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04-06-2020, 10:33 AM | #17281 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: San Antonio Tx.
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Premier League tentatively set to return in June. Sports!
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Posts: 66,914
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04-06-2020, 10:34 AM | #17282 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that new hospitalizations, ICU admissions and daily intubations are all down for the state.
"Those are all good signs," the governor said." He added that those numbers, "would suggest a possible flattening of the curve." Here were the number of new hospitalizations in New York over the past three days that the governor reported today: Friday, April 3: 1,095 Saturday, April 4: 574 Sunday, April 5: 358 |
Posts: 186,400
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04-06-2020, 10:35 AM | #17283 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
Don't - the math falls apart immediately. |
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Posts: 62,880
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04-06-2020, 10:39 AM | #17284 | |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Posts: 82,625
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04-06-2020, 10:42 AM | #17285 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
There's not a single model that has proven useful throughout this. Remember the IMHE assumed successful social distancing and originally had NYC at greater than 70,000 hospitalized today. They 'updated' their model yesterday and they're still off by 80%. Again - these models haven't proven remotely useful or accurate at any step in this process. They have uncertainly levels so broad as to make them 'body sized' targets at best and even THEN they can't hit the target. They had 4 or 5 standard deviations between the top and bottom of their uncertainty curves and were STILL outside their margins. They were trash. They provided NOTHING to the conversation. Remember about 4 days ago when I punched numbers in excel and posted them on here with nothing more than a logarithmic best fit line and said "hey, the curve's already started to flatten a bit? and you can see it continuing to trend that direct?" That was a GARBAGE attempt at any sort of useful statistical analysis and it was better than what we've gotten from the IMHE model. You could just punch those numbers in, map growth rates and see that we were turning a corner. I just do not understand why we insist on pretending those things have added to the dialogue. |
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Posts: 62,880
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04-06-2020, 10:44 AM | #17286 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Something is off about the parameters they’re setting. I can’t figure it out how they’re that far off
Or maybe I just don’t understand them |
Posts: 82,625
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04-06-2020, 10:46 AM | #17287 | |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 44,073
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04-06-2020, 10:47 AM | #17288 |
Diablo Negro
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Posts: 71,926
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04-06-2020, 10:48 AM | #17289 |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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You asked 3 or 4 days ago why Missouri's 'peak' date was so far out - that's your answer.
If you sit there and hover at 80%, you'll be sitting there at 80% forever. You'll trade peak on the front for drag on the back. In the end your outcomes won't be any better (because you never had anyone the 80% scenario OR the 100% scenario who fell out of the pool for lack of capacity), but you'll have dragged it out unnecessarily. Analogy time!!! What do you know about racing? Key to a fast lap is apexing your corners and being able to time your acceleration coming out of the backside of the turn. And to do that correctly, you need to time your deceleration nearly perfectly so that you dive into that corner and your lateral Gs will hold exactly as strong as needed at the apex of the curve. Then once you hit the apex you can mat the damn thing and come blasting out of the corner. What coming well short of capacity is akin to is simply decelerating too much. Sure, you'll still make the turn, but you'll miss your apex point and you'll end up losing momentum and attack angle. You'll have never risked staying too tight and ending up sliding into the wall on the exit, but you'll also have lousy lap times. It isn't important to just stay beneath the line - it's important to get as close to it as you can comfortably do so because that's how you achieve the best balance of outcomes and time. There's even a comparison for going beyond capacity and 'passing under braking' as an extremely aggressive approach that will also yield worse outcomes but may be necessary if your prioritizing position over a stopwatch, but that's just too far in the weeds at that point. |
Posts: 62,880
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04-06-2020, 10:51 AM | #17290 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Makes sense
You don’t want the ro to be 1 as it puts you in purgatory |
Posts: 82,625
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04-06-2020, 10:51 AM | #17291 |
I love your mom
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Sturgeon Falls, Ontario
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Posts: 7,064
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04-06-2020, 10:51 AM | #17292 | |
Prestige Worldwide
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Spring Hill, KS
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Posts: 18,463
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04-06-2020, 10:51 AM | #17293 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
And we're willing to deal with the very real possibility that, in so doing, they've actually defeated their stated purposes of flattening a curve (they've actually just created a flat line in many cases)? Because again - that doesn't win you anything, it simply delays the conflict. Jesus - imagine applying this approach to anything in medicine or policy. This has NEVER been acceptable and now we're just gonna throw our hands up and say "well everyone sucked at what they were doing, but I guess the ends justify the means..."? I just...can't even respond to that. |
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Posts: 62,880
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04-06-2020, 10:52 AM | #17294 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Discard that thread I posted earlier the dude was fear monger if
That is the contingency plan of it stays bad |
Posts: 82,625
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04-06-2020, 10:52 AM | #17295 |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Posts: 62,880
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