***Official 2022 Royals Season Repository Thread***

[ChiefsCountry]

For all things Royals in 2022. #3 minor league system according to Baseball America. The Bobby Witt era should begin this year. Will Salvy still be the homerun king? How does the glut of infield players work out? Will the young pitchers take the next step?

Free Agents/Trades Acquisitions
Zack Greinke, P
Amir Garrett, P
Taylor Clarke, P

Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America
1. Bobby Witt, SS
2. Asa Lacy, P
3. MJ Melendez, C
4. Nick Pratto, 1B
5. Jackson Kowar, P
6. Kyle Isabel, OF
7. Frank Mozzicato, P
8. Ben Kudrna, P
9. Jonathan Bowlan, P
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B

Duncan's Top Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS. MLB.
This status lasts about another 4 weeks, but let’s take a moment to appreciate having the top guy in the minor league prospects lists for at least a little while longer. Witt has prodigious ability and the question is really just IF he can meet it. They have not had a prospect like this in my lifetime, and really probably ever. Combine insane raw physical skills (right there with Adalberto Mondesi and Willie Wilson in the ranks right behind Bo Jackson) with unbelievable work ethic, a humble-but-confident nature, and already having shown he can struggle and overcome to achieve big success, and you have the tools for a show-stopping centerpiece. Oh, and throw in the former-player’s kid aspect on it on top of things, and there is every reason to believe he’s going to succeed and succeed big.
2. M.J. Melendez, C, AAA Omaha.
I was early on putting him in this slot last year, and I don’t regret it. The power, the ability to be a good defender behind the dish as well as having the athletic ability to play 3B or LF, too, and you have a really valuable overall piece and FANTASTIC understudy for Salvador Perez.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP. AA Northwest Arkansas
Whoa, let’s get crazy again. Lacy has outstanding stuff. Top of the system. He got hurt and lost his command during COVID times, but appears to be back on track so far this spring. If his command sticks, this is a guy who can move quickly. And his ceiling is really second to nobody in the minor league pitching ranks.
4. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B. AA Northwest Arkansas
Vinnie starts the season back at AA due to the guy who follows him on the list here. He just hits, folks. I love his combination of contact, loud contact, plate discipline, and lack of strikeouts. The Billy Butler comparisons are annoying (in that I will NEVER refer to this man as Italian Breakfast except in the instance that just occurred), but the Billy Butler comparisons are also fairly apt… if you made Butler a lefthanded hitter, AND improved his body/athleticism from a 20 to a 40, AND if you added that little extra touch of power we all wished Butler could consistently find.
5. Nick Pratto, 1B, AAA Omaha.
Hey, let’s stay at 1B. Pratto has flashy power and I love his batting eye AND his hand-eye coordination. The hair he’s been rocking this spring is also pretty sweet. I slot him just behind Pasquantino simply because I think his bat profile is more volatile. The glove and arm are sweet/plus for 1B, though.
6. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AAA Omaha
Bowlan is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is assuming that recovering is successful. If it his, you’re talking about a big, consistent SP who throws hard enough and has enough of a repertoire to really make things happen. If the recovery goes well, he may be shuttling to the majors in July to reinforce the rotation.
7. Nick Loftin, CF, AA Omaha.
Loftin is a guy who has really grown on me. I saw him as a quasi super-utility guy when the Royals drafted him, The full-time shift to CF (which means they think he has the speed and the overall defensive ability to handle CF in Kansas City) adds a lot of value here. The ultimate positive offensive upside is similar to peak Whit Merrifield, maybe with a touch more early power.
8. Michael Massey, 2B, AA Northwest Arkansas.
Massey was an absolute revelation last year, hitting for power and average and keeping his K rate down while playing a really strong 2B. He has a very sweet, short lefthanded stroke. This is another aggressive rating, but Massey has proven himself through a tough minor league assignment already, and the arrow is pointed up.
9. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Rookie Ball
Kudrna is a big, physical specimen with a lot of upside and potential. The fastball and slider are already nearly MLB-level in terms of velocity and movement (command needs work). Kudrna is a guy who, with luck, and health, and good development, could ascend to the top of a rotation.
10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, Rookie Ball.
Mozzicato has a curveball that suggests he has a feel for spin. If you want to dream, you hope that the next 2-3 years turn the 175 he weighed when drafted into a rock-solid 220/225 and carries with it an increase in fastball velocity from 90-91, sitting 87-88, to 96-97, sitting 93-94. You pair his ability to spin the ball (which also suggests he should be able to easily master a sweeper slider) with that type of fastball velo and a changeup he already has a feel for, and it’s an exciting profile.

