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09-09-2022, 03:09 PM | #5701 | |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
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Quote:
I said there are a lot of variables that lead to the extremely wide range of outcomes. Whit Merrifield shouldn't have been as successful a player as he was, based on his tools. He enhanced his body and far out-produced expectations. Could a scout have predicted he'd find a way to put on 25 pounds of muscle? Things like that make it fun. And are why scouts tend to speak in "Ifs" a lot. |
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Posts: 21,436
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09-09-2022, 03:15 PM | #5702 |
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2019
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I mean BWJ was about as sure fire as you can get
Its usually not that easy when you figure in development, work ethic and coaching Royals first round picks are notoriously crap shoots But thats what makes it fun to discuss, I guess if you call a guy a ten time allstar after watching three games and he is...your a genius if he isnt nobody remembers...Bubba was pretty well regarded and thats the downside its easy to cherry pic after the fact |
Posts: 3,026
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09-09-2022, 03:20 PM | #5703 | |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Quote:
The fact that there has only been 3 number 1 overall picks that have made the HOF is proof that projecting these guys' careers is really ****ing hard. |
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Posts: 18,135
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09-09-2022, 03:25 PM | #5704 | |
Starter
Join Date: Aug 2019
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Quote:
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Posts: 536
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09-09-2022, 03:26 PM | #5705 | |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2010
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These guys are playing the best of the best and if they lose just a tiny amount of talent or have one little thing go off balance, then they can go from all star talent to AAAA guy. |
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Posts: 18,135
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09-09-2022, 03:35 PM | #5706 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2021
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Posts: 2,596
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09-09-2022, 03:42 PM | #5707 |
George Brett shit his pants
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: At the Bellagio
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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...fensive-shifts
Huge news about the banning of the shift. Also the potential and likelihood of robot umps at least for balls and strikes would lead us to these conclusions. 1. Groundball hitters are going to see the biggest benefit. You no longer can just be in the right place at the right time. Guys on the Royals who have high GB rates: Nicky Lopez 54% (lol), Ryan OHearn 46% (alot of hard GB contact), Kyle Isbel, Dozier, Pasquantino. Guys who have low GB rates: Nick Pratto 33% (lowest on team of more than 100 AB), Witt Jr. Basically guys that have high hard contact rates and high GB rates are the best candidates to improve. These players would be Pasquantino, Melendez, Perez, Isbel and OHearn. Nobody is going to want to hear this but guys who have a relatively high FB and lower GB % combined with a low or medium hard hit % won't benefit from the shift ban AS MUCH which are Pratto, Witt Jr. And with Nicky Lopez its just a wash. He's lowest of the low in hard contact and highest of thr high on ground ball percentage. 2. Robot umps will favor guys with low chase rates because if there is anything we know about human umps is they call TOO MANY strikes. Robot umps don't care if a pitch is CLOSE enough on two strikes or if its a blowout and they are more inclined to call strikes. Guys with the lowest chase rates will benefit the most. Those guys on the Royals are: Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Vinny Pasquantino. 3. Athletic guys will also have more value. Teams and defenders will rely less on positioning and metrics and more on range. Athleticism at 2B and SS is going to be more important than ever since teams started shifting. I would have to think this favors guys like Witt Jr and Mondesi. 4. Pitch framing will be non-existent with robot umps. And our catchers are dogshit at pitch framing. This will be good for both Perez and Melendez. In conclusion, the players who should benefit the most from these changes in my opinion and in order: MJ Melendez, Vinny Pasquantino, Ryan OHearn, Salvador Perez, Isbel. |
Posts: 48,391
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09-09-2022, 03:55 PM | #5708 |
Debunking your bullshit
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: KC area
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Bill James just had some comments about the shift...here's the 1st tweet in the exchange. He says it causes a 4-5 point net decrease in batting average.
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Posts: 52,592
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09-09-2022, 04:03 PM | #5709 |
MVP
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: NYC
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Banning the shift might save Ryan O’Hearn’s career. I just hope it’s not with us.
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Posts: 7,938
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09-09-2022, 04:06 PM | #5710 | |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Quote:
Pasquantino will be a perennial all star if the injury bug doesn't get him. Melendez is gonna be better than Salvy, but won't be a Royal for life. Pratto is probably a 2 WAR a year player. Massey is gonna be a GG contender at 2nd and probably Whit lite at the plate. Drew Waters will be a bottom of the order hitter and will at least not be a negative WAR guy. Isbel flat out sucks, but will probably be a regular in the lineup for the next few years. This easily changes if Cal is as bad at his job as we think he is. Singer will be the ace of the staff high 2 SP Bubic will be a starter, but back of the rotation. This could change however if he could stopping walking so many people and get the right coach Lynch/Kowar - with the right coaching both could be backend of the bull pen guys at best, but more than likely both will be average bullpen guys. The offense is going to be damn good and this team might compete with the right pitching additions and a competent coaching staff. |
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Posts: 18,135
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09-09-2022, 04:10 PM | #5711 | |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Quote:
I wasn't aware that there was anyone in the world with the ability to actively project how a players career will turn out. I also wasn't aware that there is a person that can accurately predict how stocks will fair. You're a dumbass bro |
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Posts: 18,135
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09-09-2022, 04:12 PM | #5712 | |
Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2021
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Posts: 2,596
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09-09-2022, 04:12 PM | #5713 |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Posts: 18,135
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09-09-2022, 04:16 PM | #5714 |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Posts: 18,135
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09-09-2022, 04:28 PM | #5715 |
Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2021
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Posts: 2,596
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