Worst Case 1st Round

[Chargem]

Whats the worst case result that the Chiefs could realistically actually do in the first round, in your opinion, and how would you feel about it if it happened? You can include trades.

I think my worst case that I can see the Chiefs actually doing is:

29. Skyy Moore
30. Travis Jones

How would I feel about this?

Actually pretty fine. It would just feel a bit underwhelming.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I have no problem with a small trade up. I'm just not into giving away an extra 1st or 2nd to go too high, when I just don't see the separation between the edge rushers and WR's to justify it.

Other than that, I'm with you. I hate the thought of taking guys with injuries and hoping they come back full strength. Hope doesn't win a lot of football games.

I do disagree with you on the differences in tiers but that's okay. I think there's a much steeper drop at ER than there is at WR though.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's such an insane amount of long-term potential that I think I'd still prefer that over the Mafe/Pickens scenario I outlined.

Granted, the risk there is staggering. But if those guys get healthy and play to their pre-injury form, you've added 2 guys who were legitimately in the conversation as top 10 picks.

I wouldn't be terribly excited about that much risk (one or the other is fine), but it's not something that I'd be apoplectic about either.

I'd be okay with Williams if he fell but there's too much talk about getting up into the mid-to-high teens for him. I wouldn't want that. If they are going up there, I'd hope they just as well grab Olave and call it a day. There's really not a great difference in talent there. Olave probably is the better player over the first couple of years, but you're right on Jameson having some pretty serious upside. That said, I'm not too thrilled with moving up for a WR in this draft in particular, it's pretty deep.

I am not on board with taking a shot on Ojabo at all until at least round 3. I'd be pretty pissed. Not pissed enough to throw my TV out the window but more on the level of "WTF?!" pissed like I was with Gay because I, personally, think it's a terrible practice to take players in the first two rounds that can't give you much of a contribution in the first couple of years. It's not because they are "bad" players or don't have the potential to be "great" players, it's because you're taking on the type of development you expect out of mid-round guys in lieu of other guys that could have a more immediate impact. Take those projects in the 3rd to 5th rounds, I'm perfectly fine with that. The bigger problem with Ojabo is that while there is a better than ever chance he comes back as a productive player, there's no guarantee he'll ever amount to shit after that injury. It's a tough one. I feel better about my boy Damone Clark after spinal fusion than I do about Ojabo in terms of long-term projection. I get the want/desire to take the risk on Ojabo but the 1st round really is not the place to do that. Do you want to do it in the 2nd? I'd be more comfortable than the 1st, that's for sure.

[Chiefnj2]

If there isn't a QB run or CB run, then KC risks having to take tier 2 WR's and DE's. If that is the case, I'd have no problem taking a top ranked CB or Safety with one of the first round picks and trying to fall back a little for a QB hungry team looking to move up. This might be a year, where numbers are better.

[CatfishBob2]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

I almost hit the like button, but it depends on who falls. Our most pressing need is still DE by far. Teams make moves like that with far less capital than we have.

[The Franchise]

Worst case? It's already been said but trading up for any of the WRs. I don't give a shit if it's Wilson, Williams or Olave....I'm not trading multiple picks to go get one of them.

Worst case staying at 29 and 30? Christian Watson/Skyy Moore and Logan Hall. I don't see either of those WRs as 1st round value and a tweener defensive lineman would be severely underwhelming.

[MahomesMagic]

Christian Watson.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I do disagree with you on the differences in tiers but that's okay. I think there's a much steeper drop at ER than there is at WR though.



I'd be okay with Williams if he fell but there's too much talk about getting up into the mid-to-high teens for him. I wouldn't want that. If they are going up there, I'd hope they just as well grab Olave and call it a day. There's really not a great difference in talent there. Olave probably is the better player over the first couple of years, but you're right on Jameson having some pretty serious upside. That said, I'm not too thrilled with moving up for a WR in this draft in particular, it's pretty deep.

I am not on board with taking a shot on Ojabo at all until at least round 3. I'd be pretty pissed. Not pissed enough to throw my TV out the window but more on the level of "WTF?!" pissed like I was with Gay because I, personally, think it's a terrible practice to take players in the first two rounds that can't give you much of a contribution in the first couple of years. It's not because they are "bad" players or don't have the potential to be "great" players, it's because you're taking on the type of development you expect out of mid-round guys in lieu of other guys that could have a more immediate impact. Take those projects in the 3rd to 5th rounds, I'm perfectly fine with that. The bigger problem with Ojabo is that while there is a better than ever chance he comes back as a productive player, there's no guarantee he'll ever amount to shit after that injury. It's a tough one. I feel better about my boy Damone Clark after spinal fusion than I do about Ojabo in terms of long-term projection. I get the want/desire to take the risk on Ojabo but the 1st round really is not the place to do that. Do you want to do it in the 2nd? I'd be more comfortable than the 1st, that's for sure.