He has a little more to go in terms of growing into that projectability than Kudrna, which is why he slots right behind him.
11. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Marsh missed a lot of 2021 to injury, but the hard-throwing righthander is another guy who could move quickly once the minor league season starts. He’s undeniably got the stuff of a quality major-league pitcher. The question is if he can master enough command to cash it in. This guy is a great example of TINSTAAPP.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AAA Omaha
Zerpa might quickly outperform this slot. His stuff ticked up in 21 and he ended the season making a start in the majors. He’s nice depth to have, and honestly, I’m a big fan of just throwing numbers at pitching. Zerpa definitely helps create the depth you need to generate a top-notch and reliable home-grown rotation.
13. Maikel Garcia, SS, AA Northwest Arkansas
Garcia is a really intriguing hitter, a righthanded hitter who has a nice combination of contact skills and control of the strike zone (this cousin of Alcides Escobar is less savvy with the glove and more savvy at the plate). The Royals protected him for a reason (he’s on the 40-man).
14. Carter Jensen, C, A ??
Jensen is a local product whose bat will probably push him off C (as well as the Royals depth at that spot throughout the organization). This is a future 1B profile, and a nice one. He makes a lot of loud contact and shows an ability to lift the ball. Should be fun to watch this year.
15. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A+ Quad Rivers
Hernandez missed a good part of 2021 but still has that butterfly changeup and a classic pitcher’s profile. He’ll need to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary to make it in the bigs, but if not, the fastball velocity and changeup should make him a quality high-leverage reliver.
16. Dylan Coleman, RHP, AAA Omaha
Speaking of relievers, Coleman is a hard-throwing righthander who probably spends most of 22 in the Royals’ pen. ½ of the compensation for the Rosenthal trade a few years back, Coleman has a big fastball and nasty breaking ball.
17. Will Klein, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Speaking of relivers, everything I just said about Coleman? Yeah, you can say it about Klein, too. Klein regularly toyed with hitters at high A last year, striking out 121 hitters in just 70 1/3 innings pitched. For those counting at home, that’s a 15.5 K/9 rate. Yep. That’ll play.
18. Anthony Veneziano, LHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Here’s another big, power arm. Veneziano hasn’t been relegated to bullpen only yet, though. His fastball bumped into the high 90s last year on a starter’s workload. He’s still looking for a changeup, but if he doesn’t find it, you’re looking at a really promising future bullpen fireballer.
19. Erick Pena, OF, A ?
Pena did… not have a strong 2021 full season debut. His struggles look a lot like those of Pratto and Melendez in 2019. Pena has the same type of raw toolkit to work from as those two, with great hands and natural power. He needs to fix a hitch in his swing and calm it down, but so did Melendez. Of this second ten grouping, Pena has the highest upside and could jump right into the top 5 of the org ranks.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A+
Collins is an international signing out of Europe. I like the hitting package here – good eye and contact skills. He needs to make more loud contact, but if he can, really a nice guy.

Overall takeaways:
This is a system with a lot of depth. We could go another 10-12 deep and still be talking about guys with a good shot to make the majors. The changes to the organization’s approach are bearing fruit, as even less-heralded draftees are stepping forward.

The combination of upside (Witt, Melendez, Lacy), depth, and guys you can dream on is fun. It may not produce quite as much as the 2011 group did, but it does offer a more sustainable system, less reliant on a few big-ticket guys.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

WTF is a "pitching coordinator"? Typical CP type answer of "someone who coordinates pitching" has already been considered.

The idea would be they’re someone who works with all the pitching coaches to line up the program and create consistency in coaching and approach at each level.

It’s what Drew Saylor was doing on the hitting side.

I have a hard time believing Simpntacci was actually calling the shots, but if he was he was doing a poor job.

Most new school organizations have that person in a management position over all pitching coaches. More old school ones might have the MLB pitching coach give the marching orders and have the coordinator share those across the organization.

I’m not sure how the Royals have structured it, but they’ve never really found the right approach, in my opinion.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

There is a 95% chance Matheny is back next year.

What do you base that on? I have no inside knowledge but I’d guesstimate it’s like 60% he will return. I don’t think losing 94 games is something that just gets glossed over by Sherman. He’s def on the hot seat - look at all the staffing changes we’ve seen this year

[SithCeNtZ]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Depends on what scouting source you’re consuming.

I lean to Baseball Prospectus because it is most in line with the way actual people scouts work.

