***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's why I'm watching Sweden closely. My only real hope that this thing might end early is that we might reach herd immunity faster than expected. I'm certainly not counting on it, but otherwise we have little hope but being in it until a vaccine is widely available.

It's really going to be interesting to see what happens once we start opening things back up.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's why I'm watching Sweden closely. My only real hope that this thing might end early is that we might reach herd immunity faster than expected. I'm certainly not counting on it, but otherwise we have little hope but being in it until a vaccine is widely available.

At this point, I don't really see anything else being feasible.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

By the time you get to the point where you're seeing this many cases, it's exploded way farther than you ever knew.

At this point, it's everywhere.

It doesn't really shed any light on whether the measures we took helped or not , is it still being spread easily even with the measures in place or is it so contagious that if we open up it will just go wild and hospitalizations deaths would skyrocket.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Monticore

It doesn't really shed any light on whether the measures we took helped or not , is it still being spread easily even with the measures in place or is it so contagious that if we open up it will just go wild and hospitalizations deaths would skyrocket.

Pretty much.

A slow opening where you closely monitor things is basically our best bet to figure out what works at this point I guess.

[mr. tegu]

So if 20% of NYC was infected two weeks ago or so you have to assume it’s even higher than that now. The question becomes if it took 4-6 weeks to get 20% how fast until it doubles and then doubles again. Right now it’s likely still growing quickly but eventually as the pool of potentials shrinks it will slow down.

But playing with the 20% infected number in comparison to known numbers you can see how different things might have been two weeks ago when the results are from.

The reported NYC cases are about 150k. The actual number based on a population of 9 million would be 1.8 million. 12 times the reported amount. So you have to ask why is it that so few are known? It implies that about only 8% of people infected get tested assumingely due to not very severe cases for most people. What does this do to the case death rate? It becomes 0.6% for NYC as opposed to the current 7.5%.

For the rest of the state let’s use 10% infected since it wasn’t as high as NYC. Rest of state is about 11 million population so that’s 1.1 million infected with about 100k cases. 11 times the reported amount. About 9% of cases reported. The death rate goes from 0.04% to 0.003% for the rest of state excluding NYC.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

It's why I'm watching Sweden closely. My only real hope that this thing might end early is that we might reach herd immunity faster than expected. I'm certainly not counting on it, but otherwise we have little hope but being in it until a vaccine is widely available.

https://www.rts.ch/info/sciences-tec...-covid-19.html

Sweden has come to believe thats its likely kids are not transmitting the virus.

It would be adults who infect children
According to some virologists, it seems that even when children are tested positive for the virus, their viral load, that is to say roughly the number of viruses circulating in their body, is often very low.

Which would explain why they are - still according to Daniel Koch - bad vectors of the disease. It seems that it is adults who infect children, not the other way around.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by O.city

Pretty much.

A slow opening where you closely monitor things is basically our best bet to figure out what works at this point I guess.

We can't tell when they developed antibodies before/after lock down either .

not sure what I should be rooting for super contagious =bad lowers CFR =good

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Is there hard evidence at this point that the majority of jobs (or a large chunk) won't come back?

Yup.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

So if 20% of NYC was infected two weeks ago or so you have to assume it’s even higher than that now. The question becomes if it took 4-6 weeks to get 20% how fast until it doubles and then doubles again. Right now it’s likely still growing quickly but eventually as the pool of potentials shrinks it will slow down.

But playing with the 20% infected number in comparison to known numbers you can see how different things might have been two weeks ago when the results are from.

The reported NYC cases are about 150k. The actual number based on a population of 9 million would be 1.8 million. 12 times the reported amount. So you have to ask why is it that so few are known? It implies that about only 8% of people infected get tested assumingely due to not very severe cases for most people. What does this do to the case death rate? It becomes 0.6% for NYC as opposed to the current 7.5%.

For the rest of the state let’s use 10% infected since it wasn’t as high as NYC. Rest of state is about 11 million population so that’s 1.1 million infected with about 100k cases. 11 times the reported amount. About 9% of cases reported. The death rate goes from 0.04% to 0.003% for the rest of state excluding NYC.

They wouldn't have been infected two weeks ago, they'd have likely recovered then. I don't remember the time it takes for antibodies to become prevalent though.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

They wouldn't have been infected two weeks ago, they'd have likely recovered then. I don't remember the time it takes for antibodies to become prevalent though.

I think I read 7-10 days, though I'm not certain of that.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Monticore

We can't tell when they developed antibodies before/after lock down either .

not sure what I should be rooting for super contagious =bad lowers CFR =good

The more contagious, the more people needed to have/recover etc to get to herd immunity.

[TLO]

Missouri DHSS Numbers Yesterday:

Cases in Missouri: 6,137

Total Deaths: 208

Patients tested in Missouri (by all labs): approximately 59,266
As of 2:00 p.m. CT, April 22

Missouri numbers today:

Cases in Missouri: 6,321

Total Deaths: 218

Patients tested in Missouri (by all labs): approximately 59,266 (not yet updated for 4/23/20)
As of 2:00 p.m. CT, April 23

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Yup.

By Russ Koesterich, CFA Feb 13, 2015, Last Updated on Feb 16, 2015

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by O.city

They wouldn't have been infected two weeks ago, they'd have likely recovered then. I don't remember the time it takes for antibodies to become prevalent though.

Yeah your right that’s what I meant in the post. Not % of people infected but people who had been infected.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think I read 7-10 days, though I'm not certain of that.

If I remember right, it's IgM first, then IgG and starts around 5-7 days. I am way in the weeds on remembering this though.