***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

Exactly there needs to be a middle ground and I think that's what our politicians are striving for.

Meant to prop

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Meant to prop

All good my dude. How you doing with unemployment?

[Titty Meat]

CDC data suggests death toll is under reported

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...oll-total.html

[banyon]

Originally Posted by Rausch

If we reopen it's possible it can spread, fill hospitals, and ruin the economy.

If we don't open it will ruin the economy.

If we reopen a percentage of people will get it and will die. If we stay closed a much lower percentage will get it and will die.

In some ways the choice is to pull off the bandage quickly and eat the pain or pull it slowly and handle one plucked hair at a much longer time. This virus will spread throughout the public. Over time we'll all be exposed. There's no avoiding that.

I wonder if we can take a mixed approach. Keep population dense places more locked down and more rural and spread out populations more open.

I cannot disagree with your logic except to factor in that the delay is beneficial if it gets us to 1) improved testing that can protect workplaces, 2)effective antiviral treatments, or 3) a vaccine.

I think the "gating criteria" listed by Trump's coronavirus task force are perfectly appropriate if we follow them. It just seems like people may not be patient enough to do them.

[banyon]

Damn, I would really like to go to this. I've lived here for 3 years and haven't had a chance because of prior year pine beetle infestations cancelling it. Hopefully we will be in a spot where it can happen:

4th of July fireworks approved for Mount Rushmore celebration



WASHINGTON (KEVN/KOTA TV) - It's official. This year's celebration of America's birthday will go off with a bang at Mount Rushmore.


A previous Fourth of July celebration with fireworks over Mt. Rushmore. (KOTA TV)
The National Park Service on Tuesday announced the return of Fourth of July celebration fireworks after an 11-year absence due to fire concerns. This comes after an environmental assessment found the fireworks would not cause a significant impact.

Of course, the celebration is contingent on the pandemic reopening guidelines; as well as the traditional "flies in the ointment," such as weather, security and wildland fire conditions.

"President Trump and I believe that our nation's founding should be celebrated with the same pomp and parade that John Adams described in 1776, and having a fireworks display at Mount Rushmore once again will be an incredible spectacle for the American people to enjoy," Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt said.

"We appreciate all the work President Trump and his team at the Department of the Interior have done to make this celebration possible again for the country," Gov. Kristi Noem added

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by banyon

Until you stop, read, and think about my post, this isn't going to work.

Again, for the 3rd TIME:



Also:



Now what I used were the official numbers from CDC. The adjustments I made were explained 3 times.

If your point is "well the official number is off" then You tell me what denominator you want to use. BUT, you should also adjust the numerator, as we know the deaths are an undercount as well by up to 20-30%, plus they are lagged by two weeks.

Again, YOU made this claim that FLU deaths were higher for under 65 y/o's than COVID19. I am attempting to do the math on your claim for you. You haven't provided anything other than some generic hand waving at some links that you didn't actually run the numerical comparison on.

The links you provide here are just again generic hand waving. They DO NOT include flu deaths by age group. They are also expressed as per 100k rather than as a percentage.

But BASED on your own link you just provided, the deaths would be 128.84 (45-64 y/o) plus 14.3 (18-44) plus 0.0 (0-17)= 143.14 per 300k (the three groups added together). So divide 143.14/300000= .047%

.047 percent there is the mortality rate for the ENTIRE population of NY City of under 65 year olds, whether they are infected or not. And even that number is DOUBLE the flu number.

Let's face it, your idea that the flu is more deadly for under 65 was not well thought out. It's ok. Everyone makes mistakes.

Hey Dolt.... Reread my original post original post slower, maybe you can grasp it then...

Again, Covid-19 is less deadly than some past seasons for the flu for those under 65 and healthy. You obviously are leaving out the healthy part... You see counselor, the flu, in some season as I specifically referred to, H1N1 and 2017-2018, young and healthy were dying with no underlying conditions at a rate much higher than other flu seasons and currently with Covid-19.

So let's go back to the math, 90% of deaths in NY had underlying conditions. Therefore for healthy and under 65, take your deaths times .10. 143.14 x .10 = 14.3/300,000 = .000048 or .0048%. Coincidentally, that would also be the mortality rate for those under age 45 WITH underlying conditions...

AGAIN, was H1N1 and the 2017-2018(remember its 4 months, not 2 years) flu more deadly for those under age 65 and healthy than Covid-19?

It's OK, everyone makes mistakes...

