***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[FAX]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I posted the data above. It isn't 10 percent.


I see that we have had around 18k confirmed influenza hospitalizations this year, and 260000 positive tests

That's less than 10 percent hospitalization.

I would love to see where on the CDC website you got your data, because I got mine from the recent influenza surveillance report

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by FAX

That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX

You cannot use confirmed positive cases when you are using estimated deaths.

Statistically this makes no sense

If you use estimated deaths, you need to use estimated cases, which is 36 million on the low end

[Bwana]

Looks like Canada is locking it up. Justin Trudeau says he will close Canada's border to non-citizens amid pandemic.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-citizens.html

[Donger]

Originally Posted by FAX

That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX

Would you agree that not everyone who gets seasonal influenza gets confirmed positive?

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by Bwana

Looks like Canada is locking it up. Justin Trudeau says he will close Canada's border to non-citizens amid pandemic.

Glad I don't have a fishing trip up there planned

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Donger

Would you agree that not everyone who gets seasonal influenza gets confirmed positive?

This is why it's impossible to debate these things with certain people. They don't know how to use the data that they are using to make their hypothesis

Either you are using confirmed cases or you are using estimated cases

[TLO]

So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.

[Hammock Parties]

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by FAX

That's a good page.

Let's not talk past each other here, my friend. Okay?

Here are the confirmed case numbers on your page ...

Data Cumulative since
September 29, 2019
(week 40)
222,552 (20.7%)

Agreed?

Now then ... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

22,000 – 55,000
flu deaths

Take the low number and divide it by 222,000 (rounding downish).

Again ... it's probably wise to remember that the CDC's projections on either side of the equation cannot be entirely/perfectly accurate. It's not possible.

FAX

Pretty sure that's no way to come up with accurate data.

[Bwana]

Originally Posted by TLO

So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.

Dude take a breath, seriously.

[Marcellus]

Kind of interesting, I work in an industry where we make shelf stable beverages, mainly protein drinks so we expect a massive increase in sales volume over this.

Problem is a few of our suppliers are shutting down so at some point we may not be able to produce as much product as we need which would be beneficial to most people.

I hope they don't do a national lock down as thats going to cause major problems and as far as I know there isn't a single case of the virus within hundreds of miles.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by TLO

So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.

Quit reading and posting in this thread.

[petegz28]

I keep hearing this "we know over the next few days we are going to need a lot more ventilators and ICU beds, etc. That may be true but we've been hearing it day after day.

The question is when do you start coming in off the ledge?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

So I can't get in to speak to my counselor for over a week. I wouldn't mind hearing some advice from you guys on things I can do to alleviate this stress and anxiety regarding this disease.

I'd like to stay up to date on the current information, but I do feel like I'm overloading myself right now with TOO much information.

Go for a nice walk, work out, and ejaculate. Not necessarily in that order, or at the same time.

Yes, this thing is real and it's here. But, unless and until we see exponential growth, and deaths, just use common sense precautions as much as you can, and carry on as best you can.

Oh, and watch this:

[FAX]

Originally Posted by SupDock

You cannot use confirmed positive cases when you are using estimated deaths.

Statistically this makes no sense

You'll get no argument from me on that point.

Imagine you're a CDC drone, however .... data rolling in from all over the place ... hundreds of labs run dozens of different ways ... diagnostics reported from both the competent and the incompetent. That must be difficult for a statistician.

So you make your best guess. What choice do you have? Lives are at stake and topical information is crucial so you get it out there.

Reasonably, the best guess might involve "confirmed cases" vs. "mortality". At least you have a hard number of positive test results and a hard number of deaths. Otherwise, you can make assumptions that may or may not be further off base.

If you read my original post, that's an element of my concern. Frankly, the "data" that's being reported via the CDC or the WHO or the NREVSS or hundreds of contributing labs or the media is ultimately unreliable.

If you know the verifiable, incontrovertible facts, please advise. I'm all ears.

FAX