***Official 2023 STL Cardinals Thread ***

[BigRedChief]

2023 thread. Walker makes the roster. I'll update the rosters and opening day lineup when its official

2023 Opening Day Lineup

Spoiler!

Donovan 2B
Nootbar RF
Goldschmidt 1B
Arenado 3B
Wilson Contreras C
Tyler O'Neill LF
Gorman DH
Jordan Walker RF
Tommy Edman SS

2022 Opening Day roster.

Spoiler!

The Cardinals anticipated 26-player Opening Day roster projects as follows, but will not become official until Thursday, March 30:
PITCHERS (13): Jack Flaherty-RHP, Giovanny Gallegos-RHP, Ryan Helsley-RHP, Jordan Hicks-RHP, Steven Matz-LHP, Miles Mikolas-RHP, Jordan Montgomery-LHP, Packy Naughton-LHP, Andre Pallante-RHP, Chris Stratton-RHP, Zack Thompson-LHP, Drew VerHagen-RHP, and Jake Woodford-RHP;
CATCHERS (2): Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner;
INFIELDERS (6): Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Taylor Motter;
OUTFIELDERS (5): Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and Jordan Walker;
INJURED LIST (3): Paul DeJong-INF, Wilking Rodríguez-RHP, Adam Wainwright-RHP.

For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year, here are some of the historical threads going back to 2006.

Spoiler!

2022 thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...8#post16877588
2021 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=337124
2020 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=329273
2019 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239
2018 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812
2012 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=254619
etc.
All the way back to 2006 WS
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

FWIW, Goldschmidt's bat is showing serious signs of slowing down this year. They need to have a conversation about dealing him while he still has some value.

doesn’t he have a no trade clause?

[jd1020]

I'm curious to know where Goldschmidts bat is showing serious signs of slowing down. All of his advanced numbers are in line or better than career numbers. The only thing that seems odd so far this season is his success against fastballs but then you compare his expected results against prior years and he's improved.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

I'm curious to know where Goldschmidts bat is showing serious signs of slowing down. All of his advanced numbers are in line or better than career numbers. The only thing that seems odd so far this season is his success against fastballs but then you compare his expected results against prior years and he's improved.

Goldschmidt is fine - his bat has never been cat quick.

But ultimately that's exactly WHY he should be traded. He'll be extension eligible at 37 yrs old and the team has a half-dozen guys who's best defensive position is probably 1b. The 'outfield logjam' is born of sticking guys like Yepez and Walker out there who have noplace else to play. Or Gorman at 2b, displacing Donovan and/or Edman.

Freeing up 1b is how you get some of these 'logjams' to free up a bit from a defensive perspective.

Moreover, Goldschmidt is still a good player with 1+ years left on his deal. An acquiring team gets 2 post-season runs from him at a relatively strong AAV. His base salary is only $22 million and that's prorated this season so we're talking about roughly $36 million over the next season plus to get the reigning NL MVP in your lineup for the post-season. That's a pittance from a financial perspective.

So if extending him makes little sense and you're not a viable post-season team (even if you do manage to sneak in given a lousy NL Central), then why shouldn't you trade him at the highest his value will be?

Goldschmidt, Montgomery and Flaherty are 3 guys who should be moved without a moments hesitation. All 3 should be on the market at the moment and you should be looking for higher ceiling players in A+ or if you're lucky AA.

The team doesn't need anymore fungible 2 WAR players - we have plenty of those. Trade your assets for high end lottery tickets like the Rays did with Junior Caminaro a couple years back. Try to get 3-4 of them and hope 1-2 of them pay off.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

doesn’t he have a no trade clause?

You think he's content playing out the string here?

[DJ's left nut]

If you're Goldschmidt, last season's MVP puts you on the HoF radar.

He now has 4 top 3 finishes plus a win there. He has 7 All Star appearances and 4 GGs to go with 5 silver sluggers. He'll probably get to 400 career HRs and maybe 1400 career RBI and Rs.

He has a chance to break into the top 100 in career WAR.

All he's missing to firm up that case is a post-season pedigree of note. He's played in one NLCS in his career and was, frankly, embarrassingly bad against Washington. He was a complete disaster.

So if you're Goldschmidt, if a team like NY comes calling, you absolutely waive that NTC. Philly has the talent to do damage and no 1b, even if they're underperforming. But the upshot to that kind of deal is that he can rack up MASSIVE stats in that ballpark and knows Philly will continue to spend to try to address shortcomings and give him a platform for post-season success.

Goldschmidt would be nuts not to accept a trade if it meant giving him a chance to further his HoF resume. The MVP absolutely opened that window for him - he has a real shot now.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You think he's content playing out the string here?

No chance is he content with the way things are right now. Flaherty should be the 1st one traded. He's actually pitching fairly well so hopefully they could get a return for him. Mo said on TV over the weekend that they aren't selling.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

No chance is he content with the way things are right now. Flaherty should be the 1st one traded. He's actually pitching fairly well so hopefully they could get a return for him. Mo said on TV over the weekend that they aren't selling.

