***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

Kinda brings it back to the iceberg theory. It's huge underneath, small up top of what we see.

There's tons of infections or previous infections that have recovered underneath, we see the hospitalizations and deaths up top. Looking at the numbers of the elderly this wipes out, maybe it just rides along in the normal population then gets in these areas and explodes.

For some reason the math doesn't always add up with this thing, hopefully the figure out the part of the equation that is ****ing things up.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's just amazing that the more and more we test, the more and more we find which was always seemingly the case.

So if that is in fact the case, woudln't we have found the same thing a month ago we're finding now?

They might not have had it then, I have not clue though.

Hey O city have you seen if they still think there is a correlation between amount of exposure and severity of symptoms?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Monticore

They might not have had it then, I have not clue though.

Hey O city have you seen if they still think there is a correlation between amount of exposure and severity of symptoms?

Yeah, there's alot out there about that. I'm not sure anything concrete yet.

[mr. tegu]

On nursing homes and rehab facilities a lot of those places put patients in the same room. Sure they have the little curtain but that’s no help. So even if one person in there doesn’t contract it from the staff, they will most certainly get it from their roommate. That’s just one reason why they would get hit so hard.

[O.city]

The nursing home thing is just tough. If you could have testing basically for everyone in and out of there you could maybe help?

[TLO]

Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Monticore

For some reason the math doesn't always add up with this thing, hopefully the figure out the part of the equation that is ****ing things up.

It seems like we have a very high level of variability with regard to testing processes and rates, test accuracy, reactions among those infected, and accuracy of assigning COVID-19 to hospitalizations/deaths. All of those in combination lead to an ugly mess.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by TLO

Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf

What specifically?

[sedated]

Originally Posted by O.city

Theoretically, if it is as infectious and explosive as we think, if it were here then, it would have overwhelmed hospitals sooner than it has.

If there was community spread in January and February in these places as is to be thought, the hospitals didn't seem to realize or notice it.

The ONLY thing that could possibly change with this information is if we found out that an earlier round of unknown infections got us a lot closer to herd immunity. But that would take a few assumptions and testing that 1) is already being attempted and 2) has had rumors of unreliability

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by TLO

Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf

Am I supposed to make a book report here?

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by O.city

Kinda brings it back to the iceberg theory. It's huge underneath, small up top of what we see.

There's tons of infections or previous infections that have recovered underneath, we see the hospitalizations and deaths up top. Looking at the numbers of the elderly this wipes out, maybe it just rides along in the normal population then gets in these areas and explodes.

I've thought this all along, what it changes Deface is we might be closer to herd immunity than previously thought, how close? TBD

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I saw an owner of a nursing home describe how he was able to keep the virus out and that was himself and all his staff have been quarantined in campers parked outside the nursing home for 90 days so far I think.

That is about the only way.

At one of the larger meat packing outbreaks some workers lived with nursing home workers so you can predict how that ended.

I've got a customer who lives in Texas and has a disabled daughter in a home in the kc area.

They have people that have just lived there since this happened to take care of the residents.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf

That is interesting. According to that the R0 is well below 1 everywhere save STL. So the slow opening is probably the way to go as long as you keep it well below 1.

[BleedingRed]

It would also change the mortality rate dramatically/Hospitalization rate dramatically if that were true.

In which case we could adjust models accordingly

[O.city]

Originally Posted by sedated

The ONLY thing that could possibly change with this information is if we found out that an earlier round of unknown infections got us a lot closer to herd immunity. But that would take a few assumptions and testing that 1) is already being attempted and 2) has had rumors of unreliability

But if it were spreading wild in say january or february, I'd think either we'd have noticed it or it's not the case.