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Old Yesterday, 11:14 AM  
TinyEvel TinyEvel is offline
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Never Tie a Game With the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes has a 6-0 record in regular season overtime games.

His only two overtime losses (out of 9) were against the Patriots in the 2019 AFCCG and Bengals in the 2022 AFCCG.

The NFL changed the playoffs overtime possession rule because of him. Mahomes then used it to beat the 49ers in the 2024 SuperBowl.

During the regular season it's "TD on first possession wins the game."

Never give the Chiefs these odds.

I'll say it again: Never go into overtime against the Chiefs.

Bucks should've gone for two.

Going for two is like tying the game, winning the toss, going all the way to the Chiefs' 2 yard line with one more play to punch it in.

That's a great head start against Mahomes and these Chiefs. I'd take those chances any day versus the alternative in overtime, in which one of the following outcomes is likely:

(A) If you lose the toss, Chiefs march down field and score a TD. You lose.

(B) If you win the toss, Spags end-of-game defense shuts you down, chiefs get the ball and see (A) above. You lose.

(C) If you win the toss and score a field goal, Chiefs get a chance to match or beat it and will either score a TD or get to your 45 yard line to let Butker kick it to tie and/or extend the game. You lose or at very best tie.

(D) If you win the toss and don't score, Chiefs only have to get to your 45 yard line to let Butker kick a 62 yard field goal and win the game. You lose.

Never go into overtime against these Chiefs.




This team is so awesome. I think one of the reasons we are undefeated is, while we get every opponent's best effort each week, those teams are also doing things out of character to try to win.

One case is Mahomes scrambling and tossing it to Perine. He's done this twice now. Teams over-pursue to stop his scramble, it opens up the toss. We give teams the yips. They take chances against us. Less than half of them pay off.
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Old Yesterday, 03:45 PM   #16
Otter Otter is offline
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If chatgpt is correct our boys are just downright awesome in overtime:


Kansas City Chiefs Overtime Games:

  1. October 6, 1974 – Chiefs 17, Bengals 13
    Result: Win
    (This was the Chiefs' first-ever overtime game.)
  2. December 7, 1975 – Chiefs 28, Browns 24
    Result: Win
  3. December 19, 1976 – Chiefs 20, Dolphins 17
    Result: Win
  4. November 30, 1977 – Chiefs 31, Steelers 30
    Result: Win
  5. December 16, 1979 – Chiefs 16, Bengals 13
    Result: Win
  6. October 16, 1983 – Chiefs 20, Seahawks 17
    Result: Win
  7. November 26, 1989 – Chiefs 23, Oilers 20
    Result: Win
  8. October 14, 1990 – Chiefs 33, Raiders 27
    Result: Win
  9. November 14, 1993 – Chiefs 24, Oilers 17
    Result: Win
  10. December 12, 1993 – Chiefs 30, Broncos 27
    Result: Win
  11. November 5, 1995 – Chiefs 20, Dolphins 17
    Result: Win
  12. December 3, 2000 – Chiefs 13, Jaguars 10
    Result: Win
  13. December 16, 2001 – Chiefs 40, Raiders 39
    Result: Win
  14. December 2, 2007 – Chiefs 20, Chargers 17
    Result: Win
  15. September 14, 2008 – Chiefs 10, Raiders 6
    Result: Win
  16. October 16, 2016 – Chiefs 43, Saints 40
    Result: Win
  17. December 10, 2017 – Chiefs 30, Chargers 27
    Result: Win
  18. December 23, 2018 – Chiefs 29, Seahawks 24
    Result: Win
  19. January 12, 2020 (AFC Divisional Playoffs) – Chiefs 51, Texans 31
    Result: Win
  20. January 19, 2020 (AFC Championship Game) – Chiefs 35, Titans 24
    Result: Win
  21. January 24, 2021 (Super Bowl LV) – Chiefs 31, 49ers 20
    Result: Win (Note: Super Bowl not technically overtime, but relevant to Chiefs postseason run.)
  22. October 6, 2021 (Monday Night Football) – Chiefs 37, Buffalo Bills 30 (OT)
    Result: Win
  23. January 23, 2022 (AFC Divisional Playoffs) – Chiefs 42, Bills 36 (OT)
    Result: Win
    (One of the most famous overtime games, known for Patrick Mahomes’ clutch plays.)
  24. January 30, 2022 (AFC Championship Game) – Chiefs 38, Bengals 35 (OT)
    Result: Win
  25. January 29, 2023 (AFC Championship Game) – Chiefs 23, Bengals 20 (OT)
    Result: Win
  26. October 12, 2023 – Chiefs 19, Broncos 13 (OT)
    Result: Win
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Old Yesterday, 03:49 PM   #17
smithandrew051 smithandrew051 is online now
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lol not quite accurate
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Old Yesterday, 04:21 PM   #18
Chargem Chargem is offline
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The permutations on this are interesting to think about.

2 point plays are about a 50% success rate.

But:

You don't win with a 2 point conversion, the Chiefs would have the 40 seconds and 2-3 time outs to go ~35 yards to try a field goal to win.

You don't lose with a failed 2 point conversion. The onside kick recovery rate is somewhere around 4%? recovering an onside kick is practically in field goal range.

Similar for just tying the game, you both risk that the Chiefs could win the game in regulation and also risk losing the game in OT without a chance to possess.

