Worst Case 1st Round

[Chargem]

Whats the worst case result that the Chiefs could realistically actually do in the first round, in your opinion, and how would you feel about it if it happened? You can include trades.

I think my worst case that I can see the Chiefs actually doing is:

29. Skyy Moore
30. Travis Jones

How would I feel about this?

Actually pretty fine. It would just feel a bit underwhelming.

[TambaBerry]

Originally Posted by Dante84

A WR in the first round who is not named Williams, Olave, Wilson, London or Burks

A DE in the first round who is not named Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, Johnson, Walker, Ojabo, Karloftis or Ebiketi

An IDL in the first round who is not named Wyatt or Davis

Any OT in the first round who is not named Ikwonu, Neal, Cross or Penning.

Winfrey would be an awesome get in the 1st

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chargem

I'm going to let you into a secret. Half of them hit when you are picking at 15 too.

Yup.

Let's say you have a 50% success rate at 29 and 30. And let's be generous and say that you have a 70% success rate at 15.

Your odds of getting a successful player w/ 2 50/50 efforts is better than your odds of getting one with a single 70% effort.

And again, that 70% is fudging the numbers by a fair amount - your odds ain't that good.

There's no good reason to trade package those picks together at all. Historically it's been a losing gamble.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The worst case for me is to trade up for Jameson Williams and then draft Ojabo at 30.

Zero impact WR until the last 3rd of the season and a guy that won't play until 2023 with huge question marks looming over his future.

Other than that, they could pretty much draft any players most boards have in the top 60 and I'd feel okay about it.

I have zero issues with trading up if it's to get a guy they think will be an instant impact.

lol THIS is actually exactly what I want actually. My theory is that we're talented enough to wait for these high-talent players to heal up and get up to speed later in the year, or even next year if necessary. I'm confident that our current roster can take us to the playoffs, I'm looking for high-impact draft steals to take us over the top!

[Wilson8]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I'd be pretty underwhelmed.

A small, slow WR and a space eater DT?

Yeah, that's a no for me, dawg.

WR Skyy Moore might be our pick, but I really think if the best WRs, CBs, and Edge guys have been drafted before 29, then a really good DT or OT will fall to us. Not the most critical need, but still important and would improve the Chiefs.

Skyy is not a burner, but he did run a 4.41, 40 and has really good hands, so I would be OK if KC and the draft went that way

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think it’s gonna cost more than 2 first rd picks to move up as far as people are talking.

29, 30 and probably 94 if people want to move up around 10-15

If you use the Atlanta trade from 2011 to go from 26 to 6 as a benchmark, the Standard model suggests 29+30+103 as equivalent to go from 29 to 8, and the Hill model suggests 29+30+135. The 26 to 6 had a premium of an extra 30 points in the Hill model (chart 446, actual 476, 6.7% premium) and was under in the standard by 96 points (1600 chart, 1504 actual, 6% discount).

In referencing the Chiefs trade from 27 to 10 in 2017, the Chiefs paid a lesser premium (3.2% vs 6.7%) using the Hill model than Atlanta paid to go to 6 in 2011 and the discount using the Standard model was roughly the same (5% vs 6%). I think it's safe to adjust that 103 downward from above to either 121 (4.4% premium) or 135 (2.7% premium) to go from 29 to 8.

So, splitting the differences on everything it's 29+30+121 to go to 8 with Atlanta to get ahead of Seattle for Thibodeaux. I'd be tempted to swap out 121 with the 2023 comp 3rd for Poles and keep 121 for this year.

A resounding yes for me to get Thibodeaux if that's the trade.

Thibodeaux, for me, is the draft's absolute best pass-rushing talent and I feel like he has elite upside.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by kccrow

If you use the Atlanta trade from 2011 to go from 26 to 6 as a benchmark, the Standard model suggests 29+30+103 as equivalent to go from 29 to 8, and the Hill model suggests 29+30+135. The 26 to 6 had a premium of an extra 30 points in the Hill model (chart 446, actual 476, 6.7% premium) and was under in the standard by 96 points (1600 chart, 1504 actual, 6% discount).

In referencing the Chiefs trade from 27 to 10 in 2017, the Chiefs paid a lesser premium (3.2% vs 6.7%) using the Hill model than Atlanta paid to go to 6 in 2011 and the discount using the Standard model was roughly the same (5% vs 6%). I think it's safe to adjust that 103 downward from above to either 121 (4.4% premium) or 135 (2.7% premium) to go from 29 to 8.

So, splitting the differences on everything it's 29+30+121 to go to 8 with Atlanta to get ahead of Seattle for Thibodeaux. I'd be tempted to swap out 121 with the 2023 comp 3rd for Poles and keep 121 for this year.

A resounding yes for me to get Thibodeaux if that's the trade.

Thibodeaux, for me, is the draft's absolute best pass-rushing talent and I feel like he has elite upside.

