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Old 11-23-2021, 12:45 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is online now
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*** 2022 Mock Draft Megathread ***

Got a mock? Pop it in this thread. Include a picture if you want. Explain your reasoning if you want. Talk about your crushes... if you want.

See a good "pro" mock? Link it up in here and I'll add it to the OP.

Duncan's latest mock

Site
The Draft Network This mock seems to be the most accurate site right now, so I go with this one. I don't pay for it, so no trades here. The plan is for this to be my last mock. I'm going to do it differently, though. I'm running 3 scenarios, and eschewing the 7th round picks, which I would use on a big swings on athleticism and potential. Lotto tickets. James Houston IV is one of them. Note: I used PFF to simulate the trade action, then manually backed up in the 2 "trade" drafts to make selections. Laborious, but gives you best of both worlds, IMO. I think PFF's trade tool is the best, but its board is whack.

Draft slot: 29

Scenario 1: The Chiefs sit pat with their picks and don't make any moves at all. Seems the least likely, but hey...
1.29 | George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue.
1.30 | Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota.
2.50 | George Pickens, WR, Georgia.
2.62 | Travis Jones, DT, UConn.
3.94 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State.
3.103(Comp for Poles) | Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State.
4.121 | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati.
4.135 | Velus Jones, Jr., Tennessee

Scenario 1 Debrief:
So, sitting and waiting to see what comes to me was pretty successful here. The Chiefs FLOOD the defensive line with reinforcements, including at least 1 ready-made starter and two guys who should - at minimum - be in 50/50 rotations at their spots by year end. The Chiefs still get a big outside WR with tantalizing potential. They add some crazy athletic small-school guys, and a mid-round corner who just fits in the system, and a dynamo return man who might be more at WR.

This looks pretty good. Though I have a hard time believing Karlaftis just falls to 29...

Scenario 2: The Chiefs get aggressive and trade up. But for what? In this case, let's go wide receiver. In this run, Kansas City trades picks 29, 62, and a 2023 3rd to Houston for pick 13 and a 2023 4th, because they ARE as obsessed with a WR as people expect and are aggressive to go get him when the board falls right. They then trade BACK from 30 to 35 with the Jets, also including pick 94 in order to get 69 back. Then, last but not least, KC gets aggressive one more time and moves 103 and 121 for 85 from New England, leaving the Chiefs with 6 picks in the first four rounds.
1.13 | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama.
2.35 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State.
2.50 | Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor.
3.69 | Zachary Carter, DT, Florida.
3.85 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
4.135 | Jaylen Watson, CB, Washington State

Scenario 2 Debrief:
I'm not saying KC should do this or even that I think they will (more on that in a few minutes). I'm just saying, man, what will it look like if the Chiefs get aggressive a few times AND are doing the big move for a WR? In this scenario, KC obviously believes Williams is a game-changer at the NFL level and is taking a small 2022 hit to make 2023+ better. The defensive line still gets reinforced, but the reinforcements are all a shade worse than the sit-pat draft option. If you like Kingsley Enagbare or Josh PAscal more than Thomas, I get it and wouldn't quibble at one of those guys instead. Logan Hall, too. Pitre is such a screaming perfect fit for KC's D. Carter is a great physical talent you can dream about coaching up. Williams' utility is known and gives them a true RE option to pair against their higher-drafted bigger guy. Watson is a developmental corner.

I don't love it. I think Pitre makes the secondary a lot better and makes it easier to move on from Thornhill after 22. They have improved the defensive rotation, though one of the DEs would need to outperform expectations in Year 1 to get it to the same level as Scenario 1. In all, giving up the 2 extra selections in the top 4 rounds hurts the depth you can build, but I think it's more like what KC will do.