I still would have just gone for 2, but the exact situation here is interesting
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Old Yesterday, 04:35 PM   #19
Rain Man Rain Man is offline
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The only way to win a game against the Chiefs is to not play a game against the Chiefs.
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Old Yesterday, 04:47 PM   #20
Otter Otter is offline
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Originally Posted by smithandrew051 View Post
lol not quite accurate

Exactly why not to trust AI.
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Old Yesterday, 04:51 PM   #21
displacedinMN displacedinMN is online now
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That OT drive was a heads down, dont **** around, we are going to win this no matter what,and end it kind of drive.
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Old Yesterday, 05:03 PM   #22
TinyEvel TinyEvel is offline
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Originally Posted by displacedinMN View Post
That OT drive was a heads down, dont **** around, we are going to win this no matter what,and end it kind of drive.
Yeah but I'm sure they were in that mode when they got the ball up by 7 with three minutes to go. All they had to do was get a first down.
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Old Yesterday, 05:11 PM   #23
Rain Man Rain Man is offline
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Originally Posted by TinyEvel View Post
Yeah but I'm sure they were in that mode when they got the ball up by 7 with three minutes to go. All they had to do was get a first down.
I didn't understand that two-minute strategy at all. I guess they thought they could get a first down with that plan? Because I was watching it happen and thinking, "Hey, Andy. You have to get a first down to end this game, and it looks like you're tanking the drive." They killed, what, 20 seconds on that drive? I was pretty frustrated watching it.
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Old Yesterday, 05:15 PM   #24
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1. Land war in Asia
2. Against a Sicilian when death is on the line
3. Overtime against the Chiefs
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Old Yesterday, 05:18 PM   #25
Otter Otter is offline
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1. Land war in Asia
2. Against a Sicilian when death is on the line
3. Overtime against the Chiefs

War in Russia in December.
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Old Yesterday, 07:40 PM   #26
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Mayfield's reaction at losing the coin toss in OT was perfect



He knew what was about to happen, lol.
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Old Yesterday, 09:19 PM   #27
Bearcat Bearcat is offline
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One really strange stat from last night, unless I heard incorrectly... they said Mahomes had never thrown a 4th quarter touchdown in a tied game until last night?

I'm sure that sample size is relatively small and then you have all the times they're tied and just kick a FG, but still.
Here's every possession of Mahomes' career when the game is tied in the 4th quarter and the Chiefs had at least one possession.

Chargers show up 3 times, Bengals & Bills twice.

2018:
Ravens, tied at 17, punted twice. Tied at 24, missed FG

2019:
Never tied in the 4th quarter of a game.

2020:
Falcons: Tied at 7 entering the 4th, kicked a FG to break the tie.

2021:
Chargers: Tied at 24, Mahomes interception.

Giants: Tied at 17, kicked a FG

Bengals: Tied at 21, punted twice

2022:
Chargers: Tied the game at 17 in the 4th, then a pick 6 to take the lead (hey, a touchdown of some sort! )

Bills: Tied at 17, kicked a FG

Titans: Tied at 17, kicked a FG

Texans: Tied at 24, missed FG

Bengals: Tied at 20, punt and made a FG

Eagles: Tied at 35, kicked a FG

2023:
Jets: Tied at 20, made a FG

Bills: Tied at 17, punt

2024:
Chargers: Tied at 10, punt and a 2 yard Perine TD

Bucs, Tied at 17, P.Mahomes pass short left to D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN
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Old Yesterday, 11:31 PM   #28
rfaulk34 rfaulk34 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bearcat View Post
Here's every possession of Mahomes' career when the game is tied in the 4th quarter and the Chiefs had at least one possession.

Chargers show up 3 times, Bengals & Bills twice.

2018:
Ravens, tied at 17, punted twice. Tied at 24, missed FG

2019:
Never tied in the 4th quarter of a game.

2020:
Falcons: Tied at 7 entering the 4th, kicked a FG to break the tie.

2021:
Chargers: Tied at 24, Mahomes interception.

Giants: Tied at 17, kicked a FG

Bengals: Tied at 21, punted twice

2022:
Chargers: Tied the game at 17 in the 4th, then a pick 6 to take the lead (hey, a touchdown of some sort! )

Bills: Tied at 17, kicked a FG

Titans: Tied at 17, kicked a FG

Texans: Tied at 24, missed FG

Bengals: Tied at 20, punt and made a FG

Eagles: Tied at 35, kicked a FG

2023:
Jets: Tied at 20, made a FG

Bills: Tied at 17, punt

2024:
Chargers: Tied at 10, punt and a 2 yard Perine TD

Bucs, Tied at 17, P.Mahomes pass short left to D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN
That looks like a much larger sample size than Burrow has never thrown a 4th qtr TD in a playoff game (7 games) that i keep hearing about over and over and over and over, etc etc.
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Old Yesterday, 11:37 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by rfaulk34 View Post
That looks like a much larger sample size than Burrow has never thrown a 4th qtr TD in a playoff game (7 games) that i keep hearing about over and over and over and over, etc etc.
Fauker, listen to me.

When they compare any qb to Tom Brady it isn’t Joe Burrow, Lamar or Josh Allen.

It’s Patrick Mahomes. It’s been Patrick Mahomes since 2018.

Accept it. Peace.
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