***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

It shouldn't even be a question at this point as to whether schools will start in the fall. It just sounds like more fear mongering.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by F150

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Revised numbers looking more better....lets hope

The original model had Missouri peaking at around 340 deaths per day, the new one is 17 per day with a total of ~500 now.

To say they got it wrong is like saying the Bears probably shouldn't have taken Trubisky over Mahomes.

[dirk digler]

They are projecting 1903 deaths today let's see how close they get

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The original model had Missouri peaking at around 340 deaths per day, the new one is 17 per day with a total of ~500 now.

To say they got it wrong is like saying the Bears probably shouldn't have taken Trubisky over Mahomes.

I don't think we can evaluate "got it wrong" yet. Their revised model showed Colorado deaths peaking a few days ago and a prediction of yesterday of 14. Instead, 29 died. Whether that means that yesterday was an outlier or the model is now way too LOW remains to be seen.

All we can really conclude is that models are highly volatile and should be used with a grain of salt.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The original model had Missouri peaking at around 340 deaths per day, the new one is 17 per day with a total of ~500 now.

To say they got it wrong is like saying the Bears probably shouldn't have taken Trubisky over Mahomes.

It might have to do with people socially distancing better than expected .

[loochy]

Originally Posted by NewChief

, but he doesn't feel like he's learning much and is worried that he's going to be behind next year, especdially when he starts accelerated math for 7th grade.
He's working his ass off every day, and he's getting his stuff done. I'm, once again, not sure that he's really accomplishing the learning objectives though.

I mean, you can assign them work and have them doing stuff, but that doesn't mean that they're really mastering skills or obtaining the learning objectives.

Well guess what? He's in the same boat as everyone else. He won't be behind because EVERYONE will be behind. At least he is doing the work, which I doubt 50% of the kids are.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

It shouldn't even be a question at this point as to whether schools will start in the fall. It just sounds like more fear mongering.

Especially considering that closing schools now apparently has had minimal impact on stoping the spread of the virus.

Link: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...ntl/index.html

School closures may only have a small effect on stopping coronavirus, study says

Schools around the world have been shut to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, but one team of scientists is questioning whether the havoc the closures are causing to millions of people is actually worth it -- suggesting that the impact on the pandemic might be smaller than previously thought.

A new study by researchers at University College London said recent modeling studies of Covid-19 suggest that school closures alone would prevent only 2% to 4% of deaths -- far fewer than other social distancing interventions.
The research, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health medical journal late on Monday, reviewed 16 studies looking at past epidemics of SARS, MERS and seasonal flu, as well as others modeling the spread of the novel coronavirus, and found that the evidence to support national closures of schools to combat Covid-19 is "very weak."

"Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic," the researchers said.

[Al Bundy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

The original model had Missouri peaking at around 340 deaths per day, the new one is 17 per day with a total of ~500 now.

To say they got it wrong is like saying the Bears probably shouldn't have taken Trubisky over Mahomes.

So the shutting down and social distancing is starting to work?

[Gravedigger]

Until testing ramps up to where everyone is able to be tested that believes they have the symptoms the numbers aren't going to be accurate. These are the cases we know of, in my wife and mine's case, we've had coughing in March, tiredness, aches, but no fever. We were both told by our respective doctor's that there wasn't a test available for us because we didn't meet certain criteria at that time so we didn't test for it. The liklihood is high that there are alot of people out there that can't afford a test, aren't insured, don't have access to a test like we do that might have been exposed to it, or have it and are exposing other people unknowingly at grocery stores, gas stations, or even drive through workers. Just because you see a dip now, in known cases, doesn't mean the Virus is on it's way out.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Especially considering that closing schools now apparently has had minimal impact on stoping the spread of the virus.

Link: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...ntl/index.html

It is always going to be easier to make predictions after the fact, in real time in jan/feb they made a choice based on the info they had , not closing the schools and being wrong would be a lot worse than closing them and being wrong.

[dirk digler]

jeez another cruise ship infected.

Australian and New Zealand passengers will be evacuated from a stricken Antarctic cruise ship Thursday, after almost 60% of those on board tested positive for the coronavirus.

The Greg Mortimer, a cruise liner operated by Australia's Aurora Expeditions, departed March 15 on a voyage to Antarctica and South Georgia. Since the beginning of April, however, the ship has been stuck off the coast of Uruguay, after authorities refused to allow passengers to disembark due to the risk of coronavirus.

Of the 217 people on board, 128 passengers and crew have now tested positive for the virus.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by DaFace

All we can really conclude is that models are highly volatile and should be used with a grain of salt.

Maybe that fact should be considered before blowing up the economy.

[SuperBowl4]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

jeez another cruise ship infected.

Why is anyone going on a cruise during this Pandemic? Because it was cheap?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Maybe that fact should be considered before blowing up the economy.

When you post I literally picture this...



Then you hastily checking the stock prices.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Maybe that fact should be considered before blowing up the economy.

Nobody considered the economy at all they were just trying to get you.