***Official 2022 Royals Season Repository Thread***

[ChiefsCountry]

For all things Royals in 2022. #3 minor league system according to Baseball America. The Bobby Witt era should begin this year. Will Salvy still be the homerun king? How does the glut of infield players work out? Will the young pitchers take the next step?

Free Agents/Trades Acquisitions
Zack Greinke, P
Amir Garrett, P
Taylor Clarke, P

Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America
1. Bobby Witt, SS
2. Asa Lacy, P
3. MJ Melendez, C
4. Nick Pratto, 1B
5. Jackson Kowar, P
6. Kyle Isabel, OF
7. Frank Mozzicato, P
8. Ben Kudrna, P
9. Jonathan Bowlan, P
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B

Duncan's Top Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS. MLB.
This status lasts about another 4 weeks, but let’s take a moment to appreciate having the top guy in the minor league prospects lists for at least a little while longer. Witt has prodigious ability and the question is really just IF he can meet it. They have not had a prospect like this in my lifetime, and really probably ever. Combine insane raw physical skills (right there with Adalberto Mondesi and Willie Wilson in the ranks right behind Bo Jackson) with unbelievable work ethic, a humble-but-confident nature, and already having shown he can struggle and overcome to achieve big success, and you have the tools for a show-stopping centerpiece. Oh, and throw in the former-player’s kid aspect on it on top of things, and there is every reason to believe he’s going to succeed and succeed big.
2. M.J. Melendez, C, AAA Omaha.
I was early on putting him in this slot last year, and I don’t regret it. The power, the ability to be a good defender behind the dish as well as having the athletic ability to play 3B or LF, too, and you have a really valuable overall piece and FANTASTIC understudy for Salvador Perez.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP. AA Northwest Arkansas
Whoa, let’s get crazy again. Lacy has outstanding stuff. Top of the system. He got hurt and lost his command during COVID times, but appears to be back on track so far this spring. If his command sticks, this is a guy who can move quickly. And his ceiling is really second to nobody in the minor league pitching ranks.
4. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B. AA Northwest Arkansas
Vinnie starts the season back at AA due to the guy who follows him on the list here. He just hits, folks. I love his combination of contact, loud contact, plate discipline, and lack of strikeouts. The Billy Butler comparisons are annoying (in that I will NEVER refer to this man as Italian Breakfast except in the instance that just occurred), but the Billy Butler comparisons are also fairly apt… if you made Butler a lefthanded hitter, AND improved his body/athleticism from a 20 to a 40, AND if you added that little extra touch of power we all wished Butler could consistently find.
5. Nick Pratto, 1B, AAA Omaha.
Hey, let’s stay at 1B. Pratto has flashy power and I love his batting eye AND his hand-eye coordination. The hair he’s been rocking this spring is also pretty sweet. I slot him just behind Pasquantino simply because I think his bat profile is more volatile. The glove and arm are sweet/plus for 1B, though.
6. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AAA Omaha
Bowlan is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is assuming that recovering is successful. If it his, you’re talking about a big, consistent SP who throws hard enough and has enough of a repertoire to really make things happen. If the recovery goes well, he may be shuttling to the majors in July to reinforce the rotation.
7. Nick Loftin, CF, AA Omaha.
Loftin is a guy who has really grown on me. I saw him as a quasi super-utility guy when the Royals drafted him, The full-time shift to CF (which means they think he has the speed and the overall defensive ability to handle CF in Kansas City) adds a lot of value here. The ultimate positive offensive upside is similar to peak Whit Merrifield, maybe with a touch more early power.
8. Michael Massey, 2B, AA Northwest Arkansas.
Massey was an absolute revelation last year, hitting for power and average and keeping his K rate down while playing a really strong 2B. He has a very sweet, short lefthanded stroke. This is another aggressive rating, but Massey has proven himself through a tough minor league assignment already, and the arrow is pointed up.
9. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Rookie Ball
Kudrna is a big, physical specimen with a lot of upside and potential. The fastball and slider are already nearly MLB-level in terms of velocity and movement (command needs work). Kudrna is a guy who, with luck, and health, and good development, could ascend to the top of a rotation.
10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, Rookie Ball.
Mozzicato has a curveball that suggests he has a feel for spin. If you want to dream, you hope that the next 2-3 years turn the 175 he weighed when drafted into a rock-solid 220/225 and carries with it an increase in fastball velocity from 90-91, sitting 87-88, to 96-97, sitting 93-94. You pair his ability to spin the ball (which also suggests he should be able to easily master a sweeper slider) with that type of fastball velo and a changeup he already has a feel for, and it’s an exciting profile.

