***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by O.city

It takes quite a few sparks to get a fire going normally in these things. Chains die out and don't take off etc.

Once we started mass testing in these places we started finding these huge spikes. I'm guessing some of them were there before we shined a flash light on it.

The sparks is people not social distancing and going about their business as usual. Mass testing isn't causing death and mass hospitalizations though.

I know people like to point to Sweden but look at Vietnam which shares a border with China and had thousands of visitors from them and they only have 350+ cases and no deaths. Explain that one lol.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I think you're romanticizing Sweden a bit here. Norway is more open than Sweden at this point.

It's not ideal.

But now these other countries that locked down are talking about the fact that they won't be able to lock down again. What are they gonna do if they have large spikes?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

The sparks is people not social distancing and going about their business as usual. Mass testing isn't causing death and mass hospitalizations though.

I know people like to point to Sweden but look at Vietnam which shares a border with China and had thousands of visitors from them and they only have 350+ cases and no deaths. Explain that one lol.

If 40% of cases are asymptomatic and these other countries are only testing those with symptoms, how many are they really catching though?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's not ideal.

But now these other countries that locked down are talking about the fact that they won't be able to lock down again. What are they gonna do if they have large spikes?

I was told that Texas wouldn't lock down again, and yet here we are. The answer is that they'll lock down as much as is necessary.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I was told that Texas wouldn't lock down again, and yet here we are. The answer is that they'll lock down as much as is necessary.

Again though, if you're going to have to go thru continued opening and closing, whats the long term game here?

I understand the hammer and the dance, but it seems economically, that's gonna be pretty brutal

[F150]

ERRORS FOUND: Florida's positivity rate is skewed. #FOX35 went through #COVID19 test reports & found many clinics reporting 100% positivity. @orlandohealth admits their number is wrong, saying it shows 98% positive, but it's actually 9.4%. @fox35orlando https://t.co/NgFuXjw5OS

— Amy Kaufeldt (@Fox35Amy) July 14, 2020

believe nothing we read,see or hear

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

Again though, if you're going to have to go thru continued opening and closing, whats the long term game here?

I understand the hammer and the dance, but it seems economically, that's gonna be pretty brutal

Check out articles about Sweden's economic performance in Q2 vs. Norway's. The answer might surprise you.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/b...ronavirus.html

(In short, Norway is about the same if not a tiny bit better.)

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by F150

ERRORS FOUND: Florida's positivity rate is skewed. #FOX35 went through #COVID19 test reports & found many clinics reporting 100% positivity. @orlandohealth admits their number is wrong, saying it shows 98% positive, but it's actually 9.4%. @fox35orlando https://t.co/NgFuXjw5OS

— Amy Kaufeldt (@Fox35Amy) July 14, 2020

believe nothing we read,see or hear

No, you need to live in fear and you're gonna like it!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I was told that Texas wouldn't lock down again, and yet here we are. The answer is that they'll lock down as much as is necessary.

.@GovAbbott says Texans would not comply with a second statewide shutdown. Therefore, it’s off the table.

He argues that Texans are resisting even masks, “Do you think a lockdown will be enforced?”

True.https://t.co/zuwLFOoOqv

— Aaron Ginn (@aginnt) July 14, 2020

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Check out articles about Sweden's economic performance in Q2 vs. Norway's. The answer might surprise you.

I saw it recently, it was definitely interesting.

I'm just thinking this thing out forward. If Sweden is indeed basically done with it at this point, thats pretty advantageous. Now, what they went thru to get there was short term pain, but if indeed other countries end up passing them on their long slog thru, that changes.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

ERRORS FOUND: Florida's positivity rate is skewed. #FOX35 went through #COVID19 test reports & found many clinics reporting 100% positivity. @orlandohealth admits their number is wrong, saying it shows 98% positive, but it's actually 9.4%. @fox35orlando https://t.co/NgFuXjw5OS

— Amy Kaufeldt (@Fox35Amy) July 14, 2020

Uhhhh.... OOPS???

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Again though, if you're going to have to go thru continued opening and closing, whats the long term game here?

I understand the hammer and the dance, but it seems economically, that's gonna be pretty brutal

Maybe drive case growth down with mitigation efforts so it's sustained for 10 to 14 days, then reopen in phases.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Maybe drive case growth down with mitigation efforts so it's sustained for 10 to 14 days, then reopen in phases.

Even if you do that though, i just don't know that you can keep it down.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Look at Australia right now. Everyone thought they had it whooped. They're an island etc.

Now they're having an outbreak in Melbourne and are looking at locking back down.

It's starting to look obvious to me that you can't run from this thing. So either you lock it down, permanently until we have tools to stop it, or you do your best to funnel it

That's kinda been my take on it all along. It is not going away. You can do all the masks and distancing and locking and canceling you want but it is not going away. All it takes is one person and it flares back up.

My stance has been therapeutic treatments first, vaccines second. Simply because a Vaccine won't fix you get it. By the same token, if we can treat it effectively then the vaccine is icing.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Even if you do that though, i just don't know that you can keep it down.

There are plenty of examples of it. Not here, of course, except for places like NY.