The possibility of getting the sort of return that the Titans got on Jeffery Simmons is just awfully intriguing...

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And I'm just saying that the one 1st round pick he's actually made here, he DID stand pat and make it. And took very possibly the lowest upside, highest floor, player available on the board at that time. It was as vanilla as a pick gets.

And when he was dealing away his 1st round picks for Clark and even OBJ, he was in a far different cap situation than he is now, as well as a different stage of the competitive cycle.

I think there's more to it than "Veach likes to trade his picks". Circumstances may very well have him sitting pat here and I don't know that we have enough information to really draw a 'trend' for him in the first place.

These young guy GM's like Veach and Howie don't seem to be competitive cycle guys though. Howie is stuck with a shit QB so I'm not sure what he can do, but with Andy in his prime and Mahomes, I just don't think they're much for "rebuild and take a step back"

[O.city]

Sitting and taking a tier 2 or whatever guy at the end of the first is underwhelming.

Probably should trade those picks for an established player.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

These young guy GM's like Veach and Howie don't seem to be competitive cycle guys though. Howie is stuck with a shit QB so I'm not sure what he can do, but with Andy in his prime and Mahomes, I just don't think they're much for "rebuild and take a step back"

I mean he just traded Tyreek Hill and largely sat out of the FA market while the rest of the AFC (specifically the AFC West) went nuts.

Sure looks like someone that's willing to take a step back for a minute.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by O.city

Sitting and taking a tier 2 or whatever guy at the end of the first is underwhelming.

Probably should trade those picks for an established player.

via GIPHY

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I mean he just traded Tyreek Hill and largely sat out of the FA market while the rest of the AFC (specifically the AFC West) went nuts.

Sure looks like someone that's willing to take a step back for a minute.

Watch Veach trade out of both first round picks and piss everyone off.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I mean he just traded Tyreek Hill and largely sat out of the FA market while the rest of the AFC (specifically the AFC West) went nuts.

Sure looks like someone that's willing to take a step back for a minute.

Timing though. Free agency happened before the Tyree thing when they were still trying to get him inked in long term.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

Timing though. Free agency happened before the Tyree thing when they were still trying to get him inked in long term.

Sure, but as the rest of the division was loading up, we were letting guys like Ward walk and trading Mathieu for a younger player in Reid.

Even before the Hill trade I was saying that Veach was treating this like something of a re-set offseason.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by O.city

Sitting and taking a tier 2 or whatever guy at the end of the first is underwhelming.

Probably should trade those picks for an established player.

You should probably just stop posting in the draft forum since you don't have the stomach for, you know, actually drafting players...

[Chris Meck]

I just....man, I could well be wrong, but I don't see this HUGE difference in the top couple of tiers of talent in this draft.

Even the TOP TIER Edges have questions. Thibodeaux might slide?

Look if anyone's even TALKING about that, it's an indication that there are questions about all but maybe like...the top 5 prospects total.

Jameson Williams in the top 15? He probably won't play but maybe the last 3rd of the season. What the hell?

NO QB's worth a first round pick?

I think this is a DEEP draft, but I don't see a huge separation between the supposed TOP GUYS and the second tier guys. All have questions, all require a certain amount of projection. the truly freak athletes are RAW, and the seasoned, ready to go guys all appear to have a ceiling.

I'd prefer to not move up AT ALL, for any of these guys, but if we MUST then I'd prefer it be a small jump just because Veach and Reid love a particular guy, like a Burks or maybe Karlaftis falls or something. But honestly, I don't see a massive difference in Karlaftis and Cam Thomas to be brutally ****ing honest. They're kind of the same guy.

I see a draft where a lot of guys came back another year to try to break that first round barrier after a covid wash season-and most of them don't do it.

Hell, if we're trading around, let's just trade all of those first 8 picks and bunch 'em all up in the 2nd round. That's where all the talent is, in my opinion.

I see a really blended mix of athletic talent/experience and higher floor guys that are all probably 2nd rounders.