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09-10-2020, 11:56 AM | #44341 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States
Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64–99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3–36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden. Link to study here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4 |
Posts: 39,403
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09-10-2020, 11:58 AM | #44342 |
Like I woke up in Wonderland..
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: KCMO
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Posts: 18,640
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09-10-2020, 11:59 AM | #44343 | |
The Beast Inside Your Head
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Parts Unknown
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Posts: 25,951
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09-10-2020, 12:03 PM | #44344 | |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 43,062
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09-10-2020, 12:44 PM | #44345 |
Woman should only make babies
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Apartment "G UNIT!"
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Our elementary school closed
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Posts: 54,374
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09-10-2020, 01:49 PM | #44346 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Missouri's 7 day % positivity percentage appears to be dropping. New cases are down. Hospitalizations are stable.
We'll see if it holds. |
Posts: 39,403
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09-10-2020, 01:59 PM | #44347 |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 43,062
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09-10-2020, 02:23 PM | #44348 | |
Like I woke up in Wonderland..
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: KCMO
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Quote:
Anecdotal evidence, but I did hear about a friend's cousin (mid-20s) that died of Covid a week ago. |
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Posts: 18,640
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09-10-2020, 09:40 PM | #44349 |
'Tis my eye!
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Chiefsplanet
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357 school districts in Iowa and only 1 isn't yet actually back to school. The Des Moines school district is now considering suing the state so that they can keep from having to go back to school.
This despite that the fact that the 2nd and 3rd largest districts in the area, Waukee and West Des Moines have had 25,000 students in class for almost 2 weeks and have a grand total of 35 cases. |
Posts: 100,022
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09-10-2020, 09:45 PM | #44350 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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Posts: 128,695
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09-10-2020, 09:52 PM | #44351 |
'Tis my eye!
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Chiefsplanet
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Posts: 100,022
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09-11-2020, 09:22 AM | #44352 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html
CDC has updated their estimates. R0 best estimate remains 2.5 They've also broken out the IFR by age group. |
Posts: 182,781
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09-11-2020, 10:17 AM | #44353 | |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Quote:
0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054 |
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Posts: 39,403
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09-11-2020, 10:19 AM | #44354 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 182,781
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09-11-2020, 11:20 AM | #44355 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Posts: 39,403
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