***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Why are variants unlikely to FULLY evade vaccine-induced immunity?
•Vaccines are polyclonal
•CD8+ T-cells covering 52 epitopes across the spike protein
•CD4+ T-cells covering 23 epitopes across the spike protein

— Chise �������� (@sailorrooscout) July 27, 2021

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I'm not talking about protection against severe disease and death.

We were discussing their efficacy against infection.

Again, looks like there's such a larger sample of vaccinated individuals than non to compare to it appears to skew the math downward, when in reality they're still around 85-88 % effective in reducing infection.

We'd also need to know the specifics of those testing positive post vaccination. I know in nursing homes here they're still testing those vaccinated alot and some are testing positive while being asymptomatic. Which doesn't make sense in why you'd continue to test people that way, but maybe I'm out of the loop.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

Again, looks like there's such a larger sample of vaccinated individuals than non to compare to it appears to skew the math downward, when in reality they're still around 85-88 % effective in reducing infection.

We'd also need to know the specifics of those testing positive post vaccination. I know in nursing homes here they're still testing those vaccinated alot and some are testing positive while being asymptomatic. Which doesn't make sense in why you'd continue to test people that way, but maybe I'm out of the loop.

They have an incredibly high vaccination rate but it's not 99%. 74% vaccinated leaves plenty of unvaccinated to work with.

The numbers appear to be the same as if the vax did nothing to stop infection..there is no signal that it does in the current Icelandic data.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

They have an incredibly high vaccination rate but it's not 99%. 74% vaccinated leaves plenty of unvaccinated to work with.

The numbers appear to be the same as if the vax did nothing to stop infection..there is no signal that it does in the current Icelandic data.

Replicated wherever tracked, with gradient increased as infections begin to soar again due to Delta, now 8-fold Δ Our @SanDiegoCounty data @sdut today pic.twitter.com/wdYyXlQAjU

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 25, 2021

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

Replicated wherever tracked, with gradient increased as infections begin to soar again due to Delta, now 8-fold Δ Our @SanDiegoCounty data @sdut today pic.twitter.com/wdYyXlQAjU

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) July 25, 2021

Unfortunately US data on vaccine cases can't be trusted at the "cases" level.

See why:

C.D.C. Will Not Investigate Mild Infections in Vaccinated Americans

At least 10,000 vaccinated people were infected with the coronavirus through the end of April. Now the agency has stopped pursuing the mildest cases.

Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stopped investigating breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated people unless they become so sick that they are hospitalized or die.

Earlier this year, the agency was monitoring all cases. Through the end of April, when some 101 million Americans had been vaccinated, the C.D.C. had received 10,262 reports of breakthrough infections from 46 states and territories, a number that was very likely “a substantial undercount,” according to a C.D.C. report issued on Tuesday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/25/h...s-vaccine.html

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Unfortunately US data on vaccine cases can't be trusted at the "cases" level.

See why:

C.D.C. Will Not Investigate Mild Infections in Vaccinated Americans

At least 10,000 vaccinated people were infected with the coronavirus through the end of April. Now the agency has stopped pursuing the mildest cases.

Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stopped investigating breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated people unless they become so sick that they are hospitalized or die.

Earlier this year, the agency was monitoring all cases. Through the end of April, when some 101 million Americans had been vaccinated, the C.D.C. had received 10,262 reports of breakthrough infections from 46 states and territories, a number that was very likely “a substantial undercount,” according to a C.D.C. report issued on Tuesday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/25/h...s-vaccine.html

Weren't you on the "cases don't matter" train?

Are those other countries cases symptomatic?

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

Weren't you on the "cases don't matter" train?

Are those other countries cases symptomatic?

The problem is the US data is a mess because we are not tracking things the way other countries are.

As someone that is used to this, we now know how they are doing it.

Even past cases, vaccine deaths in the US we don't count the same.

UK as 2 doses, 1dose +, 1dose within days

US if you die after your 2nd shot, but not enough time after won't you count as an "unvaccinated death"?

Hospital numbers are going to be skewed now too...

We need to look at different test levels for vaccinated/unvaccinated at all levels.

[Marcellus]

Something anecdotal but interesting none the less I think.

Today in our Covid meeting we realized we have had about 3 break through cases with vaccinated employees, that's about 4% of our recent positives since July 1. None of the breakthrough cases have gotten very ill at all. Mild sickness.

What's interesting is we have about as many people who were previously positive as we had vaccinated going into July and we have had 0 previous positives test positive compared to the 3 vaccinated.

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...244478977?s=21

[O.city]

שינוי מגמה בארץ - הגל ״תפס״ את הלא מחוסנים. @dvir_a ואנוכי הסתכלנו על המידע העדכני וניסינו לנתח את המידע הגולמי על מנת שנוכל להעריך טוב יותר את מצב התחלואה ואת יעילות החיסון.

שרשור!��
>

— Amir Argoetti (@AArgoetti) July 27, 2021

Here's the explanation on the Israeli data. Makes sense. Now we would theoretically see the efficacy number increase.

[O.city]

Vaccine impact in Israel: changing trends. Analysis thread with @AArgoetti.
From about a month and a half ago we are experiencing a new “Delta” burst. Cases are accumulating, and more and more severe patients are in the hospitals. https://t.co/pCEjbkhMFu

— Dvir Aran (@dvir_a) July 27, 2021

[TLO]

Regarding the reports out of Israel on low vaccine effectiveness, it seems there was a denominator issue. What does this mean? It means the vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases AND likely symptomatic infection, even for those who were vaccinated early.

— Chise �������� (@sailorrooscout) July 27, 2021

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

שינוי מגמה בארץ - הגל ״תפס״ את הלא מחוסנים. @dvir_a ואנוכי הסתכלנו על המידע העדכני וניסינו לנתח את המידע הגולמי על מנת שנוכל להעריך טוב יותר את מצב התחלואה ואת יעילות החיסון.

שרשור!��
>

— Amir Argoetti (@AArgoetti) July 27, 2021

Here's the explanation on the Israeli data. Makes sense. Now we would theoretically see the efficacy number increase.

Are you just using Google Translate to make sense of this, or do you have some other magic process here? (Or are you Jewish...?)

[suzzer99]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/27/polit...nce/index.html

New evidence found that the levels of virus found in breakthrough cases among the vaccinated people are similar to those found in unvaccinated individuals who contract coronavirus, raising concerns that vaccinated individuals may be able to spread the virus, the official said.

A separate health official said that, based on the latest data, officials believe vaccinated people only represent a small amount of coronavirus transmission and the overwhelming majority of spread is still by unvaccinated people. But they know breakthrough cases can happen and emerging data suggests some vaccinated people can spread it, which is the driving factor behind Tuesday’s decision, as they continue to study it.

Versions of the virus that dominated in the past generally did not appear to be transmitted by people who had been fully vaccinated.

This probably explains a lot about the case explosions in places like Israel.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by TLO

Regarding the reports out of Israel on low vaccine effectiveness, it seems there was a denominator issue. What does this mean? It means the vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases AND likely symptomatic infection, even for those who were vaccinated early.

— Chise �������� (@sailorrooscout) July 27, 2021

One of the biggest problems with covid messaging is there is way too much info out there that is released without certainty or with flaws that is then changed, or edited, or revised.

We all would be better off if they just until the KNEW what they were communicating is accurate. Its been an issue from day 1. Yea there would be gaps in communication but that's better than a constant feed of inaccurate or faulty info.