He has a little more to go in terms of growing into that projectability than Kudrna, which is why he slots right behind him.
11. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Marsh missed a lot of 2021 to injury, but the hard-throwing righthander is another guy who could move quickly once the minor league season starts. He’s undeniably got the stuff of a quality major-league pitcher. The question is if he can master enough command to cash it in. This guy is a great example of TINSTAAPP.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AAA Omaha
Zerpa might quickly outperform this slot. His stuff ticked up in 21 and he ended the season making a start in the majors. He’s nice depth to have, and honestly, I’m a big fan of just throwing numbers at pitching. Zerpa definitely helps create the depth you need to generate a top-notch and reliable home-grown rotation.
13. Maikel Garcia, SS, AA Northwest Arkansas
Garcia is a really intriguing hitter, a righthanded hitter who has a nice combination of contact skills and control of the strike zone (this cousin of Alcides Escobar is less savvy with the glove and more savvy at the plate). The Royals protected him for a reason (he’s on the 40-man).
14. Carter Jensen, C, A ??
Jensen is a local product whose bat will probably push him off C (as well as the Royals depth at that spot throughout the organization). This is a future 1B profile, and a nice one. He makes a lot of loud contact and shows an ability to lift the ball. Should be fun to watch this year.
15. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A+ Quad Rivers
Hernandez missed a good part of 2021 but still has that butterfly changeup and a classic pitcher’s profile. He’ll need to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary to make it in the bigs, but if not, the fastball velocity and changeup should make him a quality high-leverage reliver.
16. Dylan Coleman, RHP, AAA Omaha
Speaking of relievers, Coleman is a hard-throwing righthander who probably spends most of 22 in the Royals’ pen. ½ of the compensation for the Rosenthal trade a few years back, Coleman has a big fastball and nasty breaking ball.
17. Will Klein, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Speaking of relivers, everything I just said about Coleman? Yeah, you can say it about Klein, too. Klein regularly toyed with hitters at high A last year, striking out 121 hitters in just 70 1/3 innings pitched. For those counting at home, that’s a 15.5 K/9 rate. Yep. That’ll play.
18. Anthony Veneziano, LHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Here’s another big, power arm. Veneziano hasn’t been relegated to bullpen only yet, though. His fastball bumped into the high 90s last year on a starter’s workload. He’s still looking for a changeup, but if he doesn’t find it, you’re looking at a really promising future bullpen fireballer.
19. Erick Pena, OF, A ?
Pena did… not have a strong 2021 full season debut. His struggles look a lot like those of Pratto and Melendez in 2019. Pena has the same type of raw toolkit to work from as those two, with great hands and natural power. He needs to fix a hitch in his swing and calm it down, but so did Melendez. Of this second ten grouping, Pena has the highest upside and could jump right into the top 5 of the org ranks.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A+
Collins is an international signing out of Europe. I like the hitting package here – good eye and contact skills. He needs to make more loud contact, but if he can, really a nice guy.

Overall takeaways:
This is a system with a lot of depth. We could go another 10-12 deep and still be talking about guys with a good shot to make the majors. The changes to the organization’s approach are bearing fruit, as even less-heralded draftees are stepping forward.

The combination of upside (Witt, Melendez, Lacy), depth, and guys you can dream on is fun. It may not produce quite as much as the 2011 group did, but it does offer a more sustainable system, less reliant on a few big-ticket guys.

[poolboy]

Opposite field hitting is a lost art anymore
salvydong has it down

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

Originally Posted by poolboy

Opposite field hitting is a lost art anymore
salvydong has it down

It's a lost art because the worst scrub in the bigs throws 102. Rod Carew would be garbage in this age and so would Ichiro and so would Pete Rose and so would Tony Gwynn. You just don't have the time with 100 mph pitches to diagnose them and change your swing. It doesn't work.

This is why I was so sure that the shift would be banned. There is no adjusting to an endless array of pitchers that throw 100. In those slap hitters day, there was only one guy in the league that threw that hard and that was Nolan Ryan. Nobody slapped a bunch of singles against him, did they?