MLB is much fluffier/positive in general and has a team angle to sell/support.

Basically, the stuff you can get for free tends to be too positive.

I think the key is the sites like MLB never list their actual projection of a guy so people just read into what they want. And most average fans have no idea how to read prospect rankings. They just see "OMG royals #2 prospect! He's #2 and 95th overall so he must have a chance to be an all star!". And in reality the projection there is "average major leaguer at best", but it isn't always explicitly stated like that so people get upset when they don't pan out as an above average player. The average fan needs a no-nonsense approach to rankings. The first 10-15 guys ranked overall project as possible all stars. The next 20-30 as above average guys with a chance to be great. The other 50 are either average to fourth OF type of major leaguers if they are close to the bigs or prospects to keep an eye on in lower levels. Everyone else is a fringe guy at best at the current moment. Massey is a great example of this in action. He was never a top 100 prospect but he had some success recently and suddenly he is part of the royals "core" going forward, because OMG he was rated as the royals third best prospect so he must be good. And here he sits with a 710 OPS so far, which is probably roughly what he projects as. Maybe up to 800 if he really peaks. And yet in two years you will see people say "ugh he's a JAG can't we find anyone else he never lived up to his hype scouts don't know anything", even though so far he's been exactly as advertised and what scouts projected. Scouts are wrong sometimes, that's the nature of the game, but generally what they project is fairly accurate but the fans see what they want to see.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

What do you base that on? I have no inside knowledge but I’d guesstimate it’s like 60% he will return. I don’t think losing 94 games is something that just gets glossed over by Sherman. He’s def on the hot seat - look at all the staffing changes we’ve seen this year

Because Royals.

Do you think that Sherman is going to force DM to fire Matheny? I think Dayton easily convinces himself to keep Matheny on through the end of his contract and will extend him next year if the team is anywhere near .500.

DM is going to justify keeping the turd because of how well the rookie hitters have looked at times and is gonna get some pitching in the off-season and give Matheny one last shot to put it together.

Unless Sherman forces his hand, which is why I only put it at 95%, then Matheny will start the year as Manager. I don't think it's likely that Sherman will get involved like that and I don't think he's going to can everyone.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

WTF is a "pitching coordinator"? Typical CP type answer of "someone who coordinates pitching" has already been considered.

Sort of an assistant pitching coach.

They're also often a sort of 'run prevention assistant' who works with the defense on shifts and catchers on pitch calling, etc...

Tommy Hottovy (Park Hill South grad - go class of '00!!) had a similar gig before he got the Cubs pitching coach assignment.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Scouts and anyone who writes a lot about prospects. Their writing is always padded with a lot of flowery fluff and padded with bullshit...have to show how knowledgeable they are...and then 1 in 10 of the players they tout ever do shit in the bigs. Our resident expert in this thread does the same thing.

Are you really taking a shot at Duncan?

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Because Royals.

Do you think that Sherman is going to force DM to fire Matheny? I think Dayton easily convinces himself to keep Matheny on through the end of his contract and will extend him next year if the team is anywhere near .500.

DM is going to justify keeping the turd because of how well the rookie hitters have looked at times and is gonna get some pitching in the off-season and give Matheny one last shot to put it together.

Unless Sherman forces his hand, which is why I only put it at 95%, then Matheny will start the year as Manager. I don't think it's likely that Sherman will get involved like that and I don't think he's going to can everyone.

You could be right. I have no crystal ball. My sense is 94 losses or whatever isn’t a good spot for a manager to be in when he has his job review this winter. Frankly I think DM is prob as weak as he’s ever been in terms of decision making. And we aren’t really showing any progress to justify a 95% retention odds

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Are you really taking a shot at Duncan?

I don’t think he was exactly cryptic.

[Tylerthigpen!1!]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Are you really taking a shot at Duncan?

It is Bitch after all. Not exactly shy of throwing punches at folks with opposing views.

[Prison Bitch]

It was Cosmo actually. Not me.

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

Scout VK checking in here with some answers:

Pasquantino: Stud in the making, but hurting his shoulder swinging is a very bad sign.
Pratto: bust in the making. It happens.
Singer: SP2/SP3 in the making
Bubic: Already a bust. Probably couldn't get outs in Japan, or probably Korea
Lynch: See Bubic
Kowar: See Lynch
Massey: more likely than not to be a solid everyday player
Witt Jr.: Not quite the superstar most hoped for, but very good. Adley is far better, but Witt is a legit 30/30 guy. It's just gonna be with a .240 average and a .320 OBP with him.
Melendez: Stud. Could end up better than Pasquantino given he hasn't put himself on the IL by swinging.
Isbel: not gonna happen, unfortunately. Nice speed/power combo on paper but nah.
Cross: too early to tell. No opinion.
Drew Waters: nope

In 2 or 3 years, I am going to link back to this very post as proof that I had my finger absolutely on the pulse of the Royal organization.

