***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Our hospital doesn't even have 1 ventilator, 80 bed hospital mostly chronic care, retirement community, with 2 referral Hospitals who currently are running over capacity, once we start getting hit (only 1 positive) in the area we are ****ed.

Does the hospital have surgical cases or an ED?

[DaneMcCloud]

It's INSANE here in Los Angeles. I'll post more pictures later but this is the first thing I saw entering Costco at 10am:

[TLO]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Most likely it isn't widespread yet, or if it is, the fatality rate isn't as high as we expect.

It's possible that there were cases not initially identified as Covid-19 as well.

Do you believe the steps the country has taken will help keep the numbers in check? If not, what further steps do you think we need to take?

[jjjayb]

Originally Posted by Monticore

My big problem is the more people tell me to not touch my face but more I want to, it's the whole penis thing all over again.

You still can't keep penises off your face?

[Discuss Thrower]

Singapore's Ministry of Health site explaining DORSCON levels

[DaneMcCloud]

Costco was a MADHOUSE. I parked four city blocks away and walked in the rain to the store because there was no parking available:

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

It's INSANE here in Los Angeles. I'll post more pictures later but this is the first thing I saw entering Costco at 10am:

Are they exempting the Spanish speakers? No bueno.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.

Break this down for a simpleton like myself

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Does the hospital have surgical cases or an ED?

We have 24 hr ED run mostly by Family Doctors, we do minor surgical procedures, lumps/bumps and scopes. No internal Medicine on staff. We have 1 respiratory Tech.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by TLO

Do you believe the steps the country has taken will help keep the numbers in check? If not, what further steps do you think we need to take?

I think it will help. I'm not an epidemiologist, but widespread testing makes sense to me, to get people to self quarantine.

Perhaps all the media coverage will get people to wash their hands and stay home if they get sick

I don't know what to think about how certain countries seem more effected than others. The virus not being widespread is the only thing that makes sense to me.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We have 24 hr ED run mostly by Family Doctors, we do minor surgical procedures, lumps/bumps and scopes. No internal Medicine on staff. We have 1 respiratory Tech.

I would be surprised if there wasn't at least one ventilator for surgical cases, etc. Granted, if no one knows how to run it, why have it.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

Break this down for a simpleton like myself

Well, it takes ~14 days for symptoms to show up after infection. That's when people will really start hitting the hospitals. That takes us up to right about now to see potentially explosive case increases. I think the next two to four weeks are going to be indicative to how bad it's going to get.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Costco was a MADHOUSE. I parked four city blocks away and walked in the rain to the store because there was no parking available:

That ISN'T rain, Dane!

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think I've asked this in the thread before, but never got an answer. Maybe someone can answer now.

If the outbreak is so bad in the US. And we're so far in the shadows about the actual number of the population that have the virus, why aren't healthcare facilities already overrun? Why aren't old people dying at alarming rates all over the country due to people visiting with the virus like they did in Washington? Forget the testing - how would someone miss all of these obvious signs?

Could it be because it isn't being spread everywhere at an alarming rate?

Definitely a valid question. The first case in the US was Jan 20th which is over 7 weeks ago. It seemed to move and develop alot faster in China than it has here but I am no expert.

[KChiefs1]

Michael Osterholm:

Fatties are in trouble!

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts