***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, I think it's just a mistake.

For sure in some European countries, commas are used in decimals and periods are used in long numbers to make them easier to read. The opposite of what we do in the US, basically.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Pants

For sure in some European countries, commas are used in decimals and periods are used in long numbers to make them easier to read. The opposite of what we do in the US, basically.

He's European, so..

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

You seem not to understand that you have ZERO data for the Flu broken down in that fashion. Where is your chart/article/research that gives the morbidity of the FLU by age group and by lack of any health conditions?

Also, you cannot take 14.3/300,000 because you did not reduce the denominator by the number of unhealthy people vs health people. Much less you are forgetting those numbers were for all citizens, not the infected.

This may be the 5th time I've linked this: AGAIN..

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccinat...ion_qa_pub.htm

With 2009 H1N1, approximately 90% of estimated hospitalizations and 87% of estimated deaths from April through January 16, 2010 occurred in people younger than 65 years old. In contrast, with seasonal influenza, about 60% of seasonal flu-related hospitalizations and 90% of flu-related deaths occur in people 65 years and older. This data confirms that the 2009 H1N1 impacted younger adults and children more than older adults compared to seasonal flu. However, people in all age groups can develop severe illness from either seasonal flu or from 2009 H1N1.

Shoot, we can look to this years Flu...

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...-young-adults/

US flu deaths climb to 8,200: Most cases in children, young adults

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://rt.live/

This is kind of interesting. According to this MO has been at an RO under 1 since April 2. IIRC, RO under 1 leads to the end of the outbreak.

Nice.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

This may be the 5th time I've linked this: AGAIN..

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html


https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccinat...ion_qa_pub.htm



Shoot, we can look to this years Flu...

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...-young-adults/

Aren't healthy people under 65 less likely to die from pretty much any virus/infection? the issue is there are less healthy people than there are ones with underlying conditions.

100% of the people who don't get COVID don't die from COVID.

[Kidd Lex]

https://twitter.com/alexberenson/sta...959064577?s=21

Fascinating data regarding rise in deaths ^^^

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

https://twitter.com/alexberenson/sta...959064577?s=21

Fascinating data regarding rise in deaths ^^^

Incredible data from Oregon suggesting much of the recent rise in all-cause mortality is lockdown rather than #Covid related - that people may simply be dying at home because they are too frightened to go to hospitals and failing to get medical treatment for other conditions. pic.twitter.com/1gY7BwQze7

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 29, 2020

[TLO]

*Hops on soap box*

This is the problem with inaccurate reporting of numbers. I'm assuming the IHME was taking its numbers from John Hopkins when it updated this link below. It took JH's screw up the other day where they reported 60 deaths in Missouri and plugged it into its model. The issue being that there were actually only 14 deaths reported that day, not 60. John Hopkins has since fixed its error.

No other site reported 60 deaths that day either.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/missouri

*Hops off soap box - takes flamethrower and destroys it*

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Aren't healthy people under 65 less likely to die from pretty much any virus/infection? the issue is there are less healthy people than there are ones with underlying conditions.

100% of the people who don't get COVID don't die from COVID.

Please read the links, those years effected the young much more than Covid-19. Here's another one showing the effects of the flu and it

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2...h-children.htm

Study of Flu-Related Deaths in Children Shows Healthy Children at Risk

This just isn't true with Covid-19, there have been very very very few deaths of the young and healthy.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

This may be the 5th time I've linked this: AGAIN..

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html


https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccinat...ion_qa_pub.htm



Shoot, we can look to this years Flu...

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...-young-adults/

What is it you think you are linking to? It's just a generic link to a page about H1N1. All of them are just generic in their info about flu deaths without info about comorbidities. Anyone can see that. for the 5th time then, NOTHING you just linked backs up your claim because it isn't broken down by age groups and health status.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Aren't healthy people under 65 less likely to die from pretty much any virus/infection? the issue is there are less healthy people than there are ones with underlying conditions.

100% of the people who don't get COVID don't die from COVID.

Gonna pick a fight here. What if someone offs themselves due to depression of losing their job or business because everything got shut down because of Covid?

Or

What about people afraid to go to hospitals to get treatment for something non-Covid related and end up dying?


Point is with the way things are right now, you can die because of Covid the same as you can from Covid. And these are the things some doctors and medical professionals have been trying to draw attention too.

[banyon]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Aren't healthy people under 65 less likely to die from pretty much any virus/infection? the issue is there are less healthy people than there are ones with underlying conditions.

100% of the people who don't get COVID don't die from COVID.

EXACTLY.

[banyon]

If you wanted to say, for instance, that there were more Flu deaths for those under 20 than those for COVID19, I think you'd have great data to support that claim.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Please read the links, those years effected the young much more than Covid-19. Here's another one showing the effects of the flu and it

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2...h-children.htm


This just isn't true with Covid-19, there have been very very very few deaths of the young and healthy.

I understand that but doesn't mean it is not affecting other ages brackets more than the flu more or causing more hospitalizations, average days spent on a vent etc.. you are skipping over some of the issues with COVID and focusing on just 1 aspect.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by banyon

EXACTLY.

No, not exactly. There are a lot of covid related deaths where the person never contracted covid.