[dlphg9]

Im unsure of how I feel about reopening vs staying closed. I think I lean towards the reopening side. I know everyone wants to talk about a spike if we reopen, but if you came to a rural MO walmart, Clinton for example, you woupd see that it is busier than usual and right before closing time is a nightmare and lines are terribly long. There really is no social distancing taking place there, but it's not like people are dying left and right in Jenry and the surrounding counties.

NYC is the main reason why everything is shut down, but NYC is not like most every other place in the US. They need to be shut down, but everywhere else seems like overkill.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Now now I like to post some funny stuff each day, I forgot that everyone in this thread is super serial.

That was not very funny.....

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

CDC data suggests death toll is under reported

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...oll-total.html

There you go. It's not surprising at all really though. Just look at how every week we learn more symptoms about this thing every week. It's kind of common sense, you're able to go back and look at deaths with more info about the disease. Just like how they're now saying this thing can cause strokes and blood clots.

It goes back to Rain Man's point he made somewhere upstream. It's early but Yale found that US deaths did spike in March higher than they normally would. Not that all those people are coronavirus. But some of them probably are, and some might be people who just didn't go to the hospital with all this going on.

[O.city]

https://rt.live/

This is kind of interesting. According to this MO has been at an RO under 1 since April 2. IIRC, RO under 1 leads to the end of the outbreak.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

CDC data suggests death toll is under reported

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...oll-total.html

I ask this seriously. Are you working from home or are you getting paid to stay at home?

[banyon]

Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief

Hey Dolt.... Reread my original post original post slower, maybe you can grasp it then...

Again, Covid-19 is less deadly than some past seasons for the flu for those under 65 and healthy. You obviously are leaving out the healthy part... You see counselor, the flu, in some season as I specifically referred to, H1N1 and 2017-2018, young and healthy were dying with no underlying conditions at a rate much higher than other flu seasons and currently with Covid-19.

So let's go back to the math, 90% of deaths in NY had underlying conditions. Therefore for healthy and under 65, take your deaths times .10. 143.14 x .10 = 14.3/300,000 = .000048 or .0048%. Coincidentally, that would also be the mortality rate for those under age 45 WITH underlying conditions...

AGAIN, was H1N1 and the 2017-2018(remember its 4 months, not 2 years) flu more deadly for those under age 65 and healthy than Covid-19?

It's OK, everyone makes mistakes...

You seem not to understand that you have ZERO data for the Flu broken down in that fashion. Where is your chart/article/research that gives the morbidity of the FLU by age group and by lack of any health conditions?

Also, you cannot take 14.3/300,000 because you did not reduce the denominator by the number of unhealthy people vs health people. Much less you are forgetting those numbers were for all citizens, not the infected.

[Otter]

[tk13]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Im unsure of how I feel about reopening vs staying closed. I think I lean towards the reopening side. I know everyone wants to talk about a spike if we reopen, but if you came to a rural MO walmart, Clinton for example, you woupd see that it is busier than usual and right before closing time is a nightmare and lines are terribly long. There really is no social distancing taking place there, but it's not like people are dying left and right in Jenry and the surrounding counties.

NYC is the main reason why everything is shut down, but NYC is not like most every other place in the US. They need to be shut down, but everywhere else seems like overkill.

I actually don't think the biggest fear would be places like Walmart, although you're right about that. The problem is sending people back to work to congregate with each other all day. At least at Walmart you're hopefully more "in and out" and not interacting with the same people for long periods of time, because you're moving around the store.

Look at those meat packing plants, nursing homes, cruise ships. Any time this virus gets into a place where it's a group of people who are stuck together for long periods of time, it seems to just wreck the place.

[Gravedigger]

The Government relies on the business owners to reopen their businesses and the business owners rely on the workers to be available. It's easy for us to talk about reopening, but it's going to take alot of time. My CEO has already let us know that he won't rush anyone back to work even if Laura Kelly starts opening Kansas back up. So it's nice to work for a company that has that option, I'm in technology and E-government so being remote these past 6 weeks has been nice, but if they forced me to go back, I would, it'd be fine for me, but every worker's job/situation is different so it's not as easy as flipping a switch or creating a plan. The execution will take much more time. My sister in law runs a boutique and she's going to open when Parsons gives the word, but I told her last night, if you expect things to be like they were with people shopping in your store, think again. Some small businesses will really struggle to get customers back through the doors anytime soon.