***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Right - but if 10% of your herd is immune it could affect the growth curve. Not sure.

Me either. Wish there were an online model to play with.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by GloucesterChief

Except recovering doesn't grant you immunity. You can be re-infected.

Got a source for that one? That would be very unusual for a virus.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Me either. Wish there were an online model to play with.

the number of people required to develop herd immunity varies from disease to disease

For instance, 90 percent plus is required for measles herd immunity.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Got a source for that one? That would be very unusual for a virus.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03...-re-infection/

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Got a source for that one? That would be very unusual for a virus.

It's not true.

**Edit**

I stand corrected. It seems that current data shows it is unlikely, as it was very rare with other coronaviruses, but they have not said for sure

I

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03...-re-infection/

that doesn’t sound good at all. Yikes

Would that herd immunity take care of the reemergence?

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by SupDock

the number of people required to develop herd immunity varies from disease to disease

For instance, 90 percent plus is required for measles herd immunity.

That was the example I was thinking of, but for measles the goal is zero cases. I didn't know if 10% immune population could decrease the rate of increase.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03...-re-infection/

That doesn't really prove anything considering the circumstances. But it certainly should be tested further.

[SupDock]

Most of the articles I am reading indicate that reinfection seems unlikely, but that specific case linked above has some scratching their heads.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Most of the articles I am reading indicate that reinfection seems unlikely, but that specific case linked above has some scratching their heads.

I believe Dr. Fauci said it was unlikely. I'm sure with anything there's always exceptions.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by SupDock

Most of the articles I am reading indicate that reinfection seems unlikely, but that specific case linked above has some scratching their heads.

Seems more like just never actually getting over it to me, but what do I know?

[arrowheadnation]

Originally Posted by The Iron Chief

Sorry if it's already been mentioned.
Tom Hank's and his wife test positive.

The man survived 6 years on an island with a volleyball. I think he's got this.

[tk13]

Sounds like the Jazz are going to have to stay at the Thunder arena overnight.

Reporting with @wojespn: Nurses have finished testing Jazz players who were at the arena and will process it overnight. For now, players are staying at the arena and aren't permitted to fly home. They're exploring chartering buses to get team back to Utah.

— Royce Young (@royceyoung) March 12, 2020

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

So repeat the process of shutting down travel, canceling public events..?

The key metric is the number of seriously ill patients going to hospitals.

Unless a vaccine is successful, most Americans will probably have exposure to the virus in the next year or so.

If the hospitals are in danger of being overwhelmed, extreme measures are probably warranted.

If the number of people who are ill, plus the number likely to soon get ill, are within the capacity of hospitals then things like shutting down travel no longer make sense. At that point self isolating by the sick might be all that is warranted.

But it is worth take extreme measures to avoid what is happening right now in Italy where they have run out of ICU capacity.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by tk13

Sounds like the Jazz are going to have to stay at the Thunder arena overnight.

Reporting with @wojespn: Nurses have finished testing Jazz players who were at the arena and will process it overnight. For now, players are staying at the arena and aren't permitted to fly home. They're exploring chartering buses to get team back to Utah.

— Royce Young (@royceyoung) March 12, 2020

Based on the reporting about lack of testing availability, I wonder how they were able to get the tests so quickly.

Obviously they are the NBA and can access things quicker than the average person, but this is still very immediate access to testing and getting results (which they are supposedly going to receive four hours after the testing).