***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[FD]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think I've asked this in the thread before, but never got an answer. Maybe someone can answer now.

If the outbreak is so bad in the US. And we're so far in the shadows about the actual number of the population that have the virus, why aren't healthcare facilities already overrun? Why aren't old people dying at alarming rates all over the country due to people visiting with the virus like they did in Washington? Forget the testing - how would someone miss all of these obvious signs?

Could it be because it isn't being spread everywhere at an alarming rate?

There is a lag. On Feb 22 there were 62 cases in Italy and everyone was carrying on like normal. Now, less than 2 and half weeks later there are 12,462 reported cases and 827 dead.

[SupDock]

This is a post I made in DC about H1N1 vs Covid-19. Selfishly I'm going to repost it for visibility, as we are talking about how it's not widespread yet. The interesting thing is how under-reported deaths and cases were of H1N1 by WHO and the CDC
The initial report was 20k deaths by the WHO, now we think it was 200k plus.
USA reported 4k deaths in the first 6 months of the virus.

................................

That's not even comparable.*
The first H1N1 case was April 15th. Keep in mind that this disease was first found in the USA, not another country.*

By June 19th ( 2 months later), there were cases in 50 states
Towards the end of June we had 1 million US cases estimated.*

In October H1N1 resurged, and the CDC issued a report estimating 4000 people had died by that point in the USA

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimate...October_17.htm

Report showing 4k deaths.*

WHO stated the pandemic ended August of that next year (16 months total),*

The WHO official tally was 19k deaths across the country, but more recent analysis estimates it was 200k or more

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedici...l.pmed.1001558


The current Covid-19 death toll is 4600*
First case was likely in the beginning of December 2019*** thx Dirk
The First US case was announce January 21st, the first person to person spread was on January 30

This virus is very fresh.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Michael Osterholm:

Fatties are in trouble!

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

good thing I lost 100 lbs. bad thing, I’m still fat.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by FD

There is a lag. On Feb 22 there were 62 cases in Italy and everyone was carrying on like normal. Now, less than 2 and half weeks later there are 12,462 reported cases and 827 dead.

But the first cases were after ours, January 30th and their first death was February 23rd or so

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I would be surprised if there wasn't at least one ventilator for surgical cases, etc. Granted, if no one knows how to run it, why have it.

We had an 4 bed ICU when I started there in 96 and had a ventilator up until maybe 5 years ago, but with funding cuts and cost of healthcare skyrocketing, we have had to lose some services.We have lost our ICU, fluoroscopy suite , echo ultrasound , general surgeon, internal medicine over the years.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Yep, my nose itches all the time now.

The facepalms some of you people (present company excluded) cause me are going to kill me.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by SupDock

This is a post I made in DC about H1N1 vs Covid-19. Selfishly I'm going to repost it for visibility, as we are talking about how it's not widespread yet. The interesting thing is how under-reported deaths and cases were of H1N1 by WHO and the CDC
The initial report was 20k deaths by the WHO, now we think it was 200k plus.
USA reported 4k deaths in the first 6 months of the virus.

................................

That's not even comparable.*
The first H1N1 case was April 15th. Keep in mind that this disease was first found in the USA, not another country.*

By June 19th ( 2 months later), there were cases in 50 states
Towards the end of June we had 1 million US cases estimated.*

In October H1N1 resurged, and the CDC issued a report estimating 4000 people had died by that point in the USA

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimate...October_17.htm

Report showing 4k deaths.*

WHO stated the pandemic ended August of that next year (16 months total),*

The WHO official tally was 19k deaths across the country, but more recent analysis estimates it was 200k or more

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedici...l.pmed.1001558


The current Covid-19 death toll is 4600*
First case was likely in the beginning of 2020
The First US case was announce January 21st, the first person to person spread was on January 30

This virus is very fresh.

According to the time line the first case was on Dec 1, 2019

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...3_January_2020

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We had an 4 bed ICU when I started there in 96 and had a ventilator up until maybe 5 years ago, but with funding cuts and cost of healthcare skyrocketing, we have had to lose some services.We have lost our ICU, fluoroscopy suite , echo ultrasound , general surgeon, internal medicine over the years.

Must
resist
making
comment...

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

According to the time line the first case was on Dec 1, 2019

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...3_January_2020

I stand corrected. Thanks

My stupid fat thumbs gave you a thumbs down. Was meant to be up

[dirk digler]

New study details first known person-to-person coronavirus transmission in the US
From CNN’s Arman Azad

A woman who traveled from China to Illinois in mid-January likely transmitted novel coronavirus to her husband through "prolonged, unprotected contact," according to research released Thursday.

None of more than 300 people who came into contact with the two patients after they showed symptoms, however, developed symptoms of their own.

The findings, published in the medical journal The Lancet, detail the first known transmission of novel coronavirus in the United States, and suggest that the virus may transmit most easily through extended contact with infected people, not brief or casual exposures.

Dr. Jennifer Layden, the chief medical officer of the Chicago Department of Public Health, who co-led the research, stressed that health care providers should still "rapidly triage and isolate individuals suspected of having [the virus]" and notify local health departments.

That's because, according to the study, "infection control measures within the hospital setting and an aggressive public health response" to these first cases might have prevented widespread coronavirus exposure. And it's possible that other patients — those with more severe illness, for example — may transmit the virus more easily.

The researchers cautioned that their findings are preliminary and based on a single transmission event, which might not represent the population at large.

The study had other limitations, too. Because they relied on memories to reconstruct people's movements, investigators might not have identified everybody who came into contact with the coronavirus patients.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I stand corrected. Thanks

My stupid fat thumbs gave you a thumbs down. Was meant to be up

Evened out.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Well, it takes ~14 days for symptoms to show up after infection. That's when people will really start hitting the hospitals. That takes us up to right about now to see potentially explosive case increases. I think the next two to four weeks are going to be indicative to how bad it's going to get.

There were experts (I think experts, maybe just people) claiming the virus had been circulating for 4 to 6 weeks in Washington State before the first diagnosed case. Yet there's still no giant boom. Yes Washington has been hit hard, but it still seems manageable. Nothing super out of control.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

New study details first known person-to-person coronavirus transmission in the US
From CNN’s Arman Azad

Now if this is true what O.City is saying makes sense.

[Donger]

When did the thumb up and down buttons appear?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by SupDock

This is the issue.
Italy has been asking retired doctors to unretire.

Keep in mind most healthcare providers cannot run a ventilator

and they shouldn’t. One millimeter of pressure/ramp off and you can cause castrophic harm. Most go to school for a year. Then do a residency for another year in hospitals. Take boards. Get licsensed before they ever allow you to control the ventilator.

There isn’t RT’s sitting on their ass at home to call in. What we decided was that the RT’s would be at every emergency location running and making changes on the ventilators. We have more nurses than RT’s. The nurses would take care of some of the ancillary but crucial tasks that RT’s do beside run the ventilators.

suctioning out the fluid out of peoples lungs. Get the bloodwork. That would free up the RT’s to run and make changes on more ventilators.