Every team has 11 Nolan Ryans now. That's why the shift has to be banned.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch

I'm in the process of doing just that. I wrote down a series of predictions that I intend to use as proof. Who did I leave out? Mazzicato? Too young to tell.

So what your saying is you have no proof that Wong or Sullivan can predict every players future projections correctly?

[poolboy]

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch

It's a lost art because the worst scrub in the bigs throws 102. Rod Carew would be garbage in this age and so would Ichiro and so would Pete Rose and so would Tony Gwynn. You just don't have the time with 100 mph pitches to diagnose them and change your swing. It doesn't work.

This is why I was so sure that the shift would be banned. There is no adjusting to an endless array of pitchers that throw 100. In those slap hitters day, there was only one guy in the league that threw that hard and that was Nolan Ryan. Nobody slapped a bunch of singles against him, did they?

Every team has 11 Nolan Ryans now. That's why the shift has to be banned.

disagree

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

So what your saying is you have no proof that Wong or Sullivan can predict every players future projections correctly?

The former is a professional sports bettor and the latter works in the Rays front office but used to work for fangraphs, a publication I have no affiliation with whatsoever.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch

It's a lost art because the worst scrub in the bigs throws 102. Rod Carew would be garbage in this age and so would Ichiro and so would Pete Rose and so would Tony Gwynn. You just don't have the time with 100 mph pitches to diagnose them and change your swing. It doesn't work.

This is why I was so sure that the shift would be banned. There is no adjusting to an endless array of pitchers that throw 100. In those slap hitters day, there was only one guy in the league that threw that hard and that was Nolan Ryan. Nobody slapped a bunch of singles against him, did they?

Every team has 11 Nolan Ryans now. That's why the shift has to be banned.

Agree with you here. Carew, Ichiro, Rose, and Gwynn would all suck ass in today's game. Bunch of slap hitters that look like softball players with the bat and none had even an ounce of power.

They all had ISO's well below league average for the time period in which they played.

Gwynn - .120 ISO and league average was .142
Rose - .106 ISO and league average was .123
Carew - .101 ISO and league average was .121

And the creme de le creme

Ichiro - .091 and league average was .156

Wanna see where those ISO's rank on the all time lists?

Gwynn - 968th
Rose - outside of top 1000
Carew - outside of top 1000
Ichiro - outside of top 1000

Yeah those guys may have been great back in the day, but those guys wouldn't be shit now.

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Agree with you here. Carew, Ichiro, Rose, and Gwynn would all suck ass in today's game. Bunch of slap hitters that look like softball players with the bat and none had even an ounce of power.

They all had ISO's well below league average for the time period in which they played.

Gwynn - .120 ISO and league average was .142
Rose - .106 ISO and league average was .123
Carew - .101 ISO and league average was .121

And the creme de le creme

Ichiro - .091 and league average was .156

Wanna see where those ISO's rank on the all time lists?

Gwynn - 968th
Rose - outside of top 1000
Carew - outside of top 1000
Ichiro - outside of top 1000

Yeah those guys may have been great back in the day, but those guys wouldn't be shit now.

We agree on something, mr. poopybutthole

[poolboy]

Benni is batting 300 hitting to all fields

[PHOG]

Vinnie in the line-up tonight

[BWillie]

This 5.6 ERA pitcher Detroit has os really working us over.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by BWillie

This 5.6 ERA pitcher Detroit has os really working us over.

You do realize that is a Prairie Village kid making a start in his hometown.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

You do realize that is a Prairie Village kid making a start in his hometown.

He's also the player the Royals had lined up in return for a trade for Ian Kennedy, that Glass vetoed because he didn't want to trade Kennedy while eating the remaining contract.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He's also the player the Royals had lined up in return for a trade for Ian Kennedy, that Glass vetoed because he didn't want to trade Kennedy while eating the remaining contract.

That's the Glasses for you. Still nothing was dumber than Danny Boy Glass telling Beltran to take a million less. Lost him over that.

[KChiefs1]

David Lesky:
Lesky’s Notes: Baseball is about to be pushed aside

Football is king in Kansas City, so the Royals are not front page news, but that doesn’t mean we’re not still here!

Spoiler!