His stuff is kinda decent at this point, though his command is still a disaster.

As a pending FA, you won't get much for him. Certainly nothing with ceiling that's close.

But you could get a couple of Ian Bedell/Victor Scott II types with some strong tools who haven't broken out yet. Maybe they never do and they just end up organizational filler. But at least if they DO break out, they'll be able to be strong contributors.

A Joshua Baez total wild card would be about as well as you can expect them to do. Someone with tools for days who's probably 3 to 1 against to ever so much as perform in AAA.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

His stuff is kinda decent at this point, though his command is still a disaster.

As a pending FA, you won't get much for him. Certainly nothing with ceiling that's close.

But you could get a couple of Ian Bedell/Victor Scott II types with some strong tools who haven't broken out yet. Maybe they never do and they just end up organizational filler. But at least if they DO break out, they'll be able to be strong contributors.

A Joshua Baez total wild card would be about as well as you can expect them to do. Someone with tools for days who's probably 3 to 1 against to ever so much as perform in AAA.

Honestly if it means unloading Jack I'd take it. I can't stand that whiny entitled POS.

[DJ's left nut]

In Today's 'logjam chronicles' - your CF for the "too many outfielders to find playing time for" Cardinals is....Tommy Edman. Your Gold Glove middle infielder.

This team is just stupid.

It's fans even moreso for buying this bullshit.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

In Today's 'logjam chronicles' - your CF for the "too many outfielders to find playing time for" Cardinals is....Tommy Edman. Your Gold Glove middle infielder.

This team is just stupid.

It's fans even moreso for buying this bullshit.

Oli saw Schildt get fired for running the team the right way. He must just figure "**** it, I've got to blaze a new trail here or lose my job!"

That's the only plausible explanation.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Goldschmidt's value has declined against all pitches to a degree this season, but his productivity has completely collapsed against fastballs.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Goldschmidt's value has declined against all pitches to a degree this season, but his productivity has completely collapsed against fastballs.

His xBA and xSLG are better against 4-seamers than they were last year. Better against sinkers as well. Frankly, he's CRUSHING sinkers.

It's not velocity that's hurting him - he's on these pitches. His 60% hard hit rate against fastballs would be the highest of his career. He's squaring them up - they're just not finding grass at the moment.

Goldschmidt's not the problem. Arenado's ice cold, but Goldschmidt is hitting balls really damn hard still.

Under the hood, his numbers actually look BETTER than most of his figures from last season and virtually indistinguishable from most of his career numbers. He's fine - pretty much the last guy on the team I'd worry about going forward.

But that's exactly why they should be looking to move him. He has IMMENSE value to a team that needs a quality RH bat who can drive good pitching and provide RH power without an unreasonable K rate. I haven't really done any digging there beyond knowing that the Phil's lost their 1b for the season but I gotta believe there are teams that could really use that. Hell, the Astros are playing Jose Abreu's corpse at 1b and Goldy would be a massive upgrade for them.

I would think you could pretty easily get someone like Jacob Melton for a year+ of Goldschmidt. The maybe someone like Ullola who seems ready to break out but just hasn't yet (stuff is good; command is horrifying - maybe just a relief candidate when it's all said and done).

Who are the Mariners running at 1b? Don't trade with the Rays - they're smarter than you. Orioles have a great farm and I think they're trying to play Santander at 1b. You're not gonna get Cowser but maybe Westburg?

I mean it's moot - the Cardinals are WAY too chickenshit to do it. But they should.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Four-seamer runs above average is negative for the first time since 2014, and his run value is negative despite him seeing about 40 percent of last season's worth of fastballs already. Some of that can be luck, but given the lack of a shift this year, I wonder if xBA needs further calibration since the delta between his results and expectations is so wide.

[DJ's left nut]

literally the only area where's he's below his career norms is that he's swinging and missing just a liiiiiiiitle more. He's at 27.1% there but has routinely been between 26.3 and 26.8 for his career. Barely worth noting.

Meanwhile his expected WOBA is the highest of his career. Expected Slg% is the 2nd highest of his career. xBA is the 2nd highest of his career. Barrel rate is the highest of his career. He's in the 90th percentile or better on vritually every meaningful quality of contact and plate discipline stat there is to find at the moment.

He's roping balls. Don't mess with him a bit - he's going to be just fine.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Four-seamer runs above average is negative for the first time since 2014, and his run value is negative despite him seeing about 40 percent of last season's worth of fastballs already. Some of that can be luck, but given the lack of a shift this year, I wonder if xBA needs further calibration since the delta between his results and expectations is so wide.

Technically, ALL of that can be luck. It's not a predictive stat and doesn't claim to be. It's a snapshot.

And look at his spray charts - 31% to pull, 39% up the middle, 30% opposite field. As good or better a contact distribution than he's ever had in his career - the shift ban won't have created any issues for him.

His average exit velocity on fastballs is 94.5 mph (highest of his career) and his launch angle is 18% on them. That's...pretty much perfect.

There's just not a single thing to dislike about his quality of contact or contact distribution.