The logic of drafting OT in the 1st.

[Direckshun]

What we know about this team is that it typically likes to fill its roster out as much as possible in free agency and then spend its highest picks on potential replacements for job openings a year down the road, and that includes Veach.

I doubt I even need to run down the list but:

2020: CEH --> Williams
2019: Hardman --> Hill/Watkins
2018: Speaks --> Ford/Houston
2017: Mahomes --> Smith

Fisher will be on the last year of his contract, and most of us suspect Schwartz retiring.

The Chiefs obviously like Niang but going OT 1st gives them the options:

• Niang vs. the rookie for starting RT
• if the rookie wins, Niang can slide into guard or hold the swing tackle position
• if Niang wins, the rookie can slide into guard or hold the swing tackle position
• the Chiefs love Fisher but if both Niang and the rookie excel, maybe they cut bait
• if only one of them excel, the Chiefs can extend Fisher

It just seems like the kind of move that gives them the flexibility in future decisions that they like to have.

I'd rather they go DE, even if it means trading up for one. But based on what we know, OT could ostensibly solve up to two different OL spots in 2021 and gives them all kinds of options in 2022 based on how 2021 goes.

[CatfishBob2]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Could Veach zig when everyone expects him to zag? What about CB in the first? Breeland could be gone. Baker is coming off of an injury. Keyes is an unknown.

Any position except QB is viable with our first IMO.....

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Using W/L as a basis for player evaluation doesn't provide us with much. We both know it's not a sustainable formula to trot out a subpar player week after week at tackle just because you're winning. I'd rather not have my star QB hit play after play and running for his life, which is what he's done a lot more of with lesser talented players at the position. He's done enough of it with bad guards, much less bad tackles. You look at Rankin, he still gave up a sack. He gave up some pressure. Is he good enough there to get you through a game or two? Yes. Is he good enough there to get you through a season? Nothing I've seen indicates it's a good idea. Equally, Remmers has never shown to be good enough to get you through a season there.

I don't advocate using a bunch of 1st round picks on the offensive line. I expect to use one on a LT because that's where you get a good one. You probably need a day 2 pick at RT, which the Chiefs spent last year on Niang. And, I absolutely think you need good tackles in the NFL. The rest of the line can be filled in with mid and late round picks.

What does this team need so badly instead of a tackle to protect Mahomes? I don't see a more important use of a draft resource. We can make the same argument that Reid has gotten by just fine with day 2 and 3 receivers and Spags has gotten by with garbage heap defensive ends, which are the other positions everyone is up in arms over. Everyone wants upgrades at those positions. The difference being there is that you're more likely to snag value at those positions beyond round 1 than you are at LT.

The more I look at it, the more I’m convinced Walker Little is the best fit for KC among Ts likely to be available in rounds 1-2 if they need a LT.

He was hurt in 2019 and opted out of 2020, so his stock isn’t what it could be.

But a highly athletic, 6-7 guy with good strength and Stanford level intelligence sounds pretty good to me.

All depends on what they think they’re getting from Fisher and Schwartz, if anything, in 2021.

If they’re both done, it’s hard to me to believe they’re going to roll with Niang and a draft pick at both tackles. They’ll try to at least pick up a vet stopgap and I could see an investment in that position in FA becoming a priority.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Using W/L as a basis for player evaluation doesn't provide us with much. We both know it's not a sustainable formula to trot out a subpar player week after week at tackle just because you're winning. I'd rather not have my star QB hit play after play and running for his life, which is what he's done a lot more of with lesser talented players at the position. He's done enough of it with bad guards, much less bad tackles. You look at Rankin, he still gave up a sack. He gave up some pressure. Is he good enough there to get you through a game or two? Yes. Is he good enough there to get you through a season? Nothing I've seen indicates it's a good idea. Equally, Remmers has never shown to be good enough to get you through a season there.

I don't advocate using a bunch of 1st round picks on the offensive line. I expect to use one on a LT because that's where you get a good one. You probably need a day 2 pick at RT, which the Chiefs spent last year on Niang. And, I absolutely think you need good tackles in the NFL. The rest of the line can be filled in with mid and late round picks.

