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03-17-2020, 09:11 PM | #6016 |
I love your mom
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Sturgeon Falls, Ontario
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Giving people labels just because they have a different opinion or handle situations different than you are in the hope they change their mind and agree with you isn’t very productive. Just need to spend a few minutes in DC to figure that out.
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Posts: 7,064
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03-17-2020, 09:11 PM | #6017 | |
New and Improved
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Springfield, Mo.
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Posts: 21,954
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03-17-2020, 09:11 PM | #6018 | |
testing ... 1, 2, 3
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Tennessee
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And the vast majority of those are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it. Essentially, the Chinese didn't know what they were dealing with until the number of cases involving health-compromised patients went critical. Then there are a bunch of algorithms and charts and stuff that basically describe how ****ed up the Chinese handled this from the get-go. Oh ... and they said this: [Control] measures along with changes in medical care-seeking behavior due to increased awareness of the virus and increased personal protective behavior (e.g., wearing of facemasks, social distancing, self-isolation when sick), likely altered the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak after 23 January. (In other words, things improved after that.) Take care of yourself, Mr. TLO. All will be well. FAX |
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03-17-2020, 09:13 PM | #6019 |
[null]
Join Date: Sep 2008
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Mathematical (Bayesian) model estimates that 86% of ALL Covid cases were unreported/undiagnosed prior to a travel ban/quarantine instituted in Wuhan late January. The model anticipates that the asymptomatic people were "less contagious" but still likely account for 70+% of all transmitted cases after that ban. That's from a cursory read-through. Important to note that this is a *probability* from a mathematical model, not actual data... But it's pretty strong given a tight confidence interval range.
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Posts: 6,647
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03-17-2020, 09:13 PM | #6020 | |
...
Join Date: Nov 2001
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West Virginia was the final state to finally have a case, announced today. They've done like 140 tests. Total. We're finally starting to ramp up testing in this country but it's already too late. That's the problem. You're going to have a whole bunch of mild and asymptomatic people out there spreading this around like wildfire. |
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03-17-2020, 09:13 PM | #6021 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Posts: 40,835
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03-17-2020, 09:14 PM | #6022 |
THE RED MENACE
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Texas
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Posts: 32,449
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03-17-2020, 09:15 PM | #6023 |
Mahomes: We Are All Witnesses
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Miami, FL
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When the entire economy is destroyed to supposedly combat a virus that will only infect a small % of Americans, and will only seriously sicken or kill an even smaller %, that is the ultimate definition of “extreme”.
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Posts: 42,948
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03-17-2020, 09:15 PM | #6024 | |
Wasted away again...
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: in Margaritaville
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That said, I'd like to see this thread maintain a higher level of civility than the norm. There is a lot of good, important information in this thread and I'd rather not see it get lost in the bickering. |
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03-17-2020, 09:15 PM | #6025 | ||
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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03-17-2020, 09:15 PM | #6026 | |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2017
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community spread prior to January 20th in the USA? |
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Posts: 7,381
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03-17-2020, 09:15 PM | #6027 |
THE RED MENACE
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Texas
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Posts: 32,449
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03-17-2020, 09:17 PM | #6028 |
I love your mom
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Sturgeon Falls, Ontario
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Will do.
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Posts: 7,064
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03-17-2020, 09:17 PM | #6029 | |
[null]
Join Date: Sep 2008
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Edit: For clarification, from the article: "Using the best-fitting model (Table 1 and Fig. 1), we estimated 13,118 (95% CI: 2,974–23,435) total new COVID-19 infections (documented and undocumented combined) during 10–23 January in Wuhan city. Further, 86.2% (95% CI: 81.5%–89.8%) of all infections were infected from undocumented cases. Nationwide, the total number of infections during 10–23 January was 16,829 (95% CI: 3,797–30,271) with 86.2% (95% CI: 81.6%–89.8%) infected by undocumented cases." Those numbers form the basis for this Bayesian simulation. Nothing even close to 100,000, let alone ten million. We may ultimately find out that there is some incredibly high R0 for this virus and it just lies dormant in (literally) 99.9% of all who contract it (no data support this), but that is NOT what the cited article suggests. Last edited by Stanley Nickels; 03-17-2020 at 09:24 PM.. |
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Posts: 6,647
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03-17-2020, 09:17 PM | #6030 |
New and Improved
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Springfield, Mo.
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Posts: 21,954
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