***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

So there's a study out of Switzerland I believe, that shows the vast majority of spread is actually in homes, not out and about it the community.

If thats the case, i don't know how you stop that

China figured that out early on so they started removing people from homes and put them in a quarantine camp. I and others suggested doing something similar by placing people voluntarily in empty hotels and boy did I get shit on.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

CDC is now projecting 11k deaths per week in August. That would be an average of 1466 per day. I really hope they are wildly off.

That would require quite a surge in the death rate for that to happen. Last week which was the worst week in a long time was only 1,300 daily average. With the way cases are dropping now it would be hard to see us getting there. Let's just hope it doesn't happen.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah.

As much of an issue as people have with wearing masks, i don't think they'll take being asked to isolate away from home very well

There's just not really a mechanism in place to make that a reasonable thing to do. If you're isolated but in the same home, it's highly likely that air movement alone will cause it to spread. So unless we're going to start subsidizing people going to hotels (presumably that have been identified to have optimal air circulation), home spread is just going to be a reality.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

There's just not really a mechanism in place to make that a reasonable thing to do. If you're isolated but in the same home, it's highly likely that air movement alone will cause it to spread. So unless we're going to start subsidizing people going to hotels (presumably that have been identified to have optimal air circulation), home spread is just going to be a reality.

Yeah, unless they're willing to open up hotels or whatever, thats just gonna be part of it.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Pants

I saw a study from Korea to which you may be referring. I am not sure what the point of it was, but I think it's pretty obvious that if you bring COVID home, your family will most likely get it and you just infected a number of people (this variable is different in different countries due to the way the families live).

You have to employ the same mitigation mechanisms which have been discussed a million times so you don't bring SARS2 home to spread to your family.

Thing is though, is there really that much spread happening say in restaurants and what not?

Youre just not there long enough IMO but who knows.

I think the at home thing is just another feather in the "there's some kind of preexisting immunity" hat because we've seen some homes have it in a single person and not pass it.

For instance, anecdotal story, but my wife's cousin that tested positive stayed in the same house as his wife and 2 kids. None of them had any issues.

Something weird going on there.

[O.city]

Also, it's good to have some good news as hospitalizations in Arizona are going down fast. Hoping the same is happening in Florida and Texas, which appears to be the case.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Pants

I saw a study from Korea to which you may be referring. I am not sure what the point of it was, but I think it's pretty obvious that if you bring COVID home, your family will most likely get it and you just infected a number of people (this variable is different in different countries due to the way the families live).

You have to employ the same mitigation mechanisms which have been discussed a million times so you don't bring SARS2 home to spread to your family.

I'm not going to leave my family members high and dry when they need me. If they get it, I get it. We're in this together.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Thing is though, is there really that much spread happening say in restaurants and what not?

Youre just not there long enough IMO but who knows.

I think the at home thing is just another feather in the "there's some kind of preexisting immunity" hat because we've seen some homes have it in a single person and not pass it.

For instance, anecdotal story, but my wife's cousin that tested positive stayed in the same house as his wife and 2 kids. None of them had any issues.

Something weird going on there.

I'd really like to see some sort of summary of where infections have come from (to the extent that they can be identified). In other words, what percentage of total infections have come from home spread, workplaces, retail stores, restaurants, schools, outdoor events, etc.? I know that, conceptually, restaurants are riskier than parks, but it's hard to really get a feel for the quantified risks.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by O.city

So there's a study out of Switzerland I believe, that shows the vast majority of spread is actually in homes, not out and about it the community.

If thats the case, i don't know how you stop that

That may be causing a rise in caseload, but that doesn't seem like a root cause. It's just an outcome of people bringing it into the home from elsewhere. So I would think that 'elsewhere' would remain the focus, right?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I'd really like to see some sort of summary of where infections have come from (to the extent that they can be identified). In other words, what percentage of total infections have come from home spread, workplaces, retail stores, restaurants, schools, outdoor events, etc.? I know that, conceptually, restaurants are riskier than parks, but it's hard to really get a feel for the quantified risks.

For sure.

I have yet to see any evidence on any coming from outside. Which, makes sense.

Retail stores or places where you likely aren't in or atleast aren't in for very long seem to be extremely low (grocery stores, shopping etc).

Work would seemingly be higher (everyone was panicked about dentist offices at first, lotta guys had staff quit etc, but we have always practiced these protocols so it didn't make sense but not much does these days) depending on where you are or how long youre there.

Ventilation is a big factor here IMO.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

That may be causing a rise in caseload, but that doesn't seem like a root cause. It's just an outcome of people bringing it into the home from elsewhere. So I would think that 'elsewhere' would remain the focus, right?

For sure, but that's where you're gonna get the majority of cases just out of it being where people are around others the most.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

For sure.

I have yet to see any evidence on any coming from outside. Which, makes sense.

Retail stores or places where you likely aren't in or atleast aren't in for very long seem to be extremely low (grocery stores, shopping etc).

Work would seemingly be higher (everyone was panicked about dentist offices at first, lotta guys had staff quit etc, but we have always practiced these protocols so it didn't make sense but not much does these days) depending on where you are or how long youre there.

Ventilation is a big factor here IMO.

I think being outdoors makes a big difference but we are going to have a true test here shortly because Sturgis is still on. They are expecting 250k+ to attend.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Spoiler!

Quite the ****.

Is there a part two?

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Spoiler!

God, I wanted to see them find out it was all recorded SO BADLY. Dammit!

I hope those two idiots go to jail. You can't just throw your drink at someone, much less so when that drink is hot.

[dlphg9]

My local clinic/hospital is so irresponsible. The mother****ers aren't wearing masks (used to work there and if you didnt get the flu shot you were required to wear one) and then over the weekend they had their annual block party. A couple hundred people crowded in a small hospital seems like a great idea, especially when no one is wearing a mask or social distancing. A significant number of people that go to this are elderly, so hopefully this doesn't start some type of outbreak.

The main thing that irritates me the most about the staff not wearing masks is that the vast majority of patients in the hospital are from the local nursing home. It just blows my mind that a hospital is being so careless.