This wasn’t true in 2014 or 2015 and to some extent, I suppose, 2013, but the first Chiefs game of the year is one that brings an end to the baseball season for so many. I find it a little odd given that the Chiefs are out there one day a week and the Royals, as frustrating as it can be, are out there just about every day, but that’s the way it goes and has for the majority of my life anyway. I remember being a kid and so annoyed during training camp when videos from a glorified practice would lead off the sports segment on the news and then the Royals score would get a passing reference. I also remember in 1994 while they were on their 14-game winning streak that started on July 23, right around the time that training camp was getting going, the news started giving more and more time to the Royals. And I don’t remember the exact game but it was either the sixth or seventh win in a row that they led with the Royals. I was ecstatic. I don’t know that I have a point here other than that, good or bad, it’s fun when the Royals hold the city. That’s over for now. Hopefully they can do something to make this a two-sport town again once September starts, but hey, at least the Chiefs are still good.

Division help
There are various steps to how teams attack an offseason. Looking back on last offseason, a team like the Dodgers attacks on how to get back to and win the World Series. Teams like the White Sox and Brewers spend the winter figuring out how to take the next step. But teams like the Royals spend the offseason just figuring out how they can rise in their division. As frustrating as it is that 2023 will be seven years removed from their last .500 season, that’s something that is irrelevant within the current vacuum of time in which they play. They are where they are and that can’t be changed (though the architects of the team can…). So the Royals will go into next season looking to compete yes, but relative to 2022, a .500 season would have to be considered a successful one. But where the Royals find themselves in a better situation than any rebuilding team other than the Tigers is that they don’t have to climb nearly as much as the rest. The Rangers and A’s have to deal with the Astros and Mariners. Every team in the AL East has to deal with every other team in the AL East now that Baltimore is winning. The Pirates, Cubs and Reds have good Brewers and Cardinals teams to contend with. The Marlins and Nationals have the Mets and Braves and to a lesser extent, the Phillies. And every team in the NL West has the Dodgers.

The edge is going to be a little bit less next season because they’ll go from playing 19 games against each division opponent to playing 13 and they’ll play everyone, but the teams in the division will all have the same limitations. The question starts to be what you believe this team is. Are they the team on a 75-win pace since June 8? The team on a 70-win pace since the break? The team on a 71-win pace since the deadline? Or are they team on a 66-win pace for the season? And honestly, does it even matter which version they are? Their issues are what their issues are, which are at least fixable if they’re willing to do it. I don’t think it would be the most shocking thing in the world if enough of these rookies they have playing at least semi-regularly come in to next season improving and they actually do something to address the pitching and this team is pretty decent. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see no work done on the pitching and some regression in year two, but if they do progress, it’s worth noting that they may not have to progress that much. I think the Guardians will be better next year and if Tony LaRussa is gone, the White Sox probably will be too, but I don’t see a juggernaut in this division.

Rookies in context

I have a theory that amazing rookie seasons from players like Ronald Acuña, Jr., Juan Soto and others over the last few seasons have skewed our idea of what a rookie should be doing on the field. Since 2015, 22 rookies have accumulated at least 300 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 130 or higher. Of 175 rookies who fit that description, 69 of them had a wRC+ between 90 and 110. Generally, rookies won’t get that many plate appearances and be allowed to fail, so there aren’t a huge amount below that number, but rookies are generally anywhere from fine to solid. Of those 175, 63 of them had an fWAR above 2.0. To be honest, the numbers weren’t quite as mediocre as I expected, but I do think a lot of that is because rookies generally aren’t allowed to flail in the wind. The impetus for this thought is people who seem to be disappointed with what Bobby Witt Jr. has done this season. I’ve fallen into that camp at times. And look, there are things to be disappointed with. The defense has been subpar, specifically at shortstop. A sub-.300 OBP is nothing to be excited about. A walk rate of just over five percent is rough.

But among 63 rookies who have exhausted their eligibility this year, his strikeout rate is actually 24th, which is way better than I think most people would have expected given that the rate is lower than in the minors. His ISO of .192 is 13th best. For a player with his speed, I’d say a .280 BABIP is probably unsustainably low, though he does hit the ball in the air a lot. Still, I’d bet on that rising moving forward. His hard-hit rate is 18th. His barrel rate is 19th. His maximum exit velocity is sixth. I guess what I’m getting at is that I wanted to take a step back from seeing the picture that is only the Royals and look at a bigger picture. It’s 100 percent fair to have expected immediate stardom from Witt as he was the minor league player of the year last season and showed all the signs of being a superstar from the word go, but I think it’s important to realize that he’s still been solid. And as I’ve said before, knowing the kind of worker he is, I’ll be very excited to see how he comes back having had the experience of knowing what does and doesn’t work in the big leagues. He may not become a superstar, but (and again, this might be more of a message to myself), it’s not because he hasn’t been as a rookie. What he’s doing is pretty normal and the talent is still so clearly evident.

