***Official 2020 STL Cardinals Thread***

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

My understanding is one day on the roster is technically a full year this season. So in that regard I guess it gets him one step closer to arbitration, etc...

So we burned a year of Carlson this year? I thought we would still have 6 years of control left after this year?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

My understanding is one day on the roster is technically a full year this season. So in that regard I guess it gets him one step closer to arbitration, etc...

So it makes him a little more expensive a little faster. But no, he doesn't have that much upside. He has 2 pitches to speak of and the breaking ball is something in between a slider and a curve that isn't really good at being either of them.

Fastball command is better than it was yesterday but by no means stellar.

Honestly, he's probably a reliever when all is said and done.

What they could have meant had more to do with options than anything. He wasn't on the 40 man, IIRC, and by adding him to the 40, they now have to use one of his option years if they want to send him back down. Additionally, as is Mozeliak's custom, he added Oviedo to the 40 man a year before he really needed to be on there.

He's not ready to be a big league starter and probably wouldn't have been next year either. So the Cardinals could've kept him off the 40 man altogether and he wouldn't have been exposed to the Rule 5. Then you pitch him in AAA in 2021 and maybe add him to the 40 next August if he shows he's ready. Call him up in September.

Then in 2022 you have him in his age 24 season with 3 full years worth of options and 6 years of service time.

Instead you've added him to the 40 in 2020, you'll need to option him next year in all likelihood (probably not this year) and you'll burn this year's service time. So instead in 2022 you have him with 2 option years and 5 years of service time.

Probably nothing critical, but there is some asset value wasted there. And obviously the worst case scenario is what happened with Reyes - a major injury that costs him 2 years when he's actually burning through big-league service time but not pitching, whereas had he been hurt in the minors, that's not big league time used up.

The Reyes thing was such a cluster****.

I hate it when they do that stupid hand wringing, he's such a talent, we cant put him on the field. Thats a Mo thing. The brilliant player sitting on the shelf is way better than actually playing on the field. We cant trade him, he's too valuable. Later he doesn't pan out. And we got shit to show for Mo's Faberge eggs.

[BigRedChief]

Yikes

Pitching is terrifying pic.twitter.com/aUIUK0c4BC

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) August 19, 2020

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Yikes

Pitching is terrifying pic.twitter.com/aUIUK0c4BC

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) August 19, 2020

Schwarber was more rattled than Oviedo.

I'd imagine it all happened so fast for him that he didn't really understand it until it was over. Meanwhile Schwarber was pretty sure he'd just killed a guy for a second there...

[Hoover]

Cubs fan here.

Reality bites sometimes.

Bryant sucks. He had one good year. I'd trade his ass but doubt you would get much of anything.

They made a huge mistake not keeping Castellanos, he and Baez are the two guys I would actually build around. I like Contreras, but he should be a full time DH.

Schwarber, Almora, and Nico, are just dudes. Rizzo is a nice player, but I don't think he is a super star.

As for the pitching staff, Theo has botched it from day one. I'm fine with Lester. He did what he was supposed to do. Hendricks has never bothered me either. But signing Darvish, Chatwood, and trading for this Quintana were train wrecks. I'd feel better about the Cubs if Eloy Jiménez was playing the outfield for them.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Cubs fan here.

Reality bites sometimes.

Bryant sucks. He had one good year. I'd trade his ass but doubt you would get much of anything.

They made a huge mistake not keeping Castellanos, he and Baez are the two guys I would actually build around. I like Contreras, but he should be a full time DH.

Schwarber, Almora, and Nico, are just dudes. Rizzo is a nice player, but I don't think he is a super star.

As for the pitching staff, Theo has botched it from day one. I'm fine with Lester. He did what he was supposed to do. Hendricks has never bothered me either. But signing Darvish, Chatwood, and trading for this Quintana were train wrecks. I'd feel better about the Cubs if Eloy Jiménez was playing the outfield for them.

What in the actual **** did I just read?

Bryant sucks? Build around Baez who has literally only had 1 good year, unlike Bryant. Contreras a full time DH? Rizzo is just nice, not one of the top 3 or 4 1B in the league who consistently reaches 30/100?

The Cubs are individually really talented. The pieces just dont work as a whole. There is virtually nothing to compliment on this team and its been that way since the start of 2017.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by jd1020

The Cubs are individually really talented. The pieces just dont work as a whole. There is virtually nothing to compliment on this team and its been that way since the start of 2017.

Yeah, thats the way my layman's eyes see it too. Good as individuals but together, shit as a team. Thats got to be on Theo.

[Hoover]

Bryant's first three seasons were great, but his last three seasons are nothing to write home about, especially in the RBI category. One those same last three years, Baez has had a better batting average, more RBIs, and has become the heart and soul of the Cubs team.

Rizzo is the one guy who shows up year in and year out. I have no complaints with him.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Bryant's first three seasons were great, but his last three seasons are nothing to write home about, especially in the RBI category. One those same last three years, Baez has had a better batting average, more RBIs, and has become the heart and soul of the Cubs team.

Rizzo is the one guy who shows up year in and year out. I have no complaints with him.

Baez is a fan favorite. He also has a career league average batting line. If the Cubs choose to build around a guy who's single season fluke push for "MVP", which fell miles behind Yelich, instead of a guy who's 4th best in WAR since he entered the league, then the Cubs deserve every ****ing bit of the shitstorm coming their way.

Nearly ever damn tier 1 SS is going to be a FA at the same time as Baez and I already know the one in Cleveland isn't sticking around for another contract. There's absolutely no ****ing way I would take Baez over Lindor.