What does this team need so badly instead of a tackle to protect Mahomes? I don't see a more important use of a draft resource. We can make the same argument that Reid has gotten by just fine with day 2 and 3 receivers and Spags has gotten by with garbage heap defensive ends, which are the other positions everyone is up in arms over. Everyone wants upgrades at those positions. The difference being there is that you're more likely to snag value at those positions beyond round 1 than you are at LT.

I'm okay with a LT in the first IF there's a LT there.

I see a lot of mocks where the only OT's available are either right siders or developmental power prospects that might not even be able to play in Reid's scheme.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by CatfishBob2

Any position except QB is viable with our first IMO.....

But not valuable.

There's no reason to take any one of several positions either because they have little positional value or they don't have the depth of prospects.

The Chiefs would be smart to take a DE, DB, WR, or OT with the 32nd pick. Those are the positions that have both depth and positional value.

OG has some depth but less positional value. DT has positional value but little depth. LB has neither.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Schwartz hasn't been "excellent" since 2016.

I'm way behind the discussion here but Schwartz had perhaps one of the greatest offensive tackle performances in playoff history in 2019. This is completely false.

I believe he's made the All Pro team twice since 2016.

[BlackOp]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

But not valuable.

There's no reason to take any one of several positions either because they have little positional value or they don't have the depth of prospects.

The Chiefs would be smart to take a DE, DB, WR, or OT with the 32nd pick. Those are the positions that have both depth and positional value.

OG has some depth but less positional value. DT has positional value but little depth. LB has neither.

This is an offense driven league now...and the Chiefs have, what looks like, the best QB in modern history.

Play to your strengths...you keep hearing..."they just have too many weapons" or "you cant cover them all"...shit, I'd drum up that advantage to the next level. It's got them to back-to-back Superbowls...

Keep stockpiling elite offensive skill positions...one every other draft in the first two rounds.

Who was the WR that KC just picked up off the scrap heap...the one drafted by the Browns? That guy flashed some talent but has some issues...wonder if watching how the Chiefs operate from arm's distance will set his shit straight.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

This is an offense driven league now...and the Chiefs have, what looks like, the best QB in modern history.

Play to your strengths...you keep hearing..."they just have too many weapons" or "you cant cover them all"...shit, I'd drum up that advantage to the next level. It's got them to back-to-back Superbowls...

Keep stockpiling elite offensive skill positions...one every other draft in the first two rounds.

Who was the WR that KC just picked up off the scrap heap...the one drafted by the Browns? That guy flashed some talent but has some issues...wonder if watching how the Chiefs operate from arm's distance will set his shit straight.

Yep. Just keep drafting playmakers.

[staylor26]

I like to look at it like this.

If I’m the rest of the NFL, what scares me more?

The Chiefs drafting a T, the Chiefs getting a WR like Bateman/Marshall/Toney, or a potentially elite pass rusher like Phillips/Oweh?

Personally, the WR or DE would scare me a lot more than a T.

Now don’t get wrong, I totally understand taking a T in the 1st and there are a couple that could easily be BPA if they make it to our pick. Just making a point.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by staylor26

I like to look at it like this.

If I’m the rest of the NFL, what scares me more?

The Chiefs drafting a T, the Chiefs getting a WR like Bateman/Marshall/Toney, or a potentially elite pass rusher like Phillips/Owen?

Personally, the WR or DE would scare me a lot more than a T.

Now don’t get wrong, I totally understand taking a T in the 1st and there are a couple that could easily be BPA if they make it to our pick. Just making a point.

I absolutely agree.

Of course, the more mocks I run, the more it becomes clear to me that we might not have much choice.

[BlackOp]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I absolutely agree.

Of course, the more mocks I run, the more it becomes clear to me that we might not have much choice.

I also think if Veach identifies a skill position in the middle of the first he wants....I have no problem giving up picks to land him.

A potential superstar lasts a decade...and Reid's staff has proven to ability to "coach up" middle-of-the-road lineman.

There were rumors about him being interested in Ruggs....He's never going to leave Mahomes without offensive talent.

I want them build the craziest offense in NFL history... They have the QB/coach to do it.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I'm okay with a LT in the first IF there's a LT there.

I see a lot of mocks where the only OT's available are either right siders or developmental power prospects that might not even be able to play in Reid's scheme.