It's just my opinion...but I think Carolina might also have to accept less in return because of the situation they're in. Everyone knows they need a QB and they pick at 6 and then not again until the 4th round.

[BossChief]

There’s talk that Williams will be back by training camp.

He’s young and these are routine surgeries and rehabs by now.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by BossChief

There’s talk that Williams will be back by training camp.

He’s young and these are routine surgeries and rehabs by now.

Which means he won't be anywhere close to when we pick....and it's still dumb to trade a bunch of picks for him.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

It's just my opinion...but I think Carolina might also have to accept less in return because of the situation they're in. Everyone knows they need a QB and they pick at 6 and then not again until the 4th round.

If I were them, I'd have a tough time moving out of that slot, honestly. If Willis and Pickett are both gone, I'm taking Cross at LT and I'll worry about the rest later. It's hard to get LT's outside the top 18 picks and they need one badly.

Just ride that horse you chose in Sam Darnold for this year and go get a QB next year (probably with your new HC, lol, although I do like Rhule quite a bit).

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by staylor26

There aren’t many scenarios where I’d want to trade both 1st rounders to move up.

Thibodeaux is absolutely one of the scenarios where I would.

Sign me up.

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I just....man, I could well be wrong, but I don't see this HUGE difference in the top couple of tiers of talent in this draft.

Even the TOP TIER Edges have questions. Thibodeaux might slide?

Look if anyone's even TALKING about that, it's an indication that there are questions about all but maybe like...the top 5 prospects total.

Jameson Williams in the top 15? He probably won't play but maybe the last 3rd of the season. What the hell?

NO QB's worth a first round pick?

I think this is a DEEP draft, but I don't see a huge separation between the supposed TOP GUYS and the second tier guys. All have questions, all require a certain amount of projection. the truly freak athletes are RAW, and the seasoned, ready to go guys all appear to have a ceiling.

I'd prefer to not move up AT ALL, for any of these guys, but if we MUST then I'd prefer it be a small jump just because Veach and Reid love a particular guy, like a Burks or maybe Karlaftis falls or something. But honestly, I don't see a massive difference in Karlaftis and Cam Thomas to be brutally ****ing honest. They're kind of the same guy.

I see a draft where a lot of guys came back another year to try to break that first round barrier after a covid wash season-and most of them don't do it.

Hell, if we're trading around, let's just trade all of those first 8 picks and bunch 'em all up in the 2nd round. That's where all the talent is, in my opinion.

I see a really blended mix of athletic talent/experience and higher floor guys that are all probably 2nd rounders.

that’s why trading down and then moving up a couple times is highly likely.

I’d even be good with a pick next year to move down if that’s the best value.

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

lol THIS is actually exactly what I want actually. My theory is that we're talented enough to wait for these high-talent players to heal up and get up to speed later in the year, or even next year if necessary. I'm confident that our current roster can take us to the playoffs, I'm looking for high-impact draft steals to take us over the top!

co-sign. Giving up a max of the comp third pick to move up. He will be gone well before that, though.

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Which means he won't be anywhere close to when we pick....and it's still dumb to trade a bunch of picks for him.

I wouldn’t “trade a bunch of picks for him” but I’d entertain swapping draft positions around if the deal made sense.

[RunKC]

This team desperately needs capable starters at DE (2 preferably), CB and WR.

I really want to use those 3 top 50 picks to attack those problem areas

Trade 94, 121 and next years 3rd. Do a pick swap too. Just don’t get ride of your top picks

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by O.city

We can get some good complementary role players. Yippee

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This team desperately needs capable starters at DE (2 preferably), CB and WR.

I really want to use those 3 top 50 picks to attack those problem areas

Trade 94, 121 and next years 3rd. Do a pick swap too. Just don’t get ride of your top picks

How does trading both 1sts and maybe a future 3rd or this year's 4th affect that possibility when DE is the absolute top priority and you still have 4 picks in the top 103 to get CB and WR? CB and WR are the highest bust positions in the 1st round anyhow.

You really want to get wild, package two of those remaining picks to move up again.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by kccrow

How does trading both 1sts and maybe a future 3rd or this year's 4th affect that possibility when DE is the absolute top priority and you still have 4 picks in the top 103 to get CB and WR? CB and WR are the highest bust positions in the 1st round anyhow.

You really want to get wild, package two of those remaining picks to move up again.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all and wouldn’t be too mad if we got a legit player like Jameson Williams.

I think the DE’s will be off the board but Williams, Wilson and Olave will start coming off the board at 10.

Maybe a trade with Seattle for 29,30 and next years 3rd. It would still give us 4 picks on day 2 and 2 more to start day 3.

It seems so like Veach to do that too. Plus Seattle is always wanting more picks and will need it to build that team.

[Chargem]

I could get behind both 1sts for Thibs, thats the only trade up I really love.

I wouldn't mind getting Williams, I think the offense will be up there with the best again with the current players, its not desperate for anyone this year.

Its the defense that could ideally do with 1-3 first year contributors