The bad team tax

As we barrel toward the offseason, we’re looking toward a winter that is extremely important for the future of the Royals. I wrote this morning on Inside the Crown about the issues with the roster moving forward, and there are plenty. The problems are somewhat good because they actually have talented players to choose from, but as I’ve said before, good problems are still problems. I’ve also written about the team’s payroll and how they should have some money to spend if the right player is available to them, but the issue that they’re going to run into is that they’ll have to pay the bad team tax. Because the reality is that just about every team has money to spend. This isn’t scientific, but if you look at what MLB Trade Rumors predicted for free agents last winter and you see who signed with bad teams, you see the Corey Seager signed for $20 million more than predicted with a bad Rangers team. Kris Bryant signed for a year and $22 million total more with a bad Rockies team. Marcus Semien signed for a year and $37 million more with a bad Rangers team. Javier Baez signed for a year and $40 million more with a bad Tigers team.

It could just be that the guesses were off, but if you look at all of these players, they did all sign for a bit more than expected. And it fell off to the lower levels as well. We’ve seen the Royals pay the tax before with guys like Jose Guillen and Gil Meche. But I wonder how much of that tax applies to their own talent. Bad teams don’t typically get the chance to lock up their young players. Is it for lack of trying or is it because good, young players don’t want to be attached to losing for the long-term? So either the Royals are going to have to overpay some of their own talent or they’re going to have to win and fast. But the way to win fast is probably to overpay some free agent talent. It’s a tough situation they’ve put themselves into because if they do stay on a reasonable timeline from this point forward and get to 82-84 wins in 2024 and make the playoffs in 2025, it’s going to be otherworldly expensive to sign guys like Witt, Melendez and others. The other option is that maybe they get some of the lower-hanging fruit for guys who haven’t made much money in bonuses yet and see if they can’t get Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey or something like that to start a trend. But this is a tax the Royals bad play is going to force them to pay everywhere.

Prospects to watch in 2023

Last year at this time, I wrote about a prospect who I thought would be climbing top-100 lists by this time and that was Nick Loftin. So I understand if you choose to be done with this week’s Notes because I missed on that one. I think there are three players who will find their way on to lists sometime between now and this time next year. They are Tyler Gentry, Gavin Cross and Peyton Wilson. Cross is probably an easy one, though he isn’t even listed on the top-100 by Baseball America. He probably should be above the level he’s playing, but he’s handling it how a prospect who is too good for the level should. I assume he’ll start next year in high-A, but I suppose I won’t be surprised if he goes to AA. He’s an advanced hitter with a good approach and a swing that a scout called a “ten-time All Star” swing after he saw him last week. I also believe he can hold his own in center and play a plus right field, so I wouldn’t be surprise if he really starts to climb some ladders. And all Gentry has done is hit this season. If he isn’t on the big league roster too early to make some midseason lists, I think he’s someone we’ll start to see climb. Wilson has hit .296/.391/.504 with 10 homers and a walk rate of 11.3 percent with a strikeout rate of 22.6 percent since June 1. He’s doing that playing up the middle and playing it well at second and center. He could be a riser next season.

Others of note, in my opinion, are Luca Tresh, Carter Jensen and keep an eye on Emmanuel Reyes, who has pitched well in the Domincan Summer League. One thing that I find interesting is that it feels like the prospect ranking industry isn’t yet giving Royals hitters the benefit of the doubt, which I totally understand. But they seem to consistently be very high on Guardians hitting prospects and have for some time without much in the way of big league results. At some point, if the Royals offensive development continues along the path it’s headed down with results that they’ve had throughout the minors and now starting to permeate the big leagues, I think we’ll start to see some Royals prospects perhaps even overrated. But for now, I like the two I mentioned above with some other options for guys to break through that ceiling next season. And as someone who thought Loftin would be there this year, you can obviously trust my judgment.

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[KChiefs1]

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