[WhawhaWhat]

Happy to see the pitch clocks get called up. The minor league games I've been to really seem to move along quite well with them.

The vote among the competition committee was not unanimous. Players voted against the pitch clock and the shift restrictions.

The vote for larger bases was unanimous.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 9, 2022

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

A fangraphs writer once banned me from his twitch channel about 18 months - 24 months ago cause I kept telling him the shift would be banned, and he said I was so stupid it'll never be banned. What a moment of redemption!

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Sort of an assistant pitching coach.

They're also often a sort of 'run prevention assistant' who works with the defense on shifts and catchers on pitch calling, etc...

Tommy Hottovy (Park Hill South grad - go class of '00!!) had a similar gig before he got the Cubs pitching coach assignment.

Thanks!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by SithCeNtZ

I think the key is the sites like MLB never list their actual projection of a guy so people just read into what they want. And most average fans have no idea how to read prospect rankings. They just see "OMG royals #2 prospect! He's #2 and 95th overall so he must have a chance to be an all star!". And in reality the projection there is "average major leaguer at best", but it isn't always explicitly stated like that so people get upset when they don't pan out as an above average player. The average fan needs a no-nonsense approach to rankings. The first 10-15 guys ranked overall project as possible all stars. The next 20-30 as above average guys with a chance to be great. The other 50 are either average to fourth OF type of major leaguers if they are close to the bigs or prospects to keep an eye on in lower levels. Everyone else is a fringe guy at best at the current moment. Massey is a great example of this in action. He was never a top 100 prospect but he had some success recently and suddenly he is part of the royals "core" going forward, because OMG he was rated as the royals third best prospect so he must be good. And here he sits with a 710 OPS so far, which is probably roughly what he projects as. Maybe up to 800 if he really peaks. And yet in two years you will see people say "ugh he's a JAG can't we find anyone else he never lived up to his hype scouts don't know anything", even though so far he's been exactly as advertised and what scouts projected. Scouts are wrong sometimes, that's the nature of the game, but generally what they project is fairly accurate but the fans see what they want to see.

You know, I usually try to mention what their future role is (and Fangraphs is really good about this with its future value projections). But I think I skew towards discussing tools and "best outcomes." In the future, I'll make more of an effort to discuss best outcome/likely outcome/bust outcome, or future value.

As with anything, it's easy to skip over things that are obvious to a scout or someone who pays close attention, but that aren't apparent to a more casual fan.

It's a little more effort, but would add value.

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Scouts and anyone who writes a lot about prospects. Their writing is always padded with a lot of flowery fluff and padded with bullshit...have to show how knowledgeable they are...and then 1 in 10 of the players they tout ever do shit in the bigs. Our resident expert in this thread does the same thing.

It's a numbers game, man.

Even if you limit to the top 10 prospects on a teams list, that's 300 prospects. There are 780 roster spots in major league baseball, and the average career lasts about 3 years.

Just by the numbers, the competition for spots is going to be very intense. Development is not linear. You can talk about tools, you can talk about make-up. But the edge between success and failure is so fine and so varied lots of guys are going to surprise negatively or positively.

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

You know, I usually try to mention what their future role is (and Fangraphs is really good about this with its future value projections). But I think I skew towards discussing tools and "best outcomes." In the future, I'll make more of an effort to discuss best outcome/likely outcome/bust outcome, or future value.

As with anything, it's easy to skip over things that are obvious to a scout or someone who pays close attention, but that aren't apparent to a more casual fan.

It's a little more effort, but would add value.



It's a numbers game, man.

Even if you limit to the top 10 prospects on a teams list, that's 300 prospects. There are 780 roster spots in major league baseball, and the average career lasts about 3 years.

Just by the numbers, the competition for spots is going to be very intense. Development is not linear. You can talk about tools, you can talk about make-up. But the edge between success and failure is so fine and so varied lots of guys are going to surprise negatively or positively.

So I'm to understand you're the most insightful baseball guy on this website, and perhaps you are, but...."the future is hard to predict" hardly qualifies as amazing analysis. I'll keep an eye out for more substantive posts you might make in the future.