the lowest potential amount of infections) x 1% (the lowest acceptable mortality rate) = 1,250,000 minimum deaths if we just, you know. Do nothing. When compared to the swine flu which killed only about 13,000 in the USA.

Being a vaccine may even take 18-months. This number could even be greater.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

There’s a lot of wrong in this post. It’s estimated there are at least 200 viruses that cause the common cold. Of those only a few are known coronaviruses that affect people and they make up about 20-30% of cases.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'm quite confident that reliance on global supply chains for medical supplies is going to get a lot of attention in the coming years.

And are wages going to magically raise across the board for people to afford the goods that aren't as cheap as they once were?

[SupDock]

Notice how the CDC guidelines for PPE have changed. They changed from N95 masks for healthcare providers to surgical masks being acceptable. Look at the PPE in China vs the PPE being used here.

[rockymountainchief]

Thought this might be of interest.

For the past five weeks, infectious disease researchers from institutions around the United States have been taking a survey that gathers their thoughts on the trajectory of the COVID-19 virus. The researchers come from academia, government and industry, and are experts in modeling the spread of viruses like this one:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...to-get-either/

[Donger]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Notice how the CDC guidelines for PPE have changed. They changed from N95 masks for healthcare providers to surgical masks being acceptable. Look at the PPE in China vs the PPE being used here.

Pete says masks don't do jack shit anyway. Stop listening to the media!