There are 6 tackles in this draft I consider Reid left tackles:

Penei Sewell - If he drops outside the top 5, I'd shit myself. Not a chance.
Rashawn Slater - He's a likely top 10 player, again no chance.
Christian Darrisaw - The Chiefs would have to make a pretty significant leap IMO, probably top 15.
Jalen Mayfield - Has the ability to be a LT in the NFL, I think he gets moved over and goes top 20.
Samuel Cosmi - Some have him as a top 15 guy, I don't but he could be in range or there.
Dillon Radunz - Kind of raw but the tools are there and he should be there.
Walker Little - I'm a bit concerned about his feet against elite rushers but I think he'll hold up pretty well and not playing in nearly 2 years will push him a ways down IMO.


The rest, to me, don't fit the scheme or are RTs or guards.

I think Alijah Vera-Tucker is one guy that could get your through a season at LT but that's not a long-term guy in this system. Teams in want of an elite guard prospect probably look his way earlier anyhow.

[staylor26]

Man, I have a hard time believing that Radunz is a top 32 player.

I think he’s definitely top 50, and I’d be all for trading back or up in the 2nd for him, but there’s no way I’m taking him over Bateman, Phillips, Toney, Marshall, Ojulari, or Oweh.

Cosmi or Mayfield are our most realistic shot at taking a T in the 1st.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Man, I have a hard time believing that Radunz is a top 32 player.

I think he’s definitely top 50, and I’d be all for trading back or up in the 2nd for him, but there’s no way I’m taking him over Bateman, Phillips, Toney, Marshall, Ojulari, or Oweh.

Cosmi or Mayfield are our most realistic shot at taking a T in the 1st.

I have run probably 25 mocks and Cosmi either goes 13 to the Chargers or 14 to the Patriots every time. I don't see him being there.

Of all the guys that kccrow listed, the only one that consistently falls to 32 is Radunz.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by kccrow

There are 6 tackles in this draft I consider Reid left tackles:

Penei Sewell - If he drops outside the top 5, I'd shit myself. Not a chance.
Rashawn Slater - He's a likely top 10 player, again no chance.
Christian Darrisaw - The Chiefs would have to make a pretty significant leap IMO, probably top 15.
Jalen Mayfield - Has the ability to be a LT in the NFL, I think he gets moved over and goes top 20.
Samuel Cosmi - Some have him as a top 15 guy, I don't but he could be in range or there.
Dillon Radunz - Kind of raw but the tools are there and he should be there.
Walker Little - I'm a bit concerned about his feet against elite rushers but I think he'll hold up pretty well and not playing in nearly 2 years will push him a ways down IMO.


The rest, to me, don't fit the scheme or are RTs or guards.

I think Alijah Vera-Tucker is one guy that could get your through a season at LT but that's not a long-term guy in this system. Teams in want of an elite guard prospect probably look his way earlier anyhow.

Just based on the simulator:

Sewell usually goes to the Bengals. Never any later.
Slater usually goes shortly after.
Cosmi and Darrisaw almost always go 13 and 14. Not always in the same order but the Chargers take one of them and the Patriots take the other.
Mayfield usually goes somewhere between 17 and 22.
Radunz sometimes gets snatched in the late 20's but does sometimes end up at 32.

FWIW, Vera-Tucker usually goes well before 32.

The guys that consistently end up being there at 32 are Eichenberg and Jenkins. Eichenberg is a high floor, low ceiling guy who is probably best suited to be a RT and Jenkins is a prospect, not really a starter.

Honestly, the only guy that makes a ton of sense is Little and that's only because they could probably get him in the 3rd if things fall right.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Man, I have a hard time believing that Radunz is a top 32 player.

I think he’s definitely top 50, and I’d be all for trading back or up in the 2nd for him, but there’s no way I’m taking him over Bateman, Phillips, Toney, Marshall, Ojulari, or Oweh.

Cosmi or Mayfield are our most realistic shot at taking a T in the 1st.

Agree, at least right now. His stock may adjust.

I kind of think KC's best value bet is to take Walker Little in the second. In terms of upside, fit, and draft slot/cost-benefit, that looks like the biggest W to me.

^ This is thinking, of course, that both Schwartz and Fisher are done/retiring.