Scenario 3: Same movements as #2
1.13 | Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State.
2.35 | Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State.
2.50 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
3.69 | Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati.
3.85 | Martin Emerson, CB, Miss. State.
4.135 | Braxton Jones, T, Southern Utah

Scenario 3 Debrief:
This is the type of situation where I see KC paying the price to move up... if Johnson falls this far, I'd be shocked if KC isn't aggressively moving up. With this run, I take a risky but high upside WR in Watson (but you could sub in Pickens or Jahan Dotson or Tolbert or Metchie or Skyy Moore or really any of those tier 2 guys here if you prefer). The secondary reinforcements aren't flashy but are good fits.

In this one, I think the plan has to become adding either another safety or corner in free agency before the season. Ideally, it's someone who can handle the slot and let Sneed thriver on the outside. The DL gets a major boost and some potential star power in Johnson and Williams, and the OL gets another T option and potential long-term starter to develop.

Having completed the exercise and looking at the scenariors, I like the first one the most. But it really does come down to how the board breaks.

Older mocks
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Last edited by duncan_idaho; 04-15-2022 at 10:36 AM..
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Old 03-09-2022, 08:32 AM   #256
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Go run Profootball now and see if you can get a DE without trading up. Christ.
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Old 03-09-2022, 08:37 AM   #257
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McShay’s latest mock just dropped, has us selecting Daxton Hill.
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Old 03-09-2022, 08:44 AM   #258
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Zierlien has us taking Cine.
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Old 03-09-2022, 08:52 AM   #259
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So begins the feedback loop.

No different than the annual "Chiefs are taking an offensive tackle in the 1st" nonsense.

Once the draftniks get a position in their head, they all just start to make the same picks but they vary in the margins.

I don't see KC taking a 1st round safety unless the board absolutely falls to hell. They'll look DE, CB and WR before S. And I don't think it's a particular close question.
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Old 03-09-2022, 09:48 AM   #260
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is online now
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Originally Posted by The Franchise View Post
Go run Profootball now and see if you can get a DE without trading up. Christ.

Cam Thomas and Sam Williams and Boye Mafe and Drake Jackson all were available in each of the 4 I just ran.

Those are the guys that have been likely to be “in range” for a while now. Unless Karlaftis tumbles, it’s always been on of those guys or Ebeketie (who also was available in each one).
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Old 03-09-2022, 09:51 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Cam Thomas and Sam Williams and Boye Mafe and Drake Jackson all were available in each of the 4 I just ran.

Those are the guys that have been likely to be “in range” for a while now. Unless Karlaftis tumbles, it’s always been on of those guys or Ebeketie (who also was available in each one).
Yeah in the first. I mean if you go literally any other position in the first….you’re trying to trade up into the 2nd for the last of them.
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Old 03-09-2022, 09:52 AM   #262
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So begins the feedback loop.

No different than the annual "Chiefs are taking an offensive tackle in the 1st" nonsense.

Once the draftniks get a position in their head, they all just start to make the same picks but they vary in the margins.

I don't see KC taking a 1st round safety unless the board absolutely falls to hell. They'll look DE, CB and WR before S. And I don't think it's a particular close question.
I think it just has to do with Mathieu leaving in FA. We still have Clark on the team so they see safety as this gaping hole.
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Old 03-09-2022, 10:31 AM   #263
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Zierlien has us taking Cine.
Are you sure? I just looked up his most recent mock and he has us taking Wyatt.
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Old 03-09-2022, 10:32 AM   #264
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Are you sure? I just looked up his most recent mock and he has us taking Wyatt.
Sorry...it was Brugler.

And Brugler has us going Cine in the first and Christian Watson in the 2nd.
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Old 03-09-2022, 10:35 AM   #265
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Sorry...it was Brugler.

And Brugler has us going Cine in the first and Christian Watson in the 2nd.
Is he trying to make me JIMP before lunch?

I’d love that if the Chiefs can add a couple pass rushers in free agency.

Hard to see Watson making it to 62 now though.
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Old 03-09-2022, 10:43 AM   #266
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Is he trying to make me JIMP before lunch?

I’d love that if the Chiefs can add a couple pass rushers in free agency.

Hard to see Watson making it to 62 now though.
I'm really warming to Alec Pierce. To the point that I'd be pretty damn disappointed to not get him and I think he may be there late 2nd.