Baez is a likeable dude and he plays the game the way its supposed to be played. He's just not as good as the hype. His ZiPS line for 2020 is a whopping 92 wRC+. He has all the tools in the world to go with a 5 year old batting eye who's in the backyard with his dad throwing lob pitches with softballs and using a bat thats way too heavy and swinging at absolutely everything.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Hoover

Bryant's first three seasons were great, but his last three seasons are nothing to write home about, especially in the RBI category. One those same last three years, Baez has had a better batting average, more RBIs, and has become the heart and soul of the Cubs team.

Rizzo is the one guy who shows up year in and year out. I have no complaints with him.

Bryant hurt that front shoulder in 2018 and I'm not convinced it's ever fully recovered.

Rolen did the same thing to his shoulder in 2004 and he just never recovered. The shoulder never got its strength back and he never hit for plus power again. He remained a valuable player, but he had to alter his approach. Bryant hasn't seemed able to find a new approach and apart from a white-hot May last season (that he attributed to that 'ax handled bat') he's just not been the same guy since his shoulder came up lame.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Bryant hurt that front shoulder in 2018 and I'm not convinced it's ever fully recovered.

Rolen did the same thing to his shoulder in 2004 and he just never recovered. The shoulder never got its strength back and he never hit for plus power again. He remained a valuable player, but he had to alter his approach. Bryant hasn't seemed able to find a new approach and apart from a white-hot May last season (that he attributed to that 'ax handled bat') he's just not been the same guy since his shoulder came up lame.

Pretty sure he doesn't even use the axe handle anymore.

And to say 2019 was carried by a single month is pretty ignorant. Was May an insane month for him? Yes. He had a 190 wRC+ in May. But, April and August were his only months under 130 wRC+.

Bryant goes into really bad slumps where he literally can't hit a meatball right over the plate and he stays in them for weeks. But he's generally a premier hitter in the league.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Pretty sure he doesn't even use the axe handle anymore.

And to say 2019 was carried by a single month is pretty ignorant. Was May an insane month for him? Yes. He had a 190 wRC+ in May. But, April and August were his only months under 130 wRC+.

Bryant goes into really bad slumps where he literally can't hit a meatball right over the plate and he stays in them for weeks. But he's generally a premier hitter in the league.

But apart from that May, he was a fairly middling power hitter.

That May was the only month he had power similar to his salad days. In other words, "apart from a white-hot May...he's just not been the same guy"

I didn't say he was wholly ineffective (though he was a real hollow offense sort of player over the 2nd half last year), I said he wasn't the power bat he'd been before the shoulder.

He was so good in that May that I was looking to buy one of those damn bats if they hadn't been sold out. I was sold on 'em, man. I don't roll my wrists worth a damn and his testimonials had me convinced that it would force better extension and follow through for me.

Seems like he may not have even believed the hype if he's not using them anymore. Glad I saved my $300...

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But apart from that May, he was a fairly middling power hitter.

That May was the only month he had power similar to his salad days. In other words, "apart from a white-hot May...he's just not been the same guy"

I didn't say he was wholly ineffective (though he was a real hollow offense sort of player over the 2nd half last year), I said he wasn't the power bat he'd been before the shoulder.

He was so good in that May that I was looking to buy one of those damn bats if they hadn't been sold out. I was sold on 'em, man. I don't roll my wrists worth a damn and his testimonials had me convinced that it would force better extension and follow through for me.

Seems like he may not have even believed the hype if he's not using them anymore. Glad I saved my $300...

He's also pretty openly admitted that he isn't comfortable hitting 1/2, but Cubs...

Just need to ride this Ian Happ hot streak and hit him #1 until he ultimately goes back to being Ian Happ.

[DJ's left nut]

You will never ever EVER undo the Chapman trade. He was on fumes in those last few games but the Cubs needed every inning he threw him for that title.

But man - you have to believe Russell would've gotten it done ahead of Gleybar at the time the deal was made. The Cubs just didn't want to shuffle Baez over to SS in the middle of a pennant run. So they took the path of least resistance.

The problem isn't the trades they made - it's who they kept.

At the time, Schwarber had more value than Eloy. Russell had more value than Torres. And the cubs had the roster depth to absorb the loss of both of them while waiting for Torres and Jimenez to arrive. Soler for Davis was a give-up, IMO - they didn't need to make that deal, they just didn't value Soler anymore. They could've gotten their closer in FA, but again - path of least resistance was to trade someone that had fallen out of favor for a rental closer.

Theo just mis-fired on his evaluation of several key guys. I think he expected Schwarber to develop more against lefties and be a more sound hitter (rather than pure slugger) against righties. Obviously he didn't expect Heyward to blow. I think he thought Happ and Almora were going to be better than they are (though Happ's finally playing pretty well).

Hell, you guys could probably really use Cease right now and he was effectively a throw-in in the Quintana deal.

For two years they've needed bullpen help and instead of getting high-quality arms in setup roles and building one from the ground up (guys like Ottavino), they dumped money on a dude in Kimbrel who was aging pretty fast because he was 'an established closer'...

And one of the worst mistakes they made is somewhat offset by the fact it created one of the Cardinals worst mistakes. By letting Fowler walk away, they lost a leadoff hitter who they've been trying to replace with guys ill-suited for the leadoff role ever since. Fowler was happy and comfortable in Chicago and would've likely still been a quality leadoff option for them even as his defense declined (though he still wouldn't be any worse than Schwarber out there).

Theo's made a quite a few mistakes and many of them, much like Mozeliak, were unforced errors.