He does a TON of things well.

That 2nd level of WR prospects with some size and speed is REALLY deep. I'm moving more and more towards a hard 'no' on taking a 1st round WR.

DL or CB. There's going to be a good one at our spot. As I get more and more convinced that I'm looking at WR in two, I'm getting more and more comfortable with Williams in the 1st.

Williams and Pierce would be a hell of a start to the draft. There's risk in both guys but man there's a lot of potential. Watson, Pickens, Metchie, etc...
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Old 03-09-2022, 10:45 AM   #267
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I'm really warming to Alec Pierce. To the point that I'd be pretty damn disappointed to not get him and I think he may be there late 2nd.

He does a TON of things well.

That 2nd level of WR prospects with some size and speed is REALLY deep. I'm moving more and more towards a hard 'no' on taking a 1st round WR.

DL or CB. There's going to be a good one at our spot. As I get more and more convinced that I'm looking at WR in two, I'm getting more and more comfortable with Williams in the 1st.

Williams and Pierce would be a hell of a start to the draft. There's risk in both guys but man there's a lot of potential. Watson, Pickens, Metchie, etc...
Pierce is another one of my dudes.

I just need to know what we're going to do in FA and then go from there.

Bring back Ward? CB isn't that huge of a need and can probably grab one in the later rounds.

Sign a high end WR? Draft one day 2 or later.

Grab a couple of DEs? DT, S or WR is probably the pick.

Get a top 5 safety in FA? Grab one in the later rounds and move everything else up.
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Old 03-09-2022, 10:50 AM   #268
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Pierce is another one of my dudes.

I just need to know what we're going to do in FA and then go from there.

Bring back Ward? CB isn't that huge of a need and can probably grab one in the later rounds.

Sign a high end WR? Draft one day 2 or later.

Grab a couple of DEs? DT, S or WR is probably the pick.

Get a top 5 safety in FA? Grab one in the later rounds and move everything else up.
If Ward comes back though, you could still go CB in R1 and slide Snead into a supercharged Mathieu role if the CB hits. As for WR, whatever we do in FA won't change my calculus, to be honest. There's too much similarly situated depth for me to want one in the 1st and likely to be too much value for me to be excited about passing on one in the 2nd.

I've done enough mocks w/ a 1st round safety that FA won't change my calculus there either. Things just get too tangled as the draft goes on if you take a 1st round S.

The DEs we get in FA aren't likely to be long-term answers so we'll need to be hunting for viable guys over the coming years. So if there's a DE available there that I like, I just don't care if we've brought in Clowney and Ingram on short-term deals. I still want that DE.

I just can't see FA results altering how I approach the draft a whole lot.
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Old 03-09-2022, 10:55 AM   #269
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If Ward comes back though, you could still go CB in R1 and slide Snead into a supercharged Mathieu role if the CB hits. As for WR, whatever we do in FA won't change my calculus, to be honest. There's too much similarly situated depth for me to want one in the 1st and likely to be too much value for me to be excited about passing on one in the 2nd.

I've done enough mocks w/ a 1st round safety that FA won't change my calculus there either. Things just get too tangled as the draft goes on if you take a 1st round S.

The DEs we get in FA aren't likely to be long-term answers so we'll need to be hunting for viable guys over the coming years. So if there's a DE available there that I like, I just don't care if we've brought in Clowney and Ingram on short-term deals. I still want that DE.

I just can't see FA results altering how I approach the draft a whole lot.
So DE/CB in the first and WR in the second with maybe a DT sprinkled in.
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Old 03-09-2022, 11:08 AM   #270
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Yup, that'd be my optimal scenario.

1st: DE
2nd: WR
3rd: CB (though I'm not sure the depth exists for a real value play here)
3rd: DT (if we don't trade it with that other 3rd to move up a tick).
4th: Probably a developmental/swing OT.

I would probably also be fine 'layering' DE or WR depending on the board